ATL: HERMINE - Models

[tolakram]

Final frames of the HWRF-P run

[stormlover2013]

Ukmet is on board with euro also

[tgenius]

Wow, the storm really appears to be deepening at the end of that run. I'm hoping that doesn't pan out. It really seems to be a heck of a strong high to push it that much westerly.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

See the gfs decides to once again turn 99 into the heart of that ridge. Question is how much consideration do we start giving it now considering how potentially catastrophic the euro could be? Differences are unreal. One of these two models may never be taken seriously again if they continue at such odds.

I don't really think the GFS and Euro runs are that radically different up to 96 hours. The GFS is a bit weaker but the big difference is the GFS is slower especially near the end of the 96 hour period suggesting maybe that a slower storm would feel a weakness in the ridge by then. On that note 99l hasn't made the progress that the 12z Euro showed yesterday so maybe it is moving slower.

[tolakram]

Latest UKMet run

[StormHunter72]

I agree but models don't even have a proper center to initialize yet. We have seen this before. Euro is the best model out there I agree with that. But it has been wrong before too. I hope and pray this stays away from the northern GOM.

[stormlover2013]

One thing to look like is the upper pattern

[BucMan2]

does seem to be a more NW to NNW component at the end of the GFS and HWRF 06Z model runs- or am I mistaken?

[Alyono]

I agree but models don't even have a proper center to initialize yet. We have seen this before. Euro is the best model out there I agree with that. But it has been wrong before too. I hope and pray this stays away from the northern GOM.

How often does it need to be stated? Dynamical models do not need a center to run properly. They are more than capable of generating their own center. In fact, even after there is a center, the ECMWF does not locate its center at the NHC position. There is no vortex relocation. They use the same data assimilation technique that they use on an invest

[CalmBeforeStorm]

At this point, giving the GFS the time of day is laughable. Its solution just seems wacky. When King Euro shows run after run after run of a major hurricane in the Gulf, you pay attention. The Euro isn't one to cry wolf often. Throw in the fact that the UKMET and Canadian somewhat agree, you throw the GFS out. This is a serious threat to Florida and then the rest of the Gulf states.

Why is that. No model run has verified or not verified at this point? Why give one credence over the other?

[Blown Away]

12z...


06z... More of a spread with some models E of Florida...


00z...

[StormHunter72]

I agree but models don't even have a proper center to initialize yet. We have seen this before. Euro is the best model out there I agree with that. But it has been wrong before too. I hope and pray this stays away from the northern GOM.

How often does it need to be stated? Dynamical models do not need a center to run properly. They are more than capable of generating their own center. In fact, even after there is a center, the ECMWF does not locate its center at the NHC position. There is no vortex relocation. They use the same data assimilation technique that they use on an invest

Every met I have see has said we won't have a good Idea where this will go until it develops. The mets in this area don't hype. Thankfully. They tell it like it is.

[tolakram]

Please STOP the discussion in here. I'm not sure how many times we have to ask nicely.

[MississippiWx]

Please STOP the discussion in here. I'm not sure how many times we have to ask nicely.

Probably several more times for those of us who don't frequent the board very much. Apologies, didn't know.

[TheStormExpert]

12z Intensity Guidance. Trending down a bit.

[gatorcane]

00Z NASA model more bullish and looks into the east-central coast of Florida:

[Emmett_Brown]

00Z NASA model more bullish and looks into the east-central coast of Florida:

https://s9.postimg.org/evfnbz9yn/fp_6pr ... ropatl.png

Interesting. I am not familiar with the NASA model. Anyone know if Is it a variant of any of the global models? Does it show any skill in the tropics?

[Ntxw]

Quick reminder folks since the board will likely get busier in the coming days. I've had to edit some posts quoting images. Please take a few moments if you are quoting another post with an image to remove the IMG tags ([IMG]). I know its an extra step but we don't need to see the same images over and over again especially when there is a high quantity of posts coming.

Thanks for the help!

[ronjon]

Just looked over the differences between 00z ECM and 06z GFS models. First off, the obvious difference in intensity. Second thing is the GFS is almost a full day slower in arriving at S FL (120 hrs vs 96 hrs ECM). Third, GFS breaks down the 500 mb ridge over the Carolina's a little faster than ECM by a full day - largely eliminating the 592 dm or higher ridge over the Carolina's in 144 hrs,

[tolakram]

For clarification about what type of posting is allowed in here please refer to this sticky post.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=118193

We are trying to clean the model threads up so they are more useful when looking back months or years from now. Thanks for your cooperation.