ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

What's happen today is actually what the models have been showing. Development was not expected till the Bahamas. My issue with this is IF it finds better conditions and ramps up it will just not give SFL time to make much preparations.

[Steve]

You never say never on any tropical disturbance especially during peak season. I don't care how bad it "looks". What eventually became Katrina
in the Bahamas was a mess at one time. NOT say this will turn out that way. IMO

No doubt. And it's pretty funny when the or disappointed comes out.

Nimbus,

I went ahead and hit the store this morning. All the cases of Ozarka I wanted. A few days supply of red bulls and Yuenglings Snacks and some dried beef. I just gotta grab some whiskey and cigs this weekend, and I'll be ready to hang tight for a few days if necessary. I really hate lines so I'd rather not need stuff than be in some uber crowded store throwing elbows with panicked people trying to get to those last cases of water.

[LSU2001]

Yep, I agree Steve. Sent the wife to the store this morning to pick up a couple extra cases of water and stock up on snacks and such. I'm not worried about real food got plenty of that stored up. I figure I will drink the water regardless of what this storm does. Gonna wait till tomorrow to decide if I want to top off my stored fuel supplies and fire up my gas generator. It's the backup to my whole house natural gas generator so just have to make sure it's ready to go. I hate crowds too.
Tim

[abajan]

You never say never on any tropical disturbance especially during peak season. I don't care how bad it "looks". What eventually became Katrina in the Bahamas was a mess at one time. NOT say this will turn out that way. IMO

FWIW Andrew was a mess before it got its act together too: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Andrew

[JaxGator]

Yes, small scale convection for now but maybe D-Max will help.

And then if it fires up overnight, people will say that it is a TS for sure and question "How could this not be upgraded" and "They'll surely upgrade at 11:00".
Typical when so many are watching every wobble, eddy, flare-up and decrease so intently.

Bingo... On the wagon, off the wagon, then back on.. No models developed it this early... Yes it looked much better last night, but ran into some monster shear today which blew it's top off and exposed the llc. That should let up overnight and into tomorrow.. The next 48-72 hours will give more insight on development..

It's a go for development for me and true, the models didn't. Just observing what's going on currently and not rushing to conclusions.

[La Sirena]

What's happen today is actually what the models have been showing. Development was not expected till the Bahamas. My issue with this is IF it finds better conditions and ramps up it will just not give SFL time to make much preparations.

This has been my worry all along! Been a hurricane drought here and most new transplants have never experienced a 'cane....I'm one of them lol. We bought our house here just 2 years ago. My newbie status hasn't kept us from prepping though! I can't imagine the pressure Miami-Dade all the way through Monroe County must be feeling ATM.

I'm an incredible amateur at this and that's why I'm here....to learn. So, many thanks to everyone! As they say-- Knowing is half the battle! GI Joe!

[Gustywind]

Interresting weather report from our Pro Mets of Meteo France Guadeloupe. Looks like Guadeloupe have been well showered and that's the good news Thanks to you 99L but you can move away right now
http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... eloupe.pdf

RAINFALL:

Since the beginning of this weather event, values between 100 et 160 mm have been reported on Deshaies and la Désirade. Similars values have been reported too between le Moule and Saint-François. Elsewhere in the island, rainfall values have reached 20 to 80 millimeters.
Gustywind.

[SeGaBob]

What's the deal with the storms over Hispaniola? Looks better than the main part to the southeast....

[Sanibel]

Vorticity does look tighter. We'll see what if any affect the upper has on it.

[Weatherboy1]

Personally, I think having that secondary vortex plow into Hispaniola likely increases the chance of 99 developing. I seriously doubt it will hold together given the terrain it'll encounter there. That should allow the LLC they is over water nearer to PR take over. But as always, we will see

[tolakram]

Evening loop, look quick as the sun is setting fast (well, earth moving same speed as always I suspect. )

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=20&lon=-64&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

[jeff]

I wish I was fly on the wall at the NHC right now. I want this LLC situation to work itself out (or just die) because I'm desperate for an advisory. Also, the 0Z HWRF from early this morning showed 99 getting hit by strong shear and having a naked swirl situation yet it rapidly organized in the final 30-40 hours before landfall on FL.

Not sure what an advisory would say that has not already been covered on here 100 times. If you are in FL and the US Gulf coast you should at least be checking on this system once per day and making sure your hurricane plans are ready to be enacted. Looking at it for hours on end is not going to make it develop or not develop and following every operational model run will drive you insane. Just look at the 500mb pattern and the ensembles and relax. If we had a season like 1886 today...peoples heads would be exploding.

[psyclone]

well if that swirl we've been watching is indeed a legit eventual center, it is well north of PR. Let's see if convection can blow up over it tonight. Certainly worth watching.

[Steve]

And then if it fires up overnight, people will say that it is a TS for sure and question "How could this not be upgraded" and "They'll surely upgrade at 11:00".
Typical when so many are watching every wobble, eddy, flare-up and decrease so intently.

Bingo... On the wagon, off the wagon, then back on.. No models developed it this early... Yes it looked much better last night, but ran into some monster shear today which blew it's top off and exposed the llc. That should let up overnight and into tomorrow.. The next 48-72 hours will give more insight on development..

It's a go for development for me and true, the models didn't. Just observing what's going on currently and not rushing to conclusions.

I think that's understood jax. If I read his response right, he was replying to your post but not referring to you as being someone who was doing that (others obviously do and wear their emotions on their sleeves).

2001,

Glad to hear you got some basics out the way. Nothing worse than fighting with panicked masses for scraps. I don't have a generator since i sold my house, but that's something I might have looked at. I have heard from some other people who have natural gas ones that they love them. I was at a house in Carriere a while back where your boy had a push button fuse/switch system built into his electrical system. It was outrageous and probably pumped as much as the house needed but I can't remember if it was natural gas or petroleum.

[psyclone]

What's the deal with the storms over Hispaniola? Looks better than the main part to the southeast....

No doubt daytime heating has aided in the development of vigorous convection over the Dominican Republic this afternoon. I would expect that to wane after dark.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Nhc gives this a one in five chance of falling apart...I expect that window to close in the next 18 hours. Tonight is the night it either falls apart or hangs on to warmer and deeper waters.

[AJC3]

Post from yesterday afternoon...

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=118166&p=2523444#p2523444

This is a graphical representation of what I think transpired the past 24 hours...



 https://twitter.com/WxmanTony/status/768567454221996032




Essentially, the elongated envelope associated with 99L consolidated some as the wave axis tilted forward even more. the northern lobe of vorticity associated with the wave was essentially slung westward into Hispanola, while the southern lobe rotated NW across the NE Bahamas and north of PR. Apologies if anyone has trouble understanding my crude MS-Paint renderings.

[Nimbus]

That is the most persistent tornado I've ever seen racing off across 20N.
Maybe it will get captured by its own broad circulation and be centered under the anticyclone?

[Aric Dunn]

Post from yesterday afternoon...

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=118166&p=2523444#p2523444

This is a graphical representation of what I think transpired the past 24 hours...

http://i.imgur.com/GG9ah3Y.png

 https://twitter.com/WxmanTony/status/768567454221996032




Essentially, the elongated envelope associated with 99L consolidated some as the wave axis tilted forward even more. the northern lobe of vorticity associated with the wave was essentially slung westward into Hispanola, while the southern lobe rotated NW across the NE Bahamas and north of PR. Apologies if anyone has trouble understanding my crude MS-Paint renderings.

good call yesterday. Ive mentioned this scenario a few times already today. soon all the energy from the lobe will dissipate over HR leaving the "llc" to gain back the southerly and sw inflow again. few more hours.

[Blown Away]

Good sign if LLC reforms over Hispaniola...