ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[centuryv58]

Shear is increasing drastically, this is going to struggle.

I don't see much in the way of shear as it moves north of Puerto Rico, according to those charts. What are you seeing?

Neither do I.

[AutoPenalti]

Shear is increasing drastically, this is going to struggle.

I don't see much in the way of shear as it moves north of Puerto Rico, according to those charts. What are you seeing?

Look to the right of it as it trades west. It's not a bunch of shear but it looks to be increasing.

[WeatherEmperor]

Shear is increasing drastically, this is going to struggle.

I don't see much in the way of shear as it moves north of Puerto Rico, according to those charts. What are you seeing?

Maybe he is looking at the Gfs which shows a lot of sheer in its path. I don't buy it though

[otowntiger]

Is it this board's general consensus that due to the current conditions and those that could affect it for next couple days that there won't be enough time for it to become anything more than a strong T.S by the time it nears Florida's east coast? Is there any reason for concern that it could strengthen more quickly than that and be something more significant coming into Florida? This also presumes that it does make landfall somewhere on Fl's east coast.

[msbee]

Sint Maarten, Netherlands Antilles
Princess Juliana International Airport
latitude: 18-03N, longitude: 063-07W, elevation: 4 m
Current weather observation
The report was made 23 minutes ago, at 14:00 UTC
Wind 28 kt from the Southeast with gusts up to 42 kt
Temperature 26°C
Humidity 100% Pressure 1012 hPaVisibility: 1000 m Overcast at a height of 1000 ft, Towering cumulus. heavy rain showers

[cycloneye]

Plane departs.

AF308 O2EEA INVEST HDOB 05 20160824
141300 1742N 06449W 0097 00004 0103 +264 +236 000000 000 /// /// 03
141330 1742N 06449W 0091 00004 0098 +259 +233 224003 007 /// /// 03
141400 1742N 06448W 0021 00041 0088 +256 +222 244008 010 /// /// 03
141430 1742N 06446W 9834 00225 0088 +248 +193 262006 008 /// /// 03
141500 1742N 06445W 9608 00433 0097 +232 +172 218004 006 /// /// 03
141530 1742N 06443W 9441 00597 0109 +220 +156 248003 004 /// /// 03
141600 1742N 06441W 9324 00708 0110 +211 +144 256004 005 /// /// 03
141630 1742N 06440W 9098 00912 0104 +201 +127 246005 006 /// /// 03
141700 1741N 06438W 8808 01191 0102 +186 +108 248006 006 /// /// 03
141730 1741N 06436W 8529 01474 0108 +172 +095 235006 006 012 000 03
141800 1741N 06434W 8434 01581 0119 +170 +091 229006 007 011 000 03
141830 1741N 06433W 8424 01602 0127 +170 +090 230005 006 009 000 03
141900 1742N 06431W 8425 01600 0131 +169 +089 230003 006 /// /// 03
141930 1743N 06431W 8428 01600 0131 +167 +095 165002 003 010 000 00
142000 1745N 06431W 8426 01598 0127 +170 +141 126004 004 010 000 03
142030 1747N 06431W 8428 01598 0127 +170 +147 112005 005 010 000 00
142100 1748N 06431W 8428 01597 0127 +170 +147 094006 007 011 000 03
142130 1750N 06431W 8428 01597 0124 +170 +155 088008 009 012 000 03
142200 1752N 06432W 8433 01591 0126 +170 +155 103009 010 012 000 00
142230 1753N 06432W 8426 01598 0123 +171 +151 107010 010 011 000 03
$$

[Bocadude85]

Starting to hear more chatter on the local radio about invest 99L

[WeatherEmperor]

Is it this board's general consensus that due to the current conditions and those that could affect it for next couple days that there won't be enough time for it to become anything more than a strong T.S by the time it nears Florida's east coast? Is there any reason for concern that it could strengthen more quickly than that and be something more significant coming into Florida? This also presumes that it does make landfall somewhere on Fl's east coast.

If I try to average out all the models and intensity guidance I would say the highest likelihood is a TS for Florida but there is a chance it could be a Hurricane. That is why we have to continue to watch because anything can happen and it can happen quickly.

[Nederlander]

Is it this board's general consensus that due to the current conditions and those that could affect it for next couple days that there won't be enough time for it to become anything more than a strong T.S by the time it nears Florida's east coast? Is there any reason for concern that it could strengthen more quickly than that and be something more significant coming into Florida? This also presumes that it does make landfall somewhere on Fl's east coast.

Absolutely not.. The Bahamas are ripe for strengthening.. It's not time to go into panic mode, just keep paying attention to the NHC..

[hohnywx]

Is it this board's general consensus that due to the current conditions and those that could affect it for next couple days that there won't be enough time for it to become anything more than a strong T.S by the time it nears Florida's east coast? Is there any reason for concern that it could strengthen more quickly than that and be something more significant coming into Florida? This also presumes that it does make landfall somewhere on Fl's east coast.

It absolutely could be a hurricane as it approaches Florida. The HWRF strengthens it to a formidable hurricane. Need to watch and see how the next 24 hours go WRT development.

[SFLcane]

Recon is still on the ground from what I can tell. I hope they arent having mechanical problems

Nope is up!

[Bocadude85]

Is it this board's general consensus that due to the current conditions and those that could affect it for next couple days that there won't be enough time for it to become anything more than a strong T.S by the time it nears Florida's east coast? Is there any reason for concern that it could strengthen more quickly than that and be something more significant coming into Florida? This also presumes that it does make landfall somewhere on Fl's east coast.

If I try to average out all the models and intensity guidance I would say the highest likelihood is a TS for Florida but there is a chance it could be a Hurricane. That is why we have to continue to watch because anything can happen and it can happen quickly.

I do agree that if it heads for SFla a storng ts is most likely... though it could easily be a cat 1..really not much difference between a strong TS or a weak Cat 1 weather wise.

[tolakram]

Is it this board's general consensus that due to the current conditions and those that could affect it for next couple days that there won't be enough time for it to become anything more than a strong T.S by the time it nears Florida's east coast? Is there any reason for concern that it could strengthen more quickly than that and be something more significant coming into Florida? This also presumes that it does make landfall somewhere on Fl's east coast.

A couple of pro mets have said it's possible this reaches at least cat 1, remember models are horrible at intensity. What we see are very good conditions near Florida with no real idea how fast it will increase in intensity.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[jlauderdal]

Starting to hear more chatter on the local radio about invest 99L

They are buying water at lowes in pompano..so did i

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk

[Steve]

Is it this board's general consensus that due to the current conditions and those that could affect it for next couple days that there won't be enough time for it to become anything more than a strong T.S by the time it nears Florida's east coast? Is there any reason for concern that it could strengthen more quickly than that and be something more significant coming into Florida? This also presumes that it does make landfall somewhere on Fl's east coast.

It's too early to guess this far out, but I think open wave to Cat 2 are the fringes with most likely a tropical storm or Cat 1. I posted earlier that Joe B thinks "Katrina in Florida" is a good comparison of what to expect. It's just going to be a few days of movement until it gets to the Bahamas. Sometimes it will look better than others. But then once it hooks west (if it does), you could see something intensifying at landfall and just basically plowing across the state with minimal disruption. But it's too early to make that an official guess at this point.

[LarryWx]

26 frame fast scan loop. Speed it up for full effect.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-61&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=26&mapcolor=black

Looking at this visible loop, it looks like a LLC moved WNW passing right over Anguilla and continued WNW from there. Anyone else see this? Anguilla is at 18.15N, 63.1W.

Map of Leewards:
https://www.google.com/search?site=&sou ... sHjcXQM%3A

[dexterlabio]

I don't know with you guys but so far, the Euro nailed this one. The shear tendency map simply supports its model solution...this is not expected to intensify until it passes north of the Caribbean islands and gets closer to Florida...that is when the horror begins.. Low shear environment, steaming hot water, what do we expect?

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241432
AF308 O2EEA INVEST HDOB 06 20160824
142300 1755N 06432W 8428 01597 0125 +170 +151 107010 010 013 000 03
142330 1757N 06432W 8428 01597 0125 +170 +148 107009 010 015 000 00
142400 1758N 06432W 8428 01596 0125 +169 +147 111010 011 015 000 03
142430 1800N 06432W 8426 01597 0127 +164 +149 114010 011 015 000 00
142500 1802N 06432W 8427 01597 0129 +161 +151 109011 013 014 000 03
142530 1803N 06432W 8428 01597 0129 +165 +139 100014 015 013 000 00
142600 1805N 06432W 8427 01597 0128 +166 +136 097016 016 013 000 00
142630 1807N 06432W 8428 01595 0127 +169 +135 099016 017 014 000 00
142700 1808N 06432W 8426 01598 0128 +168 +138 100014 015 013 000 00
142730 1810N 06432W 8440 01585 0128 +168 +139 098015 016 013 000 03
142800 1812N 06432W 8432 01594 0130 +165 +142 097016 017 014 000 00
142830 1813N 06432W 8432 01595 0128 +168 +147 092017 018 015 000 03
142900 1815N 06432W 8486 01555 0143 +170 +149 091018 019 015 000 03
142930 1817N 06432W 8833 01210 0150 +188 +162 091019 020 016 000 03
143000 1818N 06432W 9144 00909 0146 +204 +171 097018 020 018 000 00
143030 1820N 06430W 9470 00603 0145 +223 +173 100018 018 018 000 00
143100 1821N 06429W 9669 00399 0118 +236 +165 098019 019 019 002 00
143130 1822N 06428W 9666 00392 0111 +231 +171 092014 018 028 001 00
143200 1823N 06427W 9665 00396 0112 +235 +170 089016 018 021 001 00
143230 1824N 06426W 9669 00392 0111 +239 +165 090017 017 023 000 00
$$

[cycloneye]

[tarheelprogrammer]

This storm appears to be moving very quickly when looking at a visible satellite loop. Clearly there is an llc present and it is plain to see. NHC will likely upgrade or am I incorrect in assuming so?