ATL: HERMINE - Models

[chaser1]

Idk what exactly is going to break a ridge that strong...

It's the old MU problem of taking TCs through 500mb ridges. When you see that, ignore it. It tried to do the same in Katrina. I remember it forecast Katrina to hit South Carolina

the problem... the base code is nearly 30 years old...with patches to help improve it but it just needs to be started from scratch.

Yeah, moving a developing storm directly into a really stout 594 ridge just looks like the GFS is on crack

[Alyono]

CMC into New Orleans

[chaser1]

CMC into New Orleans

Hey good new "Big Easy"; sounds like that means you're off the hook

[SFLcane]

CMC into New Orleans

First landfall?

[USTropics]

CMC into New Orleans

First landfall?

First landfall is near Central Florida, second landfall NO:

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Well everyone,

Getting late so much for knowing more after that incredible GFS run Lol. Guess I will see what the EURO shows in the morning.

[USTropics]

Some quick plots of the new UKMET run:

[USTropics]

00z GFS has 99L intensifying as it departs the NE FL coast and now recurves OTS:

[stormlover2013]

Is the ukmet even a good model ?

[USTropics]

Is the ukmet even a good model ?

It's considered one of the top three performing models (in addition to the GFS and ECMWF) for tropical genesis and track.

[TheHook210]

Interesting first post and I don't know how to link but the 00z GFS I just watched on tropical tidbits takes it up the Florida peninsula. Any one else see that?

[South Texas Storms]

Is the ukmet even a good model ?

It's considered one of the top three performing models (in addition to the GFS and ECMWF) for tropical genesis and track.

Yep, I agree. I actually consider the UKMET close to the top with the Euro when it comes to the tropics.

[stormlover2013]

Gotcha

[Siker]

Canadian after a Cape Canaveral first landfall:

[SFLcane]

UkMET much weaker florida landfall

[Kingarabian]

People kind of brush the UKMET on the side now but it's really reliable in the EPAC. I've been reading that the UKMET office is planning to make it private.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Might have to knock the gfs down a notch or two after this is all over and done with. Goes from Galveston on 18z to up the spine and out to sea on the 0z

[SFLcane]

Hmmm maybe a trend were 99L tracks through Florida straight like Rita 05

[Siker]

UkMET much weaker florida landfall

Much weaker than the Euro, not weaker than its previous run as far as I can see.

[HurriGuy]

I think its time to ask ourselves if the GFS is a good model.

I mean what on Earth was that run?!