ATL: HERMINE - Models

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centuryv58
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2281 Postby centuryv58 » Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:30 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:So from I'm reading here, it may not be very strong by the time it hits Florida(if it does), but it has a chance of becoming very strong once it's been in the Gulf for a while (if that is indeed where it goes)


Its pretty certain to hit FL, Can't really reach Gulf without that.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2282 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:31 pm

centuryv58 wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:So from I'm reading here, it may not be very strong by the time it hits Florida(if it does), but it has a chance of becoming very strong once it's been in the Gulf for a while (if that is indeed where it goes)


Its pretty certain to hit FL, Can't really reach Gulf without that.


Unless it tucks into the Florida Straits or crosses Cuba.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2283 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:32 pm

rickybobby wrote:Is central florida "safe" now?


Not by a long shot, it could still come in anywhere from the Florida Keys to Jacksonville, FL looking at the models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2284 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:34 pm

Vorticity looks more defined through 18hrs. on the 00z GFS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2285 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:35 pm

Deeper 99L on the 00z GFS @ 24hrs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2286 Postby blp » Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:37 pm

Given the current Sat Presentation plus this has 120+hrs to intensify before first possible landfall. I think the models are going to go stronger with the current organization trend.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2287 Postby Hammy » Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:37 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Vorticity looks more defined through 18hrs. on the 00z GFS.


Seems like the recon earlier helped initialize this much better than the last few days worth of runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2288 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:39 pm

let wait untill first gulf stream plane go in tooo many crazy models runs now let take good breather see how models get data
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2289 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:39 pm

Hammy wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Vorticity looks more defined through 18hrs. on the 00z GFS.


Seems like the recon earlier helped initialize this much better than the last few days worth of runs.

Recon data likely got into this run, much needed hopefully.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2290 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:41 pm

Evening Brian,

On Sat it's starting to look impressive. Out flow is becoming more apparent, and I see what appears to be a feeder band pulling in form the SW.
Going to be some long days and nights for us.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2291 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:42 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:So from I'm reading here, it may not be very strong by the time it hits Florida(if it does), but it has a chance of becoming very strong once it's been in the Gulf for a while (if that is indeed where it goes)



I thought the Euro was showing a hurricane over Florida? It may not be as strong as what it could be in the gulf, but I remember Katrina did cause some problems in Florida when it first struck there..so IMO anything can happen, so be ready just in case..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2292 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:42 pm

man even this run of the GFS has ex fiona making a come back.. whats happening here. I mean convection has increased around ex fiona ?? does it find a good environment too ?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2293 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:46 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:man even this run of the GFS has ex fiona making a come back.. whats happening here. I mean convection has increased around ex fiona ?? does it find a good environment too ?

Figuring it out is key.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2294 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:48 pm

18z-00z GFS:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2295 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:48 pm

gfs not organizing it still. no northerly motion so will stay weak till maybe gulf unless there is just something inherently wrong with the input data...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2296 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:52 pm

I just can't imagine that the run's of the GFS are accurate. Must be something wrong with it, with most other models showing a stronger system moving up into S. FLA just don't know what it's seeing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2297 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:53 pm

Ex-Fiona is messing with the GFS somehow, it nearly loses the system again @ 60 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2298 Postby blp » Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:54 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Evening Brian,

On Sat it's starting to look impressive. Out flow is becoming more apparent, and I see what appears to be a feeder band pulling in form the SW.
Going to be some long days and nights for us.


Yeah looking good.

Lol, the GFS I think is rubbing it in our face all the times we made fun of it saying the GFS was Gives Florida Storms, or Give Florida Scare model. Now it wants revenge.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2299 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:55 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2300 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:56 pm

Sure looks that way,

But then again I am not all that excited about what the ERUO is showing.
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