ATL: HERMINE - Models

[Aric Dunn]

really all the way to texas.. what is going on with the GFS lol

[stormlover2013]

I think what we can gather from this is the ridge is going to be strong

[Nederlander]

Very weak system targeting Western/Central LA.. Not buying the GFS keeping it so weak as its steered under the ridge..

[AutoPenalti]

GFS in lala land right now, what time is the next Euro run? It should give us something to discuss about IF the Euro keeps it at intensity or even higher.

...or chances are that it will fall with GFS.

[tropicwatch]

I think the GFS has been real slow on the uptake with 99L. First no development now slow development, probably will have to see a few more runs on the GFS before I bite.

[tolakram]

[SunnyThoughts]

I think the GFS has been real slow on the uptake with 99L. First no development now slow development, probably will have to see a few more runs on the GFS before I bite.

Yeah, I think the GFS is slowly coming around...Hopefully by the weekend it will have caught up to the Euro and both showing close to the same landfall and intensity, guess we will see.

[RL3AO]

I wouldn't call that a leap towards the Euro solution but it was a step.

[NDG]

Oh boy, the GFS needs some major fixing if the the Euro proves to be right and the 18z GFS run is making it look like that.

[paintplaye]

While the GFS handling of 99l intensity is still rather interesting, the increase in ridging over the eastern part of the gulf does raise some concern. That is exactly what the ECMWF ensembles were showing too.

[tolakram]

STOP DIRECT LINKING IMAGES!

We have said this a thousand times, either post a link or copy to an image site if you want to embed the image. I've edited 6 posts now that violate our image embedding rule.

[Bocadude85]

I think the GFS has been real slow on the uptake with 99L. First no development now slow development, probably will have to see a few more runs on the GFS before I bite.

Yeah, I think the GFS is slowly coming around...Hopefully by the weekend it will have caught up to the Euro and both showing close to the same landfall and intensity, guess we will see.

The GFS is pretty close to the Euro @ 120 when the first potential US landfall could occur....the GFS is weaker however

[Nederlander]

All the way across the Gulf to Port Arthur as a 1009mb low.. not buying it.. I look for it to strengthen and move back east on next run..

Edited to remove image because I think I just got yelled at....

[NotoSans]

Don't know what the GFS is seeing. Obviously favorable conditions but does not intensify.

[tolakram]

Tracks are now similar in the shorter range, I think that is the takeaway. Looking at the Weatherbell 5 day skill charts, there are times when the GFS comes very close or in one instance out performed the euro but it also has runs where the skill drops below .7. Euro skill never drops below .8. The GFS is erratic, but can it really be wrong this many times in a row?

[Steve]

i never like any system coming up via the Keys or points south of Manatee County or so.

Southern Ridge is strong in this run, but GFS may be overdoing it a bit. At least it's coming into line with the Euro. Unless the Euro moves considerably west in the 00z run; expect the GFS to work its way back.

Edit to say in the short term where it's a pretty good model even on the continent through 5 days.

[stormlover2013]

I'm looking at the trend, this could be nothing no doubt but the trend is west, euro today is 500 miles west than what it was last night...ridging is holding steady

[Nimbus]

Don't know what the GFS is seeing. Obviously favorable conditions but does not intensify.

I have always believed they tweak these models sometimes, this run with the retrograde ridging is modeling the local upper air environment (near the gulf coast) that might be consistent with Gaston pumping an offshore ridge.

Good for analysis but nobody gets excited in the media etc. etc.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

My apologies not posting a link and will keep this brief. The latest GFS run shows 99l coming in to the Keys around Key Largo. I know we are days out but if you split the difference between the GFS and the Euro, any chance it could come in a little north of the Keys.

[TheStormExpert]

18z HWRF not bullish through 42hrs.