ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[stormlover2013]

I think they could upgrade, to just get everyone's attention to start planning accordingly

[JaxGator]

I don't know with you guys but so far, the Euro nailed this one. The shear tendency map simply supports its model solution...this is not expected to intensify until it passes north of the Caribbean islands and gets closer to Florida...that is when the horror begins.. Low shear environment, steaming hot water, what do we expect?

Probably something we haven't seen in a long time...

[SeGaBob]

I don't think they will honestly...

[otowntiger]

Thanks for all the replies to my question re: Florida strike. It seems to me that we here need to be vigilant for sure but I just can't seem to get too worried since there seem to be a lot of things working against it intensity wise until it is pretty much at Florida's door step. I know the area in the Bahamas looks like it could be favorable but it will depend on how much if any organization it is able to do before it gets there, I would think. I know up here in the center of the state we look to be much less vulnerable but I think I will do some preliminary supply gathering just in case and for the rest of the season.

[ronyan]

I think they could upgrade, to just get everyone's attention to start planning accordingly

I don't believe the NHC would do an upgrade for that purpose. That need to have good evidence/data of a closed LLC.

[Bocadude85]

One thing I have been thinking about is the Florida Keys, we are about 4 days away from a possible landfall in S.Fla. I am not sure what the evacuation plan for a Cat 1 down there is but doesnt it usually take 36-48 hours to evacuate the Keys? I would think the longer this takes to get classified the more of a nightmare this will be for Monroe County EOC.

[SouthFLTropics]

I think they could upgrade, to just get everyone's attention to start planning accordingly

Not sure we get an upgrade yet since it lacks sustainable convection around the center. If the shear abates and it starts to build they could always issue a special advisory. Don't have to wait until 11 or 5 to do it.

[stormlover2013]

gotcha!!!!

[centuryv58]

I think they could upgrade, to just get everyone's attention to start planning accordingly

Not sure we get an upgrade yet since it lacks sustainable convection around the center. If the shear abates and it starts to build they could always issue a special advisory. Don't have to wait until 11 or 5 to do it.

Yes. They are super cautious when millions of people and billions of dollars may be at stake.

[Blow_Hard]

With each passing run it would appear as though the trend is clearly westward once it enters the GOM (if it does). Although I am not foolish enough to say folks in the Panhandle are in the clear, it does appear as though that is increasingly looking more and more ominous for our friends in Louisiana and Texas. I really hate for the folks who are still dealing with the after effects of the torrential rains that recently inundated the area

[Mouton]

I don't like to bring up the A word hurricane for Fla but once it hit the gulf stream it ramped up at super speed. You need be more concerned about being prepared then betting the odds one way or the other. You will be 100% correct if you are prepared, I'd rather be that then lose a 50-50 bet on intensity or direction. Regarding the GFS solutions, they have been window wipering back and forth between the gulf and atlantic for awhile verses the euro which seems to be set on the GOM. That is the 50-50 bet.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 241442
AF308 O2EEA INVEST HDOB 07 20160824
143300 1825N 06424W 9668 00391 0111 +240 +156 090016 017 021 000 00
143330 1825N 06423W 9668 00392 0110 +240 +155 083018 019 020 000 00
143400 1826N 06422W 9670 00390 0109 +240 +154 084017 018 020 000 00
143430 1827N 06421W 9658 00401 0109 +240 +151 083016 017 018 000 00
143500 1828N 06420W 9659 00398 0102 +239 +149 081016 017 018 000 00
143530 1829N 06419W 9659 00398 0108 +239 +146 088016 017 017 000 03
143600 1830N 06417W 9652 00402 0109 +240 +144 090016 017 017 001 00
143630 1829N 06416W 9661 00397 0108 +240 +143 088016 017 017 000 00
143700 1829N 06414W 9660 00397 0108 +236 +144 084016 017 017 000 00
143730 1829N 06413W 9656 00399 0108 +234 +145 080015 017 017 000 00
143800 1828N 06411W 9670 00391 0111 +234 +147 078015 016 016 000 00
143830 1828N 06410W 9747 00317 0109 +237 +155 070013 015 016 000 00
143900 1828N 06408W 9777 00291 0106 +230 +164 072016 018 025 000 03
143930 1828N 06407W 9758 00305 0105 +236 +160 080019 020 018 000 00
144000 1829N 06406W 9763 00300 0105 +240 +160 077020 022 017 000 00
144030 1829N 06404W 9770 00295 0105 +240 +159 084021 022 024 000 03
144100 1829N 06403W 9777 00294 0104 +240 +159 081022 023 025 000 03
144130 1829N 06401W 9757 00308 0104 +238 +159 082020 022 025 001 03
144200 1828N 06400W 9761 00302 0103 +235 +159 079020 021 026 000 03
144230 1827N 06359W 9767 00296 0104 +229 +160 072017 020 030 000 00

[ronjon]

I don't know with you guys but so far, the Euro nailed this one. The shear tendency map simply supports its model solution...this is not expected to intensify until it passes north of the Caribbean islands and gets closer to Florida...that is when the horror begins.. Low shear environment, steaming hot water, what do we expect?

Think it's a tad bit premature to say one model or another "nailed it". They'll be plenty of time over the coming days to make that assessment considering we don't even have a TD at this point.

[AutoPenalti]

FWIW, today marks the 24th anniversary of Andrew.

[Blown Away]

IMO, LLC very close to 18.5N/63.5W moving quickly to the NW... Gaining serious latitude IMO...
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=black
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[bohaiboy]

Hopefully no RI before it hits FL. However, the GoM is like a hot tub filled with gasoline. Waiting to explode if it has the weather move in that allows it. I would expect oil prices to increase somewhat as oil and gas operators in the Gulf have to start evacuation 3-4 and sometimes 5 days prior to a storms arrival. So I expect evacs to start as early as Friday for non critical personnel. When winds reach 30-40 it is all but impossible to evac because helicopters cannot fly.

A worse possible scenario is that future Hermine ends up at the mouth of the Mississippi River as a Cat 3-4. South LA was ravaged last week by the floods. They don't need this at all.

[SouthFLTropics]

I think they could upgrade, to just get everyone's attention to start planning accordingly

Not sure we get an upgrade yet since it lacks sustainable convection around the center. If the shear abates and it starts to build they could always issue a special advisory. Don't have to wait until 11 or 5 to do it.

Yes. They are super cautious when millions of people and billions of dollars may be at stake.

You bring up a very good point here. Once they upgrade and there is an official forecast it sets in motion many things at the local and state levels of government. I'm sure the Florida EOC and SERT are already well briefed on the situation as well as the local EOC's, but when you get that official forecast is when it really sets in.

Furthermore, if they were to upgrade with a forecasted strike on South Florida and then for some reason it falls apart...Well that just fuels the complacency that we already are seeing in South Florida. Many people have the attitude down here that a storm will "always turn" or "will fall apart" because that's what they always do. South Florida has been in the error cone so many times over the past 11 years and yet no strike. Unfortunately that builds the complacent attitude that many have. Debby a few years ago is the best example of this. Forecasted to strike South Florida as a hurricane. If I recall watches and warnings even went up. And then she took a dive over Hispaniola and Cuba and died. Many people think they will always do that and will not prepare. One day that will come back to bite them.

[LarryWx]

Based on imagery, it had been moving WNW:
North Atlantic Ocean Basin: Imagery
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
24/1145 UTC 17.4N 62.1W T2.0/2.0 99L
24/0545 UTC 16.9N 60.9W T1.5/1.5 99L
23/2345 UTC 15.9N 58.1W T1.5/1.5 99L

Since then, it looks to have moved right over Anguilla, which is at 18.15N, 63.1W. So, it at least appears to have moved 0.75N, 1.0W during that interval. That is between WNW and NW. It has continued to move in that direction since the apparent Anguilla crossing.

[dexterlabio]

Think it's a tad bit premature to say one model or another "nailed it". They'll be plenty of time over the coming days to make that assessment considering we don't even have a TD at this point.

Yeah but what I meant was the development and direction this has been taking so far.. correct me if I'm wrong but the Euro was not even showing a TD at this current timeframe... Not saying that the rest of Euro's solution will perfectly pan out..

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Anyone know other sources for raw recon data?

Where the site is like this:

ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/
http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/

And then the directory and text files for urnt15 for example would be:

/ur/urnt15.knhc..txt

This stopped updating at OB 3:
ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/ur/urnt15.knhc..txt

Simply gone:
http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ur ... .knhc..txt
As is:
http://weather.noaa.gov/

I already made a patch in the system to make the letter "O" in the header (O2EEA INVEST) to become the number "0".

I don't currently process a page like this:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-USAF.shtml?text

Because it contains other data, but I might have to code something to do that.

Having bad luck with the system today.