ATL: HERMINE - Models

[WeatherEmperor]

Where is the 0z Nogaps?

[SFLcane]

UkMET much weaker florida landfall

Much weaker than the Euro, not weaker than its previous run as far as I can see.

Weaker Canadian and UkMET. Maybe euro drops development lol

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

CMC into New Orleans

Hey good new "Big Easy"; sounds like that means you're off the hook

Dont think people in NOLA take any forecast into their city lightly and especially now with a storm that has at times analoged Katrina.

[Kingarabian]

I think its time to ask ourselves if the GFS is a good model.

I mean what on Earth was that run?!

To be fair it's been a good model the past 5 years. But it'll be a major embarrassment if it misses on the first major hurricane to affect the CONUS in nearly 10 years.

[Hammy]

I think its time to ask ourselves if the GFS is a good model.

I mean what on Earth was that run?!

At least it's on board with development now, meaning it's all but a certainty--this must count for something right?

GFS seems to seriously have a problem overdoing troughs--I can't even count the times it's gotten my hopes up during winter for some massive cold/snow only to end up with upper 60s when the time came.

Weaker Canadian and UkMET. Maybe euro drops development lol

Canadian is basically a joke model around here, and is also badly inconsistent especially with non-developed systems.

[Joe Snow]

I think its time to ask ourselves if the GFS is a good model.

I mean what on Earth was that run?!

That was a little wacky no? a Run through central Florida the out the top? just Be ZAR!

[ronyan]

For comedic relief the GFS shows what appears to be a hurricane or strong tropical storm in the same general area as 99L after 300 hrs.

[Bocadude85]

UkMET much weaker florida landfall

Much weaker than the Euro, not weaker than its previous run as far as I can see.

Weaker Canadian and UkMET. Maybe euro drops development lol

The 12Z Canadian didn't develop this...so it's actually stronger this run

[Siker]

UkMET much weaker florida landfall

Much weaker than the Euro, not weaker than its previous run as far as I can see.

Weaker Canadian and UkMET. Maybe euro drops development lol

The Canadian is stronger and I just said the UKMET is virtually the same.

[SFLcane]

HWRF through 45 hrs nada

[CrazyC83]

We should be glad the CMC is a terrible model, since it stalls Hermine over SE Louisiana for about 2 days. Given what they have been through, that would be beyond comprehension...

[Kingarabian]

Main event is in 45 minutes folks!

[ConvergenceZone]

Wouldn't it be funny if the GFS somehow validates as the actual outcome and we all end up eating crow? lol

[WeatherEmperor]

Wouldn't it be funny if the GFS somehow validates as the actual outcome and we all end up eating crow? lol

This is why tonights Euro run is critical. If it continues to differ from the Gfs then one of them will bust in epic proportions.

[StrongWind]

Main event is in 45 minutes folks!

That's easier for you to say since it's still dinner time there and not way past bedtime.

[chaser1]

CMC into New Orleans

Hey good new "Big Easy"; sounds like that means you're off the hook

Dont think people in NOLA take any forecast into their city lightly and especially now with a storm that has at times analoged Katrina.

No, I would'nt think people in NOLA would take any reasonably respected forecast regarding a storm in their city lightly either. However I am fairly confident that if Pickles The Clown made such a forecast, that most people would be very unlikely to give that forecast much credence at all.

[chaser1]

We should be glad the CMC is a terrible model, since it stalls Hermine over SE Louisiana for about 2 days. Given what they have been through, that would be beyond comprehension...

We might be nearing that time where we begin to have serious debates over what may be the very worst model for tropical systems lol.
Over here behind "door #1" is: The NAM, behind "door #2" is: the Cooky CMC, and finally behind "door #3" it's: GFS (Grossly Freakin' Stupid)

[Bocadude85]

At 96 hours the 0Z HWRF has a 998mb TS in the Central Bahamas

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=99L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016082400&fh=96&xpos=0&ypos=435

[AtlanticWind]

HWRF has what looks like a soon to be hurricane off miami

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Hey good new "Big Easy"; sounds like that means you're off the hook

Dont think people in NOLA take any forecast into their city lightly and especially now with a storm that has at times analoged Katrina.

No, I would'nt think people in NOLA would take any reasonably respected forecast regarding a storm in their city lightly either. However I am fairly confident that if Pickles The Clown made such a forecast, that most people would be very unlikely to give that forecast much credence at all.

lol very true however, theres always that situation that comes up where the unreliable person that is known to always exaggerate or lie and when he finally needs to be believed, no one believes him and leads to bad a situation. definitely not something id want to see for NOLA