ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/768423115877715968

[Blown Away]

JB's Thoughts... I guess dropping the Cat 3 into Carolinas idea...

[centuryv58]

Latest Wind Shear Analysis.

Don't think any forecast has shear a problem with this storm$

[wxman57]

The center may be on the north side of that convection, up around 17.7-17.8N.

57 still expecting a hurricane in SFL?

It sure could be a hurricane before S. Florida.

[BobHarlem]

My best guesstimate for a center is right near St. Maarten, about where the HWRF pegged it for this time of day, lots of the convection "sheared" (for lack of a better terrm) to the south.

[cycloneye]

Up to 2.0.

24/1145 UTC 17.4N 62.1W T2.0/2.0 99L -- Atlantic

[Blown Away]

North Atlantic Ocean Basin: Imagery
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
24/1145 UTC 17.4N 62.1W T2.0/2.0 99L
24/0545 UTC 16.9N 60.9W T1.5/1.5 99L
23/2345 UTC 15.9N 58.1W T1.5/1.5 99L

Gaining latitude and developing...

[Aric Dunn]

its been a TC since around 11pm last night est. was very evident. now we are going to have land interaction and the center is likely to jump around today...

[drezee]

West and South winds across the entire island. Gust to 40+ mph

http://www.meteofrance.gp/observations- ... eloupe/971

Max of 6.1 inches of rain measured

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 241156
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

A tropical wave moving across the Lesser Antilles is analyzed
from 21N66W along 18N63W through a 1009 mb low near 17N61W to
12N59W. This system could become a tropical depression during
the next day or two as it moves west-northwest 13 to 17 kt.
Conditions could become more conducive later this week while the
system moves near the southeastern and central Bahamas.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 15N-18N
between 60W-64W. Scattered showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms are from 17N-21N between 56W-67W. There is a
medium chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours.
Interests from the islands of the northeastern Caribbean Sea to
the Bahamas should continue to monitor the progress of this
system. Gusty winds, heavy rains, and possible flash floods and
mud slides could occur over portions of these areas regardless
of tropical cyclone formation.

[tropicwatch]

On visible satellite it looks like you can see a possible llc near St. Maarten.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=17&lon=-61&type=Animation&info=vis&zoom=1&numframes=15

[SoupBone]

So how differently do any of you think the models will change once an accurate center is determined? Are ya'll thinking more west, more pandhandle?

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 99, 2016082412, , BEST, 0, 172N, 628W, 30, 1009, LO

[StormHunter72]

its been a TC since around 11pm last night est. was very evident. now we are going to have land interaction and the center is likely to jump around today...

Pro mets don't agree.

[Gustywind]

12z Best Track:

AL, 99, 2016082412, , BEST, 0, 172N, 628W, 30, 1009, LO

Interresting, LLC should be on St Kitts now.

[Nederlander]

So how differently do any of you think the models will change once an accurate center is determined? Are ya'll thinking more west, more pandhandle?

Not sure that really matters in the long term as the strength of the ridge will be the major player. As for FL, most of the guidance is suggesting Central to South FL needs to keep an eye out for a potentially developing system in the Bahamas.

[StormHunter72]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 231804
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0200 PM EDT TUE 23 AUGUST 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z AUGUST 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-089 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 24/2330Z,25/0530Z
B. AFXXX 0408A CYCLONE
C. 24/2230Z
D. 19.7N 66.4W
E. 24/2300Z TO 25/0530Z
F. SFC TO 10,000

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 25/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 0508A CYCLONE
C. 25/1000Z
D. 21.2N 69.1W
E. 25/1100Z TO 25/1730Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
B. A WC-130 SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION FOR 26/0000Z.

3. REMARKS:.....ADDED
A. MISSION FOR 23/2330Z AND 24/0530Z CANCELED...ADDED
B. NEXT MISSION ON SUSPECT AREA 24/1500Z.....ADDED
C. THE GLOBAL HAWK (NASA 872) IS PLANNING A 24 HOUR
RESEARCH MISSION AROUND TROPICAL STORM GASTON. DEPARTURE
24/1000Z. ALTITUDE 55,000 TO 65,000 FT. 86 DROPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP

NNNN

[scogor]

And very windy and rainy at Frigate's Bay, St. Kitts right now!!

[BucMan2]

does seem to be a more NW to NNW component at the end of the GFS and HWRF 06Z model runs- or am I mistaken?

[cycloneye]