ATL: HERMINE - Models

[tolakram]

Compared with 48 hour Euro

[tolakram]

Losing definition again.

[tolakram]

72 hours with comparison to the Euro. Not too far off to be honest.

[RL3AO]

I'm curious about the dynamics behind why the GFS is not developing this in the Bahamas. It looks to be in a fairly favorable environment near an upper level anti-cyclone. Really bizarre.

Edit: Maybe spoke too soon.

[Alyono]

it is MUCH better defined in the vorticity fields this time

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm curious about the dynamics behind why the GFS is not developing this in the Bahamas. It looks to be in a fairly favorable environment near an upper level anti-cyclone. Really bizarre.

Edit: Maybe spoke too soon.

GFS continues to show an upper-level low just to the west of 99L between 48-72 hours that is imparting westerly shear.

[BigB0882]

Is the ridge even stronger than the Euro and maybe slightly placed further west?

[paintplaye]

GFS is trending towards the ECMWF solution and is showing a better stacked system. Upper level environment looks more conductive too.

[Kingarabian]

Next frames should be telling. That's when the Euro makes 99l a TS.

[Steve]

NAM was useless and was showing 99l interacting with Fiona at the end of 84. Running the gfs 850vort you can see it doesn't do much at first but as its getting into the Bahamas it's consolidating a bit. Also, I don't like the angle of the ridge at that point as its oriented NE/SW. At 500mb, the mid/upper-mid level ridge is centered across LA and MS through 3 days. I'll be looking to see how GFS handles both as it completed this run.

[tarheelprogrammer]

ULL shown here still causing shear in the GFS run.

[Stormcenter]

Where's the large blocking high we had protecting all of the Gulf coast a couple of weeks or so ago? We need that back ASAP.

[RL3AO]

Maybe a few differences between 12Z and 18Z. Maybe not enough for genesis though.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

So where does this ULL come from? I see no evidence of any ULL in the current sat pics.

In 96 hour frame above the yellow on the NE coast of Florida is the remnants of Fiona.

[paintplaye]

East coast ridging is a slightly stronger too.

[Aric Dunn]

So where does this ULL come from? I see no evidence of any ULL in the current sat pics.

In 96 hour frame above the yellow on the NE coast of Florida is the remnants of Fiona.

GFS was doing this a few years ago with the spurious lows. not sure why it does that.

[tolakram]

[RL3AO]

So where does this ULL come from? I see no evidence of any ULL in the current sat pics.

In 96 hour frame above the yellow on the NE coast of Florida is the remnants of Fiona.

Trough over the northeast US cuts off and drifts southwest.

[paintplaye]

So where does this ULL come from? I see no evidence of any ULL in the current sat pics.

In 96 hour frame above the yellow on the NE coast of Florida is the remnants of Fiona.

ECMWF had the ULL rotating from the northeast in earlier runs. It has since lost it/decreased it's intensity since then.