BobHarlem wrote:Ex-Fiona is messing with the GFS somehow, it nearly loses the system again @ 60 hours.
I don't see Fiona being problem here. It barely registers. Cannot understand the problem
ATL: HERMINE - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
I don't see Fiona being problem here. It barely registers. Cannot understand the problem
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Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
blp wrote:BobHarlem wrote:Ex-Fiona is messing with the GFS somehow, it nearly loses the system again @ 60 hours.
I don't see Fiona being problem here. It barely registers. Cannot understand the problem
looks like feedback issues, its probably being to generous to Fiona
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
ULL appears again on 0z GFS tonight. Creating shear which seems to keep it in check. Am I seeing that correct looking at shear prediction map.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
If nothing else on a couple of models what is left of Fiona gets absorbed by are fur storm, before crossing over us.
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
well hell I guess drop 50mb of the pressure.. everyone else notice gaston pressure at 1005 mb lol ... there is clearly just something inherently wrong with the gfs the last couple days..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
tarheelprogrammer wrote:ULL appears again on 0z GFS tonight. Creating shear which seems to keep it in check. Am I seeing that correct looking at shear prediction map.
The thing is no other model has the ULL so who knows whats going to happen
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Aric Dunn wrote:well hell I guess drop 50mb of the pressure.. everyone else notice gaston pressure at 1005 mb lol ... there is clearly just something inherently wrong with the gfs the last couple days..
Well the HWRF and the GFDL are on board with it. Right now I just want to see if it continues to act crazy when it gets 99L into the GOM and not develop it despite favorable conditions.
We'll see what the Euro shows @ 00z in regards to Florida.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Something is definitely wrong with the GFS.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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paintplaye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Hurricaneman wrote:tarheelprogrammer wrote:ULL appears again on 0z GFS tonight. Creating shear which seems to keep it in check. Am I seeing that correct looking at shear prediction map.
The thing is no other model has the ULL so who knows whats going to happen
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The ECMWF has had it for the past couple of days but keeps it weaker and slower to progress southwestward.
Last edited by paintplaye on Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
The ERUO comes out at around 3:00 am correct. Won't be staying up for that, but hope in the morning I don't go oh poop.
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
AutoPenalti wrote:Something is definitely wrong with the GFS.
I think the crazy swing in the hwrf may be a different issue. the GFDL is based of the GFS ( at least synoptically) so not surprised with that. I wonder though if its a data error that has been compounded run to run
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Miami Storm Tracker wrote:How far north did it get before the turn?
Doesn't get that far north enough, clear Florida.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Glad to see not much has changed with the ol Good For Something. IDK why it can't get its act together
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
That small ULL is just shearing it up and delays the high from building in.
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paintplaye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
The storm is more vertically stacked this run though so it may help development as it progresses northwestward.
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