ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

that circ is beginning to weaken likely going to have multiple vorts produced until the shear lowers.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 241452
AF308 O2EEA INVEST HDOB 08 20160824
144300 1826N 06358W 9757 00303 0101 +233 +155 073014 015 029 000 03
144330 1826N 06356W 9770 00295 0103 +230 +155 086017 018 025 000 00
144400 1827N 06355W 9764 00297 0102 +230 +159 092017 019 025 000 03
144430 1828N 06354W 9765 00295 0100 +230 +160 091021 022 021 000 00
144500 1828N 06352W 9764 00295 0100 +225 +164 090021 025 021 000 00
144530 1829N 06351W 9763 00295 0099 +225 +164 096026 028 027 000 03
144600 1830N 06350W 9808 00255 0101 +227 +169 101032 034 031 000 03
144630 1831N 06349W 9836 00228 0096 +230 +173 103036 038 035 000 03
144700 1831N 06348W 9843 00223 0099 +230 +174 110035 036 034 001 03
144730 1832N 06346W 9886 00186 0100 +230 +180 115039 040 038 000 03
144800 1833N 06345W 9864 00207 0100 +230 +177 120040 041 038 000 03
144830 1834N 06344W 9893 00184 0100 +235 +177 121038 040 034 000 03
144900 1835N 06343W 9885 00190 0101 +235 +174 121037 039 038 000 00
144930 1835N 06342W 9878 00197 0103 +233 +173 122035 037 037 000 03
145000 1834N 06341W 9874 00199 0101 +234 +169 122039 040 039 000 00
145030 1834N 06339W 9884 00190 0102 +235 +170 121034 039 039 000 00
145100 1833N 06338W 9879 00196 0103 +235 +171 120033 034 038 001 03
145130 1832N 06337W 9885 00191 0103 +235 +170 121035 036 039 000 00
145200 1832N 06336W 9882 00195 0105 +235 +169 123036 037 039 000 03
145230 1831N 06335W 9878 00199 0105 +235 +168 124037 037 039 000 03
$$

[cycloneye]

Upgrade?

040 039 000 00

[PTrackerLA]

I think within the next couple of hours you can throw out the "shredded by Hispanola" idea out the window the apparent LLC looks to easily clear the big islands. Not good and the Euro seems spot on so far.

[Weatherboy1]

Is it this board's general consensus that due to the current conditions and those that could affect it for next couple days that there won't be enough time for it to become anything more than a strong T.S by the time it nears Florida's east coast? Is there any reason for concern that it could strengthen more quickly than that and be something more significant coming into Florida? This also presumes that it does make landfall somewhere on Fl's east coast.

It's too early to guess this far out, but I think open wave to Cat 2 are the fringes with most likely a tropical storm or Cat 1. I posted earlier that Joe B thinks "Katrina in Florida" is a good comparison of what to expect. It's just going to be a few days of movement until it gets to the Bahamas. Sometimes it will look better than others. But then once it hooks west (if it does), you could see something intensifying at landfall and just basically plowing across the state with minimal disruption. But it's too early to make that an official guess at this point.

My personal OPINION is that, if anything, 99 could surprise to the upside in terms of strength given the right conditions. Unlike previous systems over the past few years, 99 should dodge interaction with Hispanola. The waters are bathtub warm in its path, and there are no other significant landmasses to disrupt the circulation. After all, the Bahamian islands are mostly small, flat as a pancake, and surrounded by water. Could 99 ultimately spin up to, say, Cat 2 strength? Yes, given the right conditions. Will it? Unfortunately, there truly is no way to know. Given the intensity spread in the modelling, this is going to be a really tough call for forecasters.

[cycloneye]

[Weatherboy1]

Not sure we get an upgrade yet since it lacks sustainable convection around the center. If the shear abates and it starts to build they could always issue a special advisory. Don't have to wait until 11 or 5 to do it.

Yes. They are super cautious when millions of people and billions of dollars may be at stake.

You bring up a very good point here. Once they upgrade and there is an official forecast it sets in motion many things at the local and state levels of government. I'm sure the Florida EOC and SERT are already well briefed on the situation as well as the local EOC's, but when you get that official forecast is when it really sets in.

Furthermore, if they were to upgrade with a forecasted strike on South Florida and then for some reason it falls apart...Well that just fuels the complacency that we already are seeing in South Florida. Many people have the attitude down here that a storm will "always turn" or "will fall apart" because that's what they always do. South Florida has been in the error cone so many times over the past 11 years and yet no strike. Unfortunately that builds the complacent attitude that many have. Debby a few years ago is the best example of this. Forecasted to strike South Florida as a hurricane. If I recall watches and warnings even went up. And then she took a dive over Hispaniola and Cuba and died. Many people think they will always do that and will not prepare. One day that will come back to bite them.

T.S. Erika from last year is another example - forecasted to plow into South FL as a decent hurricane but instead just fell apart after dealing with Hispanola.

[jlauderdal]

I think they could upgrade, to just get everyone's attention to start planning accordingly

Not sure we get an upgrade yet since it lacks sustainable convection around the center. If the shear abates and it starts to build they could always issue a special advisory. Don't have to wait until 11 or 5 to do it.

Yes. They are super cautious when millions of people and billions of dollars may be at stake.

rule of thumb is a million government dollars a mile for evacuations

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 241503
AF308 O2EEA INVEST HDOB 09 20160824
145300 1831N 06334W 9880 00197 0107 +234 +168 125037 037 040 000 03
145330 1831N 06332W 9883 00194 0107 +231 +170 127038 039 040 000 03
145400 1831N 06331W 9882 00197 0108 +230 +170 130038 039 039 001 03
145430 1831N 06330W 9885 00196 0109 +230 +170 129039 042 039 000 00
145500 1831N 06328W 9884 00195 0108 +230 +169 133040 041 042 000 00
145530 1831N 06327W 9884 00197 0111 +229 +167 134043 044 042 000 03
145600 1831N 06326W 9881 00199 0111 +228 +167 137044 046 042 000 03
145630 1830N 06324W 9871 00208 0111 +225 +169 138042 043 045 001 00
145700 1830N 06323W 9879 00202 0112 +227 +169 137040 041 041 002 00
145730 1830N 06322W 9883 00200 0113 +227 +169 140040 041 042 000 00
145800 1830N 06320W 9883 00200 0115 +223 +170 141041 043 043 000 00
145830 1830N 06319W 9884 00201 0116 +222 +172 140043 045 045 000 03
145900 1830N 06318W 9879 00207 0117 +220 +171 141044 045 045 000 03
145930 1830N 06316W 9881 00205 0117 +219 +170 142046 049 045 000 03
150000 1830N 06315W 9884 00202 0117 +221 +167 142046 049 044 000 03
150030 1830N 06314W 9884 00203 0119 +220 +168 144046 047 045 000 03
150100 1830N 06312W 9883 00206 0119 +220 +164 146047 048 046 001 03
150130 1830N 06311W 9884 00206 0121 +220 +167 150045 046 045 000 00
150200 1830N 06309W 9880 00208 0122 +220 +167 150044 046 043 000 03
150230 1830N 06308W 9889 00203 0124 +222 +166 148045 048 044 000 03
$$

[Aric Dunn]

recon not finding much of a defined system yet though they have not sampled the south side... but winds are 45 to 50 kts

[Extratropical94]

Anyone know other sources for raw recon data?
[...]

I don't think there are any other sites with that same path structure (.../ur/urnt15.knhc.txt) where the raw data is uploaded.

If you want to decode data from sites with a text block only, you might want to try the raw data on Levi Cowan's site.

For example: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/data/rec ... INVEST.dat

There's almost no code except for the data itself and a few header lines, but you'll have to split the data up into 10-minute blocks to get each individual HDOB.

[SoupBone]

recon not finding much of a defined system yet though they have not sampled the south side... but winds are 45 to 50 kts

Not unexpected though, considering the models, correct?

[SFLcane]

Aric so might go straight to TS then when it moves into the Bahamas

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/768462531040075776

[Weatherboy1]

So are we seeing FL winds of 40-50 mph here?

[Aric Dunn]

starting to elongate due the very fast low level flow.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[galaxy401]

This storm will certainly kickstart once it forms a closed circulation since TS winds seem to be present. Tomorrow is where things are going to get crazy if not already...

[Alyono]

The strong winds are likely due to the collapsing convection.

Not a sign of development today. May take until tomorrow

[cycloneye]

We have a TS here.

046 045 000 00

[LJFire1467]

45mph was found