ATL: HERMINE - Models

[PTrackerLA]

On Hi-res the 850mb vort still looks decent out to 48hrs, not too terribly different than the 00z with similar placement as well.

[Blown Away]

48 hours, weaker and faster on the 12Z ECMWF, shift west so far. Might be caving to the GFS?

Wasn't the GFS further and slower north?

GFS much slower, weaker, and E of Florida...

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Has the ECMWF stalled at 48 hours, or does it always take this long to generate?

[chaser1]

On Hi-res the 850mb vort still looks decent out to 48hrs, not too terribly different than the 00z with similar placement as well.

Really? Looking at the 850 vorticity I had thought that the motion seemed a bit further south (more WNW) than recent EURO runs.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

On Hi-res the 850mb vort still looks decent out to 48hrs, not too terribly different than the 00z with similar placement as well.

Yeah there isnt too much of a difference yet. From the 00z, high looks a tad stronger.

[ronjon]

Has the ECMWF stalled at 48 hours, or does it always take this long to generate?

As master Po sez..patience grasshopper..the full run usually takes an hour or so

[PTrackerLA]

On Hi-res the 850mb vort still looks decent out to 48hrs, not too terribly different than the 00z with similar placement as well.

Really? Looking at the 850 vorticity I had thought that the motion seemed a bit further south (more WNW) than recent EURO runs.

You're correct it's further SW this run. Big increase in vorticity at 66hr on hi-res I think this is still going to take off.

[SouthFLTropics]

One thing for people to note...When comparing run to run on the Euro using the Tropicaltidbits site you have to remember that if you use the arrows at the bottom of the map you are comparing yesterday's 12z with today's 12z, not today's 00z with today's 12z. I made this mistake the other day and someone pointed it out to me.

[Blown Away]

12z Euro... 72 Hours... Moving WNW... SW of 00z

[OntarioEggplant]

Didn't the mods ask to limit discussion in this thread? Do we need a separate model discussion thread or should we take it over to the actual discussion thread?

[chaser1]

On Hi-res the 850mb vort still looks decent out to 48hrs, not too terribly different than the 00z with similar placement as well.

Really? Looking at the 850 vorticity I had thought that the motion seemed a bit further south (more WNW) than recent EURO runs.

I just looked back at last nights 0Z run and although the track was a bit further east, it really ended up as "splitting hairs" and ends up in practically the same place off Andros Island in 96 hours from last night (72 hours from the 12 run). Either way, whats important to note here is that this is the point where the EURO had really begun deepening the system as it previously took a pretty hard left hand turn roughly toward Miami.

[Hammy]

Miami again, but barely at TS intensity this time. Any bets on the next run? I'm guessing skirting Cuba and hitting northern Mexico as the high seems to be stronger and stronger each run.

[Blown Away]

12z Euro... 96 Hours... Homestead/Upper Keys... Appears W turn beginning...

[SouthFLTropics]

12z Euro... 96 Hours... Homestead/Upper Keys... Appears W turn beginning...

Compare with yesterday's 12z...not too far off.

[centuryv58]

12z Euro... 96 Hours... Homestead/Upper Keys... Appears W turn beginning...

GFS north, Euro south?

[chaser1]

Yep, perhaps S. Florida will have dodged a bullet? Euro is certainly weaker at the point where 99L is just offshore Miami and about to make landfall. I doubt though, that this will change the overall threat scenario that potentially could occur along the N. Gulf Coast

[Blown Away]

12z Euro... 120 Hours... Moving Westward Into EGOM... Bombing Out...

[andrewp23]

If it does make it into the gulf as a weaker depression, would it linger more west to LA/TX? If i remember correctly a stronger storm would pull n/ne toward the poles.

[PTrackerLA]

And here we are 120hrs, it's about to get ugly folks on this run. This will make 5 runs in a row of the Euro with a strong hurricane in the Gulf.

[Ivanhater]

This isn't going to end well for someone