ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nederlander]

Is there anything that would really preclude this from being named at the next update? It seems to have gotten its act together VERY quickly. I was always skeptical of how low the NHC put this wave's chances of forming.

Yes.. lack of a closed llc. I imagine they will wait for RECON before any upgrades, just to make sure its closed at the surface.

[SouthDadeFish]

Wind shear looks much stronger today than yesterday. If there is a LLC, which it doesn't look like, it would be on the northern edge of the convection.

upload a picture

[CourierPR]

Met. Joe Bastardi posted less than an hour ago on Twitter that he believes this will be a S. Florida hurricane and a huge problem for the Gulf.

[Nederlander]

Wind shear looks much stronger today than yesterday. If there is a LLC, which it doesn't look like, it would be on the northern edge of the convection.

Was about to say the same thing.. Shear is screaming to the north. I think the NHC nailed the percentages. It is not a perfect environment for development. So gradual strengthening, as models were indicating, remains likely.

[SoupBone]

I still don't see any reports of west winds. These invests will fool ya, don't buy into a good looking MLC.

Just getting in range of the better visible loop.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-61&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=12&mapcolor=black

I know it's only a few loops, but damn if that doesn't look like W barely NW movement. Is this thing already south of projected model points?

[Nederlander]

I still don't see any reports of west winds. These invests will fool ya, don't buy into a good looking MLC.

Just getting in range of the better visible loop.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-61&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=12&mapcolor=black

I know it's only a few loops, but damn if that doesn't look like W barely NW movement. Is this thing already south of projected model points?

Way too far out and undeveloped to wobble watch... But it's a little hard to track movement without a fixed center.

[tolakram]

I know it's only a few loops, but damn if that doesn't look like W barely NW movement. Is this thing already south of projected model points?

In my opinion you are looking at the top of a storm that is being sheared and pushed south.

In this image you can see what may be the top of a broad LLC. Clouds at the lower left of the image are moving east.

[SoupBone]

I still don't see any reports of west winds. These invests will fool ya, don't buy into a good looking MLC.

Just getting in range of the better visible loop.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-61&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=12&mapcolor=black

I know it's only a few loops, but damn if that doesn't look like W barely NW movement. Is this thing already south of projected model points?

Way too far out and undeveloped to wobble watch... But it's a little hard to track movement without a fixed center.

Yeah I guess I should have put that as a disclaimer. I'm wobble watching though because of its proximity to Hispaniola. I think it's relevant at the moment.

[NDG]

I still don't see any reports of west winds. These invests will fool ya, don't buy into a good looking MLC.


Just getting in range of the better visible loop.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-61&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=12&mapcolor=black

SW winds now being reported in Guadeloupe.

Conditions at: TFFR observed 24 August 2016 10:30 UTC
Temperature: 24.0°C (75°F)
Dewpoint: 23.0°C (73°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.88 inches Hg (1012.0 mb)
Winds: from the SW (220 degrees) at 9 MPH (8 knots; 4.2 m/s)
Visibility: 3 miles (5 km)
Ceiling: unknown
Clouds: missing
Present Weather: +RA BR (heavy rain, mist)
TFFR 241030Z AUTO 22008KT 5000 +RA BR FEW015/// SCT050/// BKN078/// ///TCU 24/23 Q1012 TEMPO 09015G25KT 2000 TSRA BKN016C

Guadeloupe reported a westerly to NW winds for a few hours last night when the possible LLC was to the NE of them.

[northjaxpro]

I still don't see any reports of west winds. These invests will fool ya, don't buy into a good looking MLC.

Just getting in range of the better visible loop.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-61&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=12&mapcolor=black

I know it's only a few loops, but damn if that doesn't look like W barely NW movement. Is this thing already south of projected model points?

Way too far out and undeveloped to wobble watch... But it's a little hard to track movement without a fixed center.

Exactly. Everyone should wait until the Recon fix can pinpoint the exact LLC. Then everything else should fall into line, especially.the models.

[tolakram]

Yeah I guess I should have put that as a disclaimer. I'm wobble watching though because of its proximity to Hispaniola. I think it's relevant at the moment.

I would place what there is of a center almost due east of PR, possibly a little south of east. I think the chances of significant land interaction at this point is very slim.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Hurricaneman]

Theres the problem, 30kts of shear

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[wxman57]

The center may be on the north side of that convection, up around 17.7-17.8N.

[SouthDadeFish]

Up to 60/80% and may be a TC at anytime:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 241150
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gaston, located about 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands.

Satellite images, surface observations, and radar data indicate
that a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave
is located over the northern Leeward Islands. Showers and
thunderstorms have become more concentrated overnight and are
showing signs of organization, but the system still appears to lack
a well-defined circulation. Although environmental conditions are
currently only marginally conducive for additional development, this
system could become a tropical depression at any time during the
next few days while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph
across the northern Leeward Islands, near or over Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, and the Bahamas. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance late this
morning. Gusty winds, heavy rains, and possible flash floods and
mudslides are expected to occur over portions of the Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern and central
Bahamas. Please consult products issued by your local
meteorological offices for further details. Interests in the
northwestern Bahamas and Florida should also monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown

[northjaxpro]

Theres the problem, 30kts of shear

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

Where is the source of such strong shear? Is there a developing upper.level low in the vicinity?

[Nederlander]

Where is the source of such strong shear? Is there a developing upper.level low in the vicinity?

I believe there is an east/west trough to the north.. someone correct me if I am wrong..

[SFLcane]

The center may be on the north side of that convection, up around 17.7-17.8N.

57 still expecting a hurricane in SFL?

[TheStormExpert]

Latest Wind Shear Analysis.

[Blown Away]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave moving across the Lesser Antilles is analyzed
from 21N66W along 18N63W through a 1009 mb low near 17N61W to
12N59W. This system could become a tropical depression during
the next day or two as it moves west-northwest 13 to 17 kt.
Conditions could become more conducive later this week while the
system moves near the southeastern and central Bahamas.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 15N-18N
between 60W-64W. Scattered showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms are from 17N-21N between 56W-67W. There is a
medium chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours.
Interests from the islands of the northeastern Caribbean Sea to
the Bahamas should continue to monitor the progress of this
system. Gusty winds, heavy rains, and possible flash floods and
mud slides could occur over portions of these areas regardless
of tropical cyclone formation.

[shortwave]

center looks to be around St Martin and Anguilla