ATL: HERMINE - Models

[CrazyC83]

When is the first G-IV Gonzo mission? That will help a lot.

[Alyono]

12Z NAM ts the strongest yet. It has also made a significant east shift. I suspect this is an error as it forms a depression by Galveston as well. However, perhaps it means the GFS will finally fully develop this

[Blown Away]

Seems we have a LLC now and it will gain enough latitude to avoid direct impact with PR/Hispaniola/E Cuba, so the models can focus on the upper air environment from here to SFL... We should get a better intensity idea going forward...

[SouthFLTropics]

12Z NAM ts the strongest yet. It has also made a significant east shift. I suspect this is an error as it forms a depression by Galveston as well. However, perhaps it means the GFS will finally fully develop this

The NAM solution is not good for peninsular Florida. The farther east and north this is before it makes the turn west the more time it has over open water before striking FLA. If the GFS and Euro follow suit I will be more concerned. For now, it's the SPAM, I mean NAM.

SFT

[TheProfessor]

12Z NAM ts the strongest yet. It has also made a significant east shift. I suspect this is an error as it forms a depression by Galveston as well. However, perhaps it means the GFS will finally fully develop this

The Storm seems to start a westward bend at the end of the 12z Nam, you can see the high expand southward in the last 2 frames.

81 hours


84 hours

[TheStormExpert]

Final frame(84hrs.) of the 12z NAM for reference.

[SouthFLTropics]

I don't know if anyone has pointed this out and I know it isn't one of the best performing models but the 06z GFDL seems to have come on board with development in the Bahamas. I'd post an image but to be honest I'm having some difficulty figuring out how to do it.

[Bocadude85]

I don't know if anyone has pointed this out and I know it isn't one of the best performing models but the 06z GFDL seems to have come on board with development in the Bahamas. I'd post an image but to be honest I'm having some difficulty figuring out how to do it.

Yes I see the 6zGFDL has come on board. Check out the simulated IR4 satellite of the 6Z HWRF at 126 hours... shows a eye starting to pop out on approach to S.Fla

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=99L&pkg=goes4&runtime=2016082406&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=265

[tolakram]

GFDL still fairly weak

[Alyono]

06 GFDL... TS Heads North E of SFL at end of run, may recurve...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0

No. Not a recurve. That run hits the west boundary. The inner domain crashed as the vortex dissipated during the run for a brief period of time

[tolakram]

GFS 12Z init

[tolakram]

I am away for an hour or so if someone else want's to post parts of the 12Z run.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS... 36 Hours... Moving WNW, still weak...

[KWT]

Still looks like it briefly flares up Fiona's remains looking at the IR imagery from the 12z GFS.

99L pretty much evaporates away on the vort charts between 24-48hrs. Be interesting to see what it does later in the run.

[Kazmit]

Models are somewhat in agreement, track-wise. Some show 99L going over the Florida Straits. While it could spare Florida from a direct hit, it will allow more strengthening, especially over the Loop Current.

[Alyono]

I fail to understand the dynamics of the useless MU

The vorticity is weaker at 12Z than in the past few runs.

Overall environment looks different. It also takes Gaston well SW of the last run. MU has a very poor handle on the environment

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS hour 78:

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS hour 96:

[KWT]

GFS still doing nothing with 99L, obviously can't rule that out but it does seem really at odds with other models.

Also it is interesting just how much further west Gaston is getting on this run.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS still doing nothing with 99L, obviously can't rule that out but it does seem really at odds with other models.

Also it is interesting just how much further west Gaston is getting on this run.

GFS still has Fiona reforming, and causing feedback issues.