ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[fci]

Hype all ready starting in central Florida. Wesh 2 said that if it passes north of Hispaniola it had s strong change of turning into a ts or a hurricane. It hits Miami on Monday at 8 and hits Orlando on Tuesday. He said it's time to check your hurricane kit.

And that "hype" is a good thing.
People should know there is a "possible" tropical system looming for the weekend.

[jlauderdal]

Bernie put a good video together summarizing where we are at..you can see why it "should" go north of the shredder..make sure you watch levis and deltadog videos too..especially good for the newbies to understand the hows and whys, watch of few of these and its like reading 100 pages of posts without the brain damage

AccuRayno6 mins
I recorded this around. My thoughts.Thursday is key as system approached Hispaniola. http://bit.ly/2bOwKri https://t.co/FijHt9EMuF

[SFLcane]

I think they will be plenty of opportunity for intensification prior to landfall in Florida.

[alienstorm]

I expect to see the development around 20.5n 67.0w if it develops. At this point it is a total mess.

[psyclone]

Does anyone here feel that this will not make a storm?

The current NHC forecast gives that a 1 in 5 shot the next 5 days so that's definitely possible. OTOH that's a 4 out of 5 chance it will develop. Moving in closer they only give it a 3 out of 5 over the next 48 hours. It's worth keeping their current thinking in mind. Even they say there's a very respectable 40% chance of no development during the next 48. Keep their thinking in mind as you wade through the endless "flavor of hour" posts. a steady hand and an even temperament pays well over the long haul.

[Bocadude85]

Bernie put a good video together summarizing where we are at..you can see why it "should" go north of the shredder..make sure you watch levis and deltadog videos too..especially good for the newbies to understand the hows and whys, watch of few of these and its like reading 100 pages of posts without the brain damage

AccuRayno6 mins
I recorded this around. My thoughts.Thursday is key as system approached Hispaniola. http://bit.ly/2bOwKri https://t.co/FijHt9EMuF

Great video.

[wxman57]

Somewhere between the upper Texas coast and Bermuda still looks most likely. I suspect that the overnight runs will come up with a completely different solution, possibly farther west again.

57 thus far just as you stated no development till it nears the Bahamas. Question? By then how do u prepare?

If you wait until it's named then you have no time to prepare. It's there now and forecast to develop and impact south Florida. You should already be preparing.

[BobHarlem]

Yeah it's wild that Ex-Fiona looks better on the wide sat view than 99L right now. I wonder if the HWRF was onto something earlier. (Pure speculation, not ensuing anything. Tropical Drama)

[fci]

Local Met here in Palm Beach County talking now of possibility that Ridge is not as strong as originally anticipated and 99L turning north before Florida. Also about possible shredder of Hispañola.

[AutoPenalti]

Local Met here in Palm Beach County talking now of possibility that Ridge is not as strong as originally anticipated and 99L turning north before Florida. Also about possible shredder of Hispañola.

Well, that ridge is still pretty strong, and the LLC passed north of PR. So idk.

[La Breeze]

Local Met here in Palm Beach County talking now of possibility that Ridge is not as strong as originally anticipated and 99L turning north before Florida. Also about possible shredder of Hispañola.

This would be wonderful news for Florida and all of us in the Gulf coastal states. Please keep us informed with what your local met is saying down in PB County. Thanks from Louisiana.

[Bocadude85]

Somewhere between the upper Texas coast and Bermuda still looks most likely. I suspect that the overnight runs will come up with a completely different solution, possibly farther west again.

57 thus far just as you stated no development till it nears the Bahamas. Question? By then how do u prepare?

If you wait until it's named then you have no time to prepare. It's there now and forecast to develop and impact south Florida. You should already be preparing.

But what should we be preparing for? A tropical wave,Depression,Tropical Storm or hurricane?

[centuryv58]

Local Met here in Palm Beach County talking now of possibility that Ridge is not as strong as originally anticipated and 99L turning north before Florida. Also about possible shredder of Hispañola.

As a local neighbor, I would take the local weather personalities with a BIG grain of salt. Have been watching them for some years now, and would not trust them for much info on this storm.

[Weatherboy1]

57 thus far just as you stated no development till it nears the Bahamas. Question? By then how do u prepare?

If you wait until it's named then you have no time to prepare. It's there now and forecast to develop and impact south Florida. You should already be preparing.

But what should we be preparing for? A tropical wave,Depression,Tropical Storm or hurricane?

This is the incredibly thorny problem with this system. Literally could be anything from thunderstorms through a Cat 1/2 hurricane. That makes for a wide range of scenarios for the NHC, media, and everyday Floridians. Personally, I think this is a different situation from previous ones that turned out to be busts (Debby in 2000, Erika in 2015, etc.) for Florida and am watching it more carefully. My best advice would be to do a few preliminary things and then sleep on it tonight. If 99 gets its act together overnight or through the day tomorrow, then it has a better chance of getting stronger. If it takes until Friday or even Saturday, then less time to intensify.

[Aric Dunn]

saw somewhere noaa plane is going out at 0200L later ?

[OuterBanker]

I feel so much better now. Bernie said that it won't be a Carolinas problem.

[Sanibel]

In recent years systems with as bad organization as this one have failed to hit Florida with any intensity.



Disclaimer: I am not a pro meteorologist. Anyone seeking information on this system should refer to professional/official weather sources.

[jlauderdal]

I feel so much better now. Bernie said that it won't be a Carolinas problem.

makes sense based on the forcast of the high..that could change of course..you might get the system once its ejected out..slow moving huge rain producer

[gatorcane]

In recent years systems with as bad organization as this one have failed to hit Florida with any intensity.



Disclaimer: I am not a pro meteorologist. Anyone seeking information on this system should refer to professional/official weather sources.

Yes very true and that is why we only hope the same thing happens here. A lot of folks are just not going to take it seriously unless they actually see something concrete with an actual center to track - and right now it is a mess - it may be a case of a quickly organizing system like Earl did before it moved into Belize catching folks off guard (like in Belize)

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[fci]

Local Met here in Palm Beach County talking now of possibility that Ridge is not as strong as originally anticipated and 99L turning north before Florida. Also about possible shredder of Hispañola.

As a local neighbor, I would take the local weather personalities with a BIG grain of salt. Have been watching them for some years now, and would not trust them for much info on this storm.

There is one station here that really takes it seriously and doesn't have a staff of "readers". They are meteorologists and do analysis rather than just read.
We'll see but as a long time Tropical enthusiast there are few local mets that I have given any credence to but this station is good.