ATL: HERMINE - Models

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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2321 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:13 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:So it goes south through the straights?


It goes nowhere...at 120 it's still hanging out east of Andros having Bahama Mamas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2322 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:14 pm

dont buy the ull .. there is nothing there to suggest it forming or sticking around.. we will see ..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2323 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:14 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:So it goes south through the straights?


The model run hasn't gotten that far, so far it's semi-stalled over Andros Island in the Bahamas on monday.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2324 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:14 pm

Image
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2325 Postby centuryv58 » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:14 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
Miami Storm Tracker wrote:So it goes south through the straights?


It goes nowhere...at 120 it's still hanging out east of Andros having Bahama Mamas.


Yes and seems stronger there--east of Andros.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2326 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:14 pm

good night all let see models show later today after gulfsteam fly into 99l
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2327 Postby USTropics » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:15 pm

Intensifying at 132 hours, looks like an extreme SE Florida landfall as well coming up:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2328 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:16 pm

I mean its about 12 hours slower but still off the rocker.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2329 Postby blp » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:16 pm

126hr finally starting to consolidate.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2330 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:17 pm

Deepning?

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2331 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:18 pm

What gives I thought it was already making land fall on Sunday. With the high pressure there can't be a weak steering pattern.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2332 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:18 pm

Image

Weak Ts/TD landfall it seems now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2333 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:20 pm

It appears the GFS wants to ride it up along the Eastern Florida coastline...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2334 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:20 pm

MASSIVE west shift for UKMET
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2335 Postby chaser1 » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:20 pm

Two observations here (up to 99hrs. on the GFS); 1) The only explanation I can come up with regarding the GFS is that it might be insisting that the primary vorticity of 99L might be getting drug through mountains and more mountains, and ever disrupting it from organizing. 2) Though unrelated.... I swear that with each model run after model run, I'm almost expecting Gaston to threaten getting trapped under bridging 594 anticyclones over the S.E. Conus and Central Atlantic!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2336 Postby blp » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:21 pm

Much slower still than Euro. Euro is in the middle gulf when GFS is making landfall.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2337 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:22 pm

finally !! it moves north a little.. lol maybe the next few runs will make more sense.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2338 Postby chaser1 » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:22 pm

Alyono wrote:MASSIVE west shift for UKMET


details?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2339 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:22 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Image

Weak Ts/TD landfall it seems now.


The bigger story to me appears that instead of heading straight west into the GOM, this time it seems to break down the ridge and head more WNW or NW. Could have major implications down the road if that verified. Impact to the Gulf coast could me lessened.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2340 Postby SunnyThoughts » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:22 pm

BobHarlem wrote:It appears the GFS wants to ride it up along the Eastern Florida coastline...


Yep, riding up the The East Coast of the Fla Peninsula this run.
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