ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[stormlover2013]

from the khou forum from a pro

updated Weather Prediction Center Day 3 to 7 surface charts suggests the surface reflection of potential Hermine will be South of Louisiana next week. I see no reason to dismiss a potential Gulf of Mexico scenario regardless of the daily shifts of the operational guidance. The SE Ridge has been very strong all late Spring into Summer. I see no significant changes via the ensembles that the persistent SE United States/Bermuda Ridge will quickly disappear.

Once we get additional synoptic data from the Global Hawk ingested into the Global computer guidance and actual Tropical Cyclone Genesis occurs, expect swings in the computer models.

[jlauderdal]

Local Met here in Palm Beach County talking now of possibility that Ridge is not as strong as originally anticipated and 99L turning north before Florida. Also about possible shredder of Hispañola.

its possible..so is RI when it gets in the Bahamas...what the met is saying isnt crazy talk but the met can talk about numerous other scenarios..its a watch and wait situation

[WeatherEmperor]

I think for now I would just check the basics.

Check to see how many batteries you have and purchase a few if you are short.
Check your flashlights to make sure they are functional
Buy a 24-pack of bottled water ( no need to purchase multiple packs. 1 is enough for now)
Check toilet paper levels and make sure you have some canned food
Check your hurricane shutters and make sure they are functional

When 99L becomes an official tropical cyclone and the forecast path shows it coming our way, then I would do the finishing touches on preparations.

[AutoPenalti]

Earl intensified with little room to spare, 99L has so much room to organize quickly. It's a matter of waiting.

[OuterBanker]

from the khou forum from a pro

updated Weather Prediction Center Day 3 to 7 surface charts suggests the surface reflection of potential Hermine will be South of Louisiana next week. I see no reason to dismiss a potential Gulf of Mexico scenario regardless of the daily shifts of the operational guidance. The SE Ridge has been very strong all late Spring into Summer. I see no significant changes via the ensembles that the persistent SE United States/Bermuda Ridge will quickly disappear.

Once we get additional synoptic data from the Global Hawk ingested into the Global computer guidance and actual Tropical Cyclone Genesis occurs, expect swings in the computer models.

I didn't see a global hawk mission for 99l on the POD.

Just a 24 hr on Gaston. Will NHC not run a Gulf IV until it's developed?

[chaser1]

Aric, that LLC NE of Puerto Rico appears to be gaining latitude pretty quickly, seems already more north than the models have been showing thought it could slow down as you mention and maybe wobble back to the west to correct. Maybe it just dies off and another LLC forms later once convection builds again?

I can't speak for Aric but i'd be curious as well to hear his take on that LLC feature shooting off to the N.W. It makes for some interesting academic debate though. One one hand we have that feature that some anticipated would be the dominant mean COC once co-aligned with the MLC. Heck, looking the way this did late last night it would've been hard to think otherwise. I'm wondering though if what many of us thought was a true LLC coming into the islands around 15N & 59W, might have simply continued to move toward the N.W. toward the Mona passage and now lies over extreme E. Hispanola? At that point I had thought that one reason some models were having difficulty (especially the GFS) showing an intensifying system and aligning with the EURO solution was because of a possible discrepency with where the GFS was progging the vorticity to track over in the first place. I mean it really doesnt matter if you're a person or a computer but if there's that much variability regarding whether the conditions for a COC might permit development either north of the Virgin Islands vs. possibly 150 or more miles further west and over land, well than its simply because the science just isnt there. I was in the camp thinking that 99L was actually further south than models were initializing it to be, thus thinking that near term development could be impacted by a track partially over land. Well, looking at the satellite this afternoon I'm not so sure that isnt the case. With the recent firing of convection over E. Hispanola and the appearance of some level of broad turning there, who's to say that this might not end up being the more dominant center. Honestly though, I just think that the evolution of this system's genesis is and has been tricky to forecast simply given a larger set of seen and unseen variables. Seems as if the LLC has slowed its motion to the NNW and perhaps the whole thing will simply merge/reform at some point. It is fascinating to watch though, because it really is anyone's guess what feature will prove to become the dominant center. When it finally does though, THEN we'll finally have a clue what risks lie ahead and for who.

[La Sirena]

Earl intensified with little room to spare, 99L has so much room to organize quickly. It's a matter of waiting.

I agree with this but I do think the intensification will be pretty fast and furious when it hits the super warm waters around Bermuda. All bets are off after that....lol. The water has been so ridiculously hot in the Keys this summer. At least I got kicked into gear to finish my preps!

[gatorcane]

One thing that's for sure. That is one strong vorticity north of Puerto Rico and based on CIMSS 850mb vort maps, seems to be getting stronger with time.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/768551625988374529

[Nimbus]

Once this gets north of the Mona passage the land interaction with Puerto Rico will be diminished.
The outflow is currently being heavily sheared but its expanding outward and northward a little more this afternoon which may indicate some ridging building back in.
Historically we've seen a lot of these systems jump NW over Puerto Rico then regroup once they get a shot of that warm moist air coming through the Mona passage.

[OuterBanker]

To this novice there seems to still be two vortices. The one that was sheared around 19.75 n 65.5 wand one around 18.75 and 69 w (Hisp). The one on Hisp seems to be the only one wit mid level convection. The one north of PR seem to be the stoongest llc.
Teacher may I be excused my brain is full.

[johngaltfla]

I think for now I would just check the basics.

Check to see how many batteries you have and purchase a few if you are short.
Check your flashlights to make sure they are functional
Buy a 24-pack of bottled water ( no need to purchase multiple packs. 1 is enough for now)
Check toilet paper levels and make sure you have some canned food
Check your hurricane shutters and make sure they are functional

When 99L becomes an official tropical cyclone and the forecast path shows it coming our way, then I would do the finishing touches on preparations.

WE, please don't take this personally; but it is AUGUST!

Everyone in hurricane prone areas should have the basics in June plus insurance and plans long before then.

Folks, I've been through 16 or 17 of these storms (1 was a hybrid) and bugged out for 1 (Charley). You have to be prepared early, not at the last minute. While 99L might not develop, we are heading into the peak of the season and thanks to the patterns apparently changing with cold fronts moving further south earlier, October and November could be busy months for those of us in the Southeast. Have the basics, have a plan, and come to S2K for the information you need. What I saw on TWC was HORRID with the "Eye on the Tropics Suspense in the Southeast" graphic in the upper right hand corner (it's still on now). Just stay calm, listen to your local mets if they are good like we have in the Tampa area, and read what the pros post here.

IMHO, 99L is to end up bedeviling everyone for the next 48 hours until it clears Hispaniola and tightens up.

[Blinhart]

Earl intensified with little room to spare, 99L has so much room to organize quickly. It's a matter of waiting.

I agree with this but I do think the intensification will be pretty fast and furious when it hits the super warm waters around Bermuda. All bets are off after that....lol. The water has been so ridiculously hot in the Keys this summer. At least I got kicked into gear to finish my preps!

Don't you mean the Bahamas not Bermuda?

[La Sirena]

Earl intensified with little room to spare, 99L has so much room to organize quickly. It's a matter of waiting.

I agree with this but I do think the intensification will be pretty fast and furious when it hits the super warm waters around Bermuda. All bets are off after that....lol. The water has been so ridiculously hot in the Keys this summer. At least I got kicked into gear to finish my preps!

Don't you mean the Bahamas not Bermuda?

Yes! Lol! That's what I get for trying to post and cook dinner at the same time.

[Nimbus]

I think for now I would just check the basics.

Check to see how many batteries you have and purchase a few if you are short.
Check your flashlights to make sure they are functional
Buy a 24-pack of bottled water ( no need to purchase multiple packs. 1 is enough for now)
Check toilet paper levels and make sure you have some canned food
Check your hurricane shutters and make sure they are functional

When 99L becomes an official tropical cyclone and the forecast path shows it coming our way, then I would do the finishing touches on preparations.

WE, please don't take this personally; but it is AUGUST!

Everyone in hurricane prone areas should have the basics in June plus insurance and plans long before then.

Folks, I've been through 16 or 17 of these storms (1 was a hybrid) and bugged out for 1 (Charley). You have to be prepared early, not at the last minute. While 99L might not develop, we are heading into the peak of the season and thanks to the patterns apparently changing with cold fronts moving further south earlier, October and November could be busy months for those of us in the Southeast. Have the basics, have a plan, and come to S2K for the information you need. What I saw on TWC was HORRID with the "Eye on the Tropics Suspense in the Southeast" graphic in the upper right hand corner (it's still on now). Just stay calm, listen to your local mets if they are good like we have in the Tampa area, and read what the pros post here.

IMHO, 99L is to end up bedeviling everyone for the next 48 hours until it clears Hispaniola and tightens up.

Oh crap I'm busted, just got back from Kmart after buying their last two 25 ft generator cables.
I've been meaning to do that the last three seasons..

[chaser1]

As we look at the last of today's visible pics, I've gotta tell you that I dont remember actually having to focus on so many moving parts from any other disturbance, just trying to figure out where a point of COC might end up LOL. Heck, we might be witnessing the first ever tropical cyclone to form over Hispanola Or at least, it certainly looks like it's trying. I honestly never thought I'd hear myself say this but there's just too damn much vorticity all over the place!

[TheStormExpert]

I'm starting to really think this won't amount to much more than what it currently is, if that. Favorable UL conditions in the Bahamas is still up in the air and seeming less likely as time goes on, intensity guidance is just a darn mess to even look at it gives one headaches, and we are now within 5 days of this mess being a threat of some sorts to S. FL and yet the steering pattern is not set in stone even just beyond 72hrs.

On the other side of the basin you have a borderline strong TS refusing to attain hurricane status due to increasing shear, what is going on Atlantic!?

[northjaxpro]

57 thus far just as you stated no development till it nears the Bahamas. Question? By then how do u prepare?

If you wait until it's named then you have no time to prepare. It's there now and forecast to develop and impact south Florida. You should already be preparing.

But what should we be preparing for? A tropical wave,Depression,Tropical Storm or hurricane?

It is always best to prepare for the worst case scenario in situations like this.

[Bocadude85]

I'm starting to really think this won't amount to much more than what it currently is, if that. Favorable UL conditions in the Bahamas is still up in the air and seeming less likely as time goes on, intensity guidance is just a darn mess to even look at it gives one headaches, and we are now within 5 days of this mess being a threat of some sorts to S. FL and yet the steering pattern is not set in stone even just beyond 72hrs.

On the other side of the basin you have a borderline strong TS refusing to attain hurricane status due to increasing shear, what is going on Atlantic!?

I'm starting to feel the same way, obviously the GFS is seeing what the other models aren't, the Euro has SFla landfall in 4 days and we don't even know if that will happen

[TheStormExpert]

I'm starting to really think this won't amount to much more than what it currently is, if that. Favorable UL conditions in the Bahamas is still up in the air and seeming less likely as time goes on, intensity guidance is just a darn mess to even look at it gives one headaches, and we are now within 5 days of this mess being a threat of some sorts to S. FL and yet the steering pattern is not set in stone even just beyond 72hrs.

On the other side of the basin you have a borderline strong TS refusing to attain hurricane status due to increasing shear, what is going on Atlantic!?

I'm starting to feel the same way, obviously the GFS is seeing what the other models aren't, the Euro has SFla landfall in 4 days and we don't even know if that will happen

99L looks like mashed potatoes!

Anyways, I'm starting to think the GFS was onto something not developing this.