ATL: HERMINE - Models

[USTropics]

00z Ukmet has development within 24 hours, track is similar to what the 12z ECMWF showed, initial landfall near South Florida, into the GOM, then heading NW:

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 23.1N 76.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.08.2016 23.1N 76.1W WEAK
12UTC 27.08.2016 24.3N 77.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2016 24.9N 79.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2016 25.4N 81.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2016 25.9N 83.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.08.2016 26.4N 85.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.08.2016 26.9N 88.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[Alyono]

MASSIVE west shift for UKMET

details?

it likely ends up south of the MS Delta

[WeatherEmperor]

MASSIVE west shift for UKMET

Can you post details??

[Alyono]

00z Ukmet has development within 24 hours, track is similar to what the 12z ECMWF showed, initial landfall near South Florida, into the GOM, then heading NW:

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 17.7N 62.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 24.08.2016 17.7N 62.7W WEAK
00UTC 25.08.2016 19.1N 65.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2016 20.6N 69.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2016 22.1N 71.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2016 23.1N 73.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.08.2016 24.1N 75.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2016 25.2N 77.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2016 26.2N 79.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2016 27.3N 81.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2016 28.4N 84.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.08.2016 29.5N 87.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

that's 12Z

[Kingarabian]

[img]http:/i.imgur.com/u0wzziZ.png[/img]

Weak Ts/TD landfall it seems now.

The bigger story to me appears that instead of heading straight west into the GOM, this time it seems to break down the ridge and head more WNW or NW. Could have major implications down the road if that verified. Impact to the Gulf coast could me lessened.

Idk what exactly is going to break a ridge that strong...

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Glad you said it Chaser I have been watching that as well. Each run seems to bring Gaston a bit farther west each time.

[Kingarabian]

156hrs...

[Kingarabian]

500mb heights.

[Alyono]

[img]http:/i.imgur.com/u0wzziZ.png[/img]

Weak Ts/TD landfall it seems now.

The bigger story to me appears that instead of heading straight west into the GOM, this time it seems to break down the ridge and head more WNW or NW. Could have major implications down the road if that verified. Impact to the Gulf coast could me lessened.

Idk what exactly is going to break a ridge that strong...

It's the old MU problem of taking TCs through 500mb ridges. When you see that, ignore it. It tried to do the same in Katrina. I remember it forecast Katrina to hit South Carolina

[Steve H.]

You know chaser1, I almost but into the idea that Gaston may get trapped under the ridge,

[USTropics]

For some reason the document updated the time but not the coordinates, it's fixed now:

00z UKMET
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 23.1N 76.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.08.2016 23.1N 76.1W WEAK

12UTC 27.08.2016 24.3N 77.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 28.08.2016 24.9N 79.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 28.08.2016 25.4N 81.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 29.08.2016 25.9N 83.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 29.08.2016 26.4N 85.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 30.08.2016 26.9N 88.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[Siker]

UKMET more west again:

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 23.1N 76.1W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 27.08.2016 23.1N 76.1W WEAK

12UTC 27.08.2016 24.3N 77.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 28.08.2016 24.9N 79.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 28.08.2016 25.4N 81.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 29.08.2016 25.9N 83.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 29.08.2016 26.4N 85.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 30.08.2016 26.9N 88.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[Kingarabian]

The bigger story to me appears that instead of heading straight west into the GOM, this time it seems to break down the ridge and head more WNW or NW. Could have major implications down the road if that verified. Impact to the Gulf coast could me lessened.

Idk what exactly is going to break a ridge that strong...

It's the old MU problem of taking TCs through 500mb ridges. When you see that, ignore it. It tried to do the same in Katrina. I remember it forecast Katrina to hit South Carolina

Did it a lot in the EPAC last month.

[blazess556]

Quite puzzling how the GFS moves a TC into a strong 594 ridge.

[WeatherEmperor]

Does anybody have the 00z Navgem?

[CrazyC83]

00z Ukmet has development within 24 hours, track is similar to what the 12z ECMWF showed, initial landfall near South Florida, into the GOM, then heading NW:

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 23.1N 76.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.08.2016 23.1N 76.1W WEAK
12UTC 27.08.2016 24.3N 77.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2016 24.9N 79.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2016 25.4N 81.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2016 25.9N 83.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.08.2016 26.4N 85.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.08.2016 26.9N 88.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

With that track, it would likely end up in western LA or the upper TX coast.

[stormlover2013]

Can we get a image on the ukmet

[Aric Dunn]

The bigger story to me appears that instead of heading straight west into the GOM, this time it seems to break down the ridge and head more WNW or NW. Could have major implications down the road if that verified. Impact to the Gulf coast could me lessened.

Idk what exactly is going to break a ridge that strong...

It's the old MU problem of taking TCs through 500mb ridges. When you see that, ignore it. It tried to do the same in Katrina. I remember it forecast Katrina to hit South Carolina

the problem... the base code is nearly 30 years old...with patches to help improve it but it just needs to be started from scratch.

[chaser1]

oh, and one more observation. Anyone else notice that on the NCEP GFS site, now they suddenly have forecast positions for EACH HOUR up to 120 hours? Whats that about? On Levi's site, I believe the GFS progresses by 3 hours from the onset

[South Texas Storms]

The UKMET image will be updated on this site in about 15 minutes: http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&stn=PNM&hh=000&map=na&lang=en&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest