ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GalvestonWXGeek]

The strong winds are likely due to the collapsing convection.

Not a sign of development today. May take until tomorrow

Any thoughts to probabilities of a future path across the Gulf of Mexico?

[SoupBone]

I like twitter, but it's sometimes frustrating because of the character limit. Why is this interesting to him?

[BucMan2]

I know we have been hearing a lot about 99L hitting south FL-Is there any variables that could possibly push it further up the coast say
the central part of the state?

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241512
AF308 O2EEA INVEST HDOB 10 20160824
150300 1830N 06307W 9875 00217 0125 +224 +164 150045 046 045 000 03
150330 1830N 06305W 9891 00207 0126 +223 +165 152045 046 040 002 03
150400 1829N 06304W 9881 00214 0126 +220 +163 156044 047 /// /// 03
150430 1828N 06304W 9882 00211 0125 +218 +160 157043 044 /// /// 03
150500 1827N 06303W 9889 00206 0126 +218 +161 157043 045 047 001 03
150530 1827N 06302W 9887 00208 0126 +220 +157 159043 046 044 000 03
150600 1826N 06301W 9895 00207 0128 +219 +159 159043 044 045 000 03
150630 1825N 06301W 9872 00227 0129 +220 +160 162041 044 044 000 03
150700 1824N 06300W 9887 00212 0129 +221 +159 161041 044 042 000 03
150730 1823N 06259W 9887 00213 0132 +222 +160 159039 041 040 001 00
150800 1823N 06257W 9886 00214 0134 +225 +162 159037 040 039 000 00
150830 1822N 06256W 9880 00224 0136 +225 +162 159040 043 038 001 03
150900 1821N 06255W 9879 00224 0135 +226 +157 162040 044 041 000 03
150930 1820N 06254W 9885 00221 0137 +229 +155 165042 044 040 001 03
151000 1820N 06253W 9887 00216 0136 +231 +150 164043 046 042 000 03
151030 1819N 06252W 9888 00217 0138 +232 +147 164043 044 043 000 03
151100 1818N 06251W 9883 00223 0138 +234 +143 165043 045 042 001 03
151130 1817N 06250W 9880 00225 0139 +234 +144 166039 041 041 000 03
151200 1816N 06249W 9884 00223 0139 +235 +142 168039 040 040 000 03
151230 1815N 06248W 9879 00225 0139 +234 +143 169037 038 040 001 03
$$

[TheStormExpert]

I'd personally give 99L another 36-48hrs. and we should have lift-off.

99L very well could be the hurricane that ends the florida hurricane drought and I would not rule out a formidable Cat.1 or even a minimal Cat.2 hurricane coming into SE Florida Sunday or Monday(looking more like extreme SE Florida at the moment).

Beyond that is a wild card as this could go into anywhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast in my opinion. Right now from Brownsville, TX all the way to the Florida Panhandle should monitor and watch the progress and updates from 99L cause a major hurricane strike in between one of these locations along the U.S. Gulf Coast is very possible next week, yet another long standing record will be broken possibly.

[Airboy]

Looks like a center in halfways between Virgin Islands and Saint-Martin?

[dantonlsu]

I'd personally give 99L another 36-48hrs. and we should have lift-off.
Right now from Brownsville, TX all the way to the Florida Panhandle should monitor and watch the progress and updates from 99L cause a major hurricane strike in between one of these locations along the U.S. Gulf Coast is very possible next week, yet another long standing record will be broken possibly.

Agree 100%!

[TheStormExpert]

I think they will wait to upgrade @ 5pm to see if convection can build and sustain a while.

[Aric Dunn]

for it to maintain any sort of a closed circ convection near the center has to keep building.its been too long without convection and inflow to maintain. if we dont get another burst of convection it will dissipate.

[tropicwatch]

Funny the sw to almost west winds they found so far were right where they were taking off from.

[BucMan2]

Would the west central FL still be in play for 99L?

[AutoPenalti]

Regardless of weakening circ, it's one hell of a wave.

[tigerz3030]

Just getting caught up on the discussion and it looks like this is going to wait until last minute to let us all know. Northjaxpro, I'm starting to get a little more concerned again about St Augustine, FL. Thoughts??

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 241522
AF308 O2EEA INVEST HDOB 11 20160824
151300 1815N 06247W 9880 00227 0140 +235 +145 168035 037 040 000 03
151330 1814N 06246W 9884 00225 0140 +235 +148 167033 034 038 000 03
151400 1813N 06245W 9874 00231 0141 +235 +151 168030 032 037 000 00
151430 1812N 06245W 9887 00219 0142 +239 +155 160032 033 036 000 03
151500 1811N 06244W 9873 00235 0141 +236 +160 156028 032 035 000 00
151530 1810N 06243W 9887 00222 0143 +235 +161 157029 030 032 001 00
151600 1808N 06242W 9878 00231 0143 +235 +160 156027 030 033 000 00
151630 1807N 06242W 9889 00223 0145 +235 +160 158029 030 033 000 00
151700 1806N 06242W 9873 00236 0143 +232 +162 153026 028 032 000 00
151730 1805N 06241W 9888 00221 0143 +234 +160 155028 029 031 000 00
151800 1803N 06241W 9873 00235 0144 +233 +161 156027 028 031 000 00
151830 1802N 06240W 9885 00225 0143 +235 +161 154027 029 033 000 03
151900 1801N 06240W 9880 00229 0145 +235 +160 155027 029 034 001 00
151930 1800N 06239W 9877 00233 0145 +235 +163 153025 026 033 000 00
152000 1758N 06239W 9889 00222 0146 +235 +164 152025 026 032 000 03
152030 1757N 06238W 9885 00229 0146 +235 +165 151026 026 031 000 03
152100 1756N 06238W 9885 00228 0147 +235 +163 152027 029 033 000 03
152130 1755N 06238W 9863 00245 0145 +234 +162 150026 026 028 000 00
152200 1754N 06240W 9890 00221 0144 +235 +162 149025 027 029 000 03
152230 1753N 06241W 9880 00229 0143 +235 +164 149024 027 030 000 03
$$

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Would the west central FL still be in play for 99L?

At this point, it is all in play.

[stormlover2013]

mmmm I am not a pro so this is just my opinion, the Ridge looks strong strong, this looks like a south florida and gom system but you know we won't know till we have a center

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Anyone know other sources for raw recon data?
[...]

I don't think there are any other sites with that same path structure (.../ur/urnt15.knhc.txt) where the raw data is uploaded.

If you want to decode data from sites with a text block only, you might want to try the raw data on Levi Cowan's site.

For example: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/data/rec ... INVEST.dat

There's almost no code except for the data itself and a few header lines, but you'll have to split the data up into 10-minute blocks to get each individual HDOB.

Thanks. I was looking at that earlier, wondering where he gets his data from. Maybe he gets it by satellite. I could get it from the NHC archive automatically, but I hate downloading the data too frequently from there because it means hammering their server and mine. I have things designed a certain way and it is hard to do it differently now to get data rapidly.

I see that http://weather.noaa.gov/ was discontinued around yesterday. (based on a Google cache)
Annoucement: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/dm-cgi-bin/chgs ... 051602.txt

I used to use it as my backup for getting data rapidly.

The NOAA site I use is starting to update again somewhat, though still a bit delayed and missing obs:
ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/ur/urnt15.knhc..txt

[tolakram]

30 frame live loop

If it's like a lot of Atlantic sheared storms center will keep reforming closer tot he convection.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-61&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

[Evil Jeremy]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1135 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update discussion on
tropical wave in the Caribbean.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gaston, located about 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands.

1. Updated: An Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft currently
investigating the broad low pressure area and tropical wave near
the northern Leeward Islands has found winds to tropical storm force
in a few squalls near the northernmost Leeward Islands. Squalls to
tropical storm force can be expected over the extreme northern
Leeward Islands and portions of the northern U.S. and British Virgin
Islands this afternoon. The reconnaissance aircraft mission is
ongoing to determine whether or not a tropical cyclone has formed.

Although environmental conditions are currently only marginally
conducive for additional development, this system could become a
tropical depression or tropical storm at any time during the next
few days while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph across
the northern Leeward Islands, near or over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola,
and the Bahamas. Strong winds, heavy rains, and possible flash
floods and mudslides are expected to occur over portions of the
Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern and
central Bahamas. Please consult products issued by your local
meteorological offices for further details. Interests in the
northwestern Bahamas and Florida should also monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 241532
AF308 O2EEA INVEST HDOB 12 20160824
152300 1752N 06242W 9881 00228 0142 +237 +156 153026 027 030 000 00
152330 1751N 06243W 9884 00227 0143 +236 +153 158028 029 032 000 00
152400 1750N 06244W 9880 00229 0143 +232 +154 158025 029 032 000 03
152430 1749N 06245W 9886 00223 0143 +226 +159 161023 025 031 000 00
152500 1748N 06247W 9880 00229 0143 +222 +161 161025 027 033 000 00
152530 1747N 06248W 9887 00223 0143 +226 +158 160029 030 034 000 03
152600 1747N 06249W 9868 00239 0141 +225 +154 157030 031 035 000 03
152630 1748N 06251W 9884 00223 0140 +230 +152 160034 035 037 000 00
152700 1748N 06253W 9882 00223 0140 +224 +149 159033 037 037 000 00
152730 1749N 06254W 9882 00224 0142 +210 +161 157035 036 039 001 00
152800 1749N 06256W 9884 00225 0142 +211 +163 158032 036 040 001 00
152830 1750N 06258W 9885 00223 0143 +194 +168 158031 033 040 004 00
152900 1750N 06300W 9880 00227 0142 +189 +174 160025 031 045 011 00
152930 1751N 06301W 9885 00223 0143 +185 +176 166029 031 042 007 00
153000 1751N 06303W 9885 00223 0144 +185 +178 172034 035 043 005 00
153030 1752N 06304W 9915 00196 0144 +185 +182 170036 038 042 009 00
153100 1752N 06306W 9919 00190 0142 +185 +184 170034 036 045 014 03
153130 1753N 06308W 9912 00197 0141 +187 +187 171036 039 043 005 00
153200 1753N 06309W 9919 00189 0139 +193 +186 168037 040 044 002 03
153230 1754N 06311W 9920 00189 0138 +198 +183 168044 046 044 001 00
$$