ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[JaxGator]

There is convection that's trying to form near the LLC but it might take day or two depending on what happens tonight. The anti-cyclone is right near it. Could it reposition itself over the LLC or a new one might form overhead?

[Aric Dunn]

few more hours for HR to help dissipate the forward lobe of the wave axis that the LLC has been connected to. it should begin to slow and start moving more westerly to wnw as it finishes its rotation around that lobe( or upper part of the wave axis) convection should fire after that once the sw and south inflow can resume....

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like convection is starting to fire around the low North of PR

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Stormcenter]

You never say never on any tropical disturbance especially during peak season. I don't care how bad it "looks". What eventually became Katrina
in the Bahamas was a mess at one time. NOT say this will turn out that way. IMO

[psyclone]

I'm starting to really think this won't amount to much more than what it currently is, if that. Favorable UL conditions in the Bahamas is still up in the air and seeming less likely as time goes on, intensity guidance is just a darn mess to even look at it gives one headaches, and we are now within 5 days of this mess being a threat of some sorts to S. FL and yet the steering pattern is not set in stone even just beyond 72hrs.

On the other side of the basin you have a borderline strong TS refusing to attain hurricane status due to increasing shear, what is going on Atlantic!?

What's going on is the same thing that's been going on for a decade. not much. But..as has been consistently mentioned by the NHC the better chances are still down the road. So we have to wait. and then wait some more. Go back and look at the posts from around 2 am. People were going crazy. Now they're down in the dumps. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. I agree that eventual development, while not a certainty, is more likely that not.

[PTrackerLA]

I know I know development wasn't really expected for another 48 hours but this system is really a mess. I'm starting to buy in more to the GFS solutions after the 650 mile shift of the Euro in one run in the gulf. In fact, the Euro moved more to the GFS in the short term with a much weaker system, it's hard to throw out the GFS at this point. Time to take a little breather tonight and see what things look like tomorrow.

[poof121]

I know I know development wasn't really expected for another 48 hours but this system is really a mess. I'm starting to buy in more to the GFS solutions after the 650 mile shift of the Euro in one run in the gulf. In fact, the Euro moved more to the GFS in the short term with a much weaker system, it's hard to throw out the GFS at this point. Time to take a little breather tonight and see what things look like tomorrow.

18z GFS is going through the Florida Straits so far.

[JtSmarts]

I wish I was fly on the wall at the NHC right now. I want this LLC situation to work itself out (or just die) because I'm desperate for an advisory. Also, the 0Z HWRF from early this morning showed 99 getting hit by strong shear and having a naked swirl situation yet it rapidly organized in the final 30-40 hours before landfall on FL.

[Frank2]

Not much on the SJU long-range radar image:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... A&loop=yes

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS appears to form two upper level lows in the current run. One in the Atlantic and one over Florida. Both of which seem to impend shear on 99L inhibiting development. The ULL in the Atlantic retrogrades SW to affect it even more.

[JaxGator]

Looks like convection is starting to fire around the low North of PR

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

Yes, small scale convection for now but maybe D-Max will help.

[NotoSans]

The latest Euro run seems to have forecast the formation of a weak low in the GoM, which may have caused the eastward shift. Doesn't look like a feasible solution to me though and I would expect another westward shift in the 00Z run.

Also, it is not surprising that this is a mess at the moment. Model guidance has never tried to develop this at this time frame. It is expected to develop as it tracks near the Bahamas. Too soon to call for no development.

[fci]

Looks like convection is starting to fire around the low North of PR

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

Yes, small scale convection for now but maybe D-Max will help.

And then if it fires up overnight, people will say that it is a TS for sure and question "How could this not be upgraded" and "They'll surely upgrade at 11:00".
Typical when so many are watching every wobble, eddy, flare-up and decrease so intently.

[shortwave]

Which vorticity is being tracked? the one over Hispaniola or the naked swirl above Puerto Rico?

[Aric Dunn]

last hour or so it appears to have turned back more wnw.. expect that to then turn into a west motion.. convection should build soon.

[Gustywind]

Interresting weather report from our Pro Mets of Meteo France Guadeloupe. Latest news for St Marteen ( at Gustavia).
http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... s_nord.pdf

At Gustavia (St Marteen):
T°max: 28,5°C.
Rainfall in 24h: 15, 2 millimeters ( 4pm-4pm)
Gust max: 87 Km/h.

[SouthFLTropics]

I see at least 3 competing vorts...One landing on the DR right now, another south of PR, and then the so called main vort north of PR. As long as this competition continues Hermine won't be anywhere to be found.

[TheStormExpert]

Latest morphed composite still shows a circulation just northeast of Puerto Rico.

[Nederlander]

Looks like convection is starting to fire around the low North of PR

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

Yes, small scale convection for now but maybe D-Max will help.

And then if it fires up overnight, people will say that it is a TS for sure and question "How could this not be upgraded" and "They'll surely upgrade at 11:00".
Typical when so many are watching every wobble, eddy, flare-up and decrease so intently.

Bingo... On the wagon, off the wagon, then back on.. No models developed it this early... Yes it looked much better last night, but ran into some monster shear today which blew it's top off and exposed the llc. That should let up overnight and into tomorrow.. The next 48-72 hours will give more insight on development..

[northjaxpro]

The latest Euro run seems to have forecast the formation of a weak low in the GoM, which may have caused the eastward shift. Doesn't look like a feasible solution to me though and I would expect another westward shift in the 00Z run.

Also, it is not surprising that this is a mess at the moment. Model guidance has never tried to develop this at this time frame. It is expected to develop as it tracks near the Bahamas. Too soon to call for no development.

To add to this to this point, we still do not have an official closed off low level center of circulation. The models will
continue to be all over the place until they can lock into a center fix.