ATL: HERMINE - Models

[gatorcane]

NAM 78 hours, strengthening:

[gatorcane]

HUGE difference in the 18Z NAM and 00Z NAM.

00Z:


18Z:

[gatorcane]

The 00Z NAM shows a weak ex-Fiona that looks to get absorbed by 99L. First time we have seen the NAM show this. Look for the GFS to show more development of this system in the Bahamas on the 00Z.

[Javlin]

I guess the Euro keeps this fella moving at a faster pace due to earlier development thus the wind field expanding some,feels the ridge and the ridge provides forward motion?All the other models still have it in the straits or barely the GOM while the Euro and UKMET have a couple hundred miles off the NGOM?

[Kingarabian]

The 00Z NAM shows a weak ex-Fiona that looks to get absorbed by 99L. First time we have seen the NAM show this. Look for the GFS to show more development of this system in the Bahamas on the 00Z.

That's what I'm leaning on as well. But the HWRF and GFDL runs were not too encouraging and they're based on the GFS.

[gatorcane]

00Z NAM 850MB vort loop. Look how it absorbs ex-Fiona to the north, the EC and UKMET have been showing this.

[chaser1]

The 00Z NAM shows a weak ex-Fiona that looks to get absorbed by 99L. First time we have seen the NAM show this. Look for the GFS to show more development of this system in the Bahamas on the 00Z.

But dont you find it a little strange how far east the NAM has 99L? Then again.... it is "the NAM" lol

[AutoPenalti]

00Z NAM 850MB vort loop. Look how it absorbs ex-Fiona to the north, the EC and UKMET have been showing this.

Maybe a possible Fujiwhara?

[gatorcane]

The 00Z NAM shows a weak ex-Fiona that looks to get absorbed by 99L. First time we have seen the NAM show this. Look for the GFS to show more development of this system in the Bahamas on the 00Z.

But dont you find it a little strange how far east the NAM has 99L? Then again.... it is "the NAM" lol

Nope, the ECMWF is just as east if you look at the 12Z and 00Z runs, the NAM is starting the west turn on that run about where the ECMWF has it. While yes it is the NAM, this marks the first run it is showing development and since it uses NCEP data the GFS uses, perhaps the GFS will show even more development on the 00Z run coming up.

[chaser1]

In retrospect, I think the EURO had 99L on a rather NNW trajectory too but right up to that point where it had been forecasting that suddent hard turn to the west.

[chaser1]

The 00Z NAM shows a weak ex-Fiona that looks to get absorbed by 99L. First time we have seen the NAM show this. Look for the GFS to show more development of this system in the Bahamas on the 00Z.

But dont you find it a little strange how far east the NAM has 99L? Then again.... it is "the NAM" lol

Nope, the ECMWF is just as east if you look at the 12Z and 00Z runs, the NAM is starting the west turn on that run about where the ECMWF has it. While yes it is the NAM, this marks the first run it is showing development and since it uses NCEP data the GFS uses, perhaps the GFS will show even more development on the 00Z run coming up.

LOL, yep you beat me to the punch lol

[blazess556]

I would highly recommend never looking at the NAM for tropical forecasting.

[SFLcane]

00Z NAM with an intensifying TC nearing SFL..

[Javlin]

I would highly recommend never looking at the NAM for tropical forecasting.

Yeah but I thought it was good for synoptics CONUS?

[GeneratorPower]

00Z NAM 850MB vort loop. Look how it absorbs ex-Fiona to the north, the EC and UKMET have been showing this.

Maybe a possible Fujiwhara?

More like FujiAbsorba

[South Texas Storms]

I think the 0z GFS will come in stronger and show more development this run.

Also, based on the latest ensembles, anywhere from Texas to the Florida Panhandle remains in play for the possible final landfall of future Hermine. And it could very well be quite an intense storm. Conditions will likely be favorable for strengthening once it gets in the Gulf.

[TheStormExpert]

00Z NAM with an intensifying TC nearing SFL..

99L looks large!

[ConvergenceZone]

So from I'm reading here, it may not be very strong by the time it hits Florida(if it does), but it has a chance of becoming very strong once it's been in the Gulf for a while (if that is indeed where it goes)

[TheStormExpert]

00z GFS running...

[rickybobby]

Is central florida "safe" now?