ATL: HERMINE - Models

[Kingarabian]

[Hammy]

I'm starting to wonder if this ends up in Brownsville, given how far west it's shifted over the last few runs.

[Kingarabian]

You guys should see how it looks on the Euro IR simulation.

Practically fills up the GOM from West to East, North to South. Crazy.

[ronyan]

You guys should see how it looks on the Euro IR simulation.

Practically fills up the GOM from West to East, North to South. Crazy.

Wow, I thought the flow around it looked large.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

In terms of intensity at landfall, it could make Katrina look like child's play but hopefully New Orleans is much better prepared this time around.

The difference is New Orleans has flood gates open already for all the flooding last week, so if this goes towards New Orleans they would have to close the gates again and that will cause major in-land flooding that Katrina caused some but nothing compared to what this would do. Also if this is a Cat 4/5 when coming in that would be at least 10 times more energy than Katrina.

They better start planning those evacuations soon if those models still hold up for tomorrow.

They should because 6 days out because is not enough time and the situation bill described would require every single person in the greater metropolis area to leave and vacate the city which just makes my heart sink.

[Kingarabian]

Is the GoM warm enough and big enough to support a Cat. 6 (winds over 205)? I think it is warm enough, but will this system stay over open water the whole time or not is the question?

Euro has it fluctuating in strength. Weakens it upon landfall. (924mb to 932 ish)

As most storms do fluctuate some at landfall along the Gulf Coast because the first 200 miles or so from the Coastline of Louisiana is pretty shallow in most parts, so if the storm slows down any on the way in it would weaken some. But from 924 to 932 is probably winds from 165 to 155, which is still pretty damn dangerous, and since South Louisiana (south of the Hwy 190 Corridor) is inundated with water and pretty much flat. I live approximately 35 miles from the coastline as the crow flies but only 18 feet above sea level, so if any levees breach south of me or there is a 20 foot tidal rise with 20 foot waves I could have the GoM close to my back door.

Hard to say how strong the winds would be at 924mb. Really depends on the size of the system. But Andrew had 922mb with 170 mph winds. Katrina had 902 mb peak with 175mph winds.

But you're right. If the models latch on to LA landfall, all of mid=southern LA better be evacuated

[Hammy]

You guys should see how it looks on the Euro IR simulation.

Practically fills up the GOM from West to East, North to South. Crazy.

Wow, I thought the flow around it looked large.

Is that available publicly anywhere?

[Kingarabian]

You guys should see how it looks on the Euro IR simulation.

Practically fills up the GOM from West to East, North to South. Crazy.

Wow, I thought the flow around it looked large.

Is that available publicly anywhere?

I've been trying to search online. All seems to be private.

[blazess556]

The models should get a boost later today:

THE GLOBAL HAWK (NASA 872) IS PLANNING A 24 HOUR
RESEARCH MISSION AROUND TROPICAL STORM GASTON. DEPARTURE
24/1000Z. ALTITUDE 55,000 TO 65,000 FT. 86 DROPS.

[Blinhart]

The models should get a boost later today:

THE GLOBAL HAWK (NASA 872) IS PLANNING A 24 HOUR
RESEARCH MISSION AROUND TROPICAL STORM GASTON. DEPARTURE
24/1000Z. ALTITUDE 55,000 TO 65,000 FT. 86 DROPS.

That is for Gaston, this would be Hermine, I don't know if this would have any influence on the path of Hermine that much, just might show the future path of Gaston, unless they start dropping as soon as they get to altitude until they get all the way out to Gaston and then on the way back to wherever they are taking off from.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like the Euro is simulating for it to have a small eye. Almost as small as Patricia's.

[PTrackerLA]

Woke up for the Euro to see this, good grief. Exactly what I didn't want to see but was afraid over after seeing the ensembles yesterday. Looks like a long week ahead around these parts .

[Blinhart]

Woke up for the Euro to see this, good grief. Exactly what I didn't want to see but was afraid over after seeing the ensembles yesterday. Looks like a long week ahead around these parts .

Tell me about it, and I'm suppose to have a doctor's appointment next Tuesday in New Orleans, who knows if I will be able to make that. I hate hearing Katrina, and Rita. If they start mentioning Andrew and Lilly also with those 2 we can just kiss the land south of us gone.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Woke up for the Euro to see this, good grief. Exactly what I didn't want to see but was afraid over after seeing the ensembles yesterday. Looks like a long week ahead around these parts .

Tell me about it, and I'm suppose to have a doctor's appointment next Tuesday in New Orleans, who knows if I will be able to make that. I hate hearing Katrina, and Rita. If they start mentioning Andrew and Lilly also with those 2 we can just kiss the land south of us gone.

if any of that happens, transferring to Tulane might be out of the question for me. the devastation would take years to comeback from

[HurrMark]

Given the trends of the Euro, one may be interested in how far west can this go. Based on what I found here: https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/, there were only two hurricanes to strike Mexico and develop east of 90W and be located north of the tip of Florida in its lifespan: Inez in 1966 (which almost made it to the Yucatan) and Anita in 1977 (which barely formed east of 90).

[stormlover2013]

Rem 18zgfs has upper Texas coast

[La Breeze]

Woke up for the Euro to see this, good grief. Exactly what I didn't want to see but was afraid over after seeing the ensembles yesterday. Looks like a long week ahead around these parts .

Tell me about it, and I'm suppose to have a doctor's appointment next Tuesday in New Orleans, who knows if I will be able to make that. I hate hearing Katrina, and Rita. If they start mentioning Andrew and Lilly also with those 2 we can just kiss the land south of us gone.

I'm in Kaplan and not liking this at all. Please, no!

[Blown Away]

Seems 06z Bam suite shifted E... Some model disagreement at 06z...

[paintplaye]

Biggest difference with the latest EURO is the faster motion and stronger ridging over the East Coast. This is why it progresses so far west. That is a huge difference from the 12z run earlier yesterday where the ridging was able to retreat. The Ensemble members just came in and are all over the place from Central Mexico to the Florida Peninsula. Looks like low confidence and a wide spread from even the ECMWF. I wouldn't be surprised if we see another swing later today.

[stormwise]

WOW stacks and really ramps up in the GOM the widest isobar is 1007mb.