ATL: HERMINE - Models

[Bocadude85]

Not much time for preps...

Strengthening TS that's different from the 12Z which showed zilch

[SouthFLTropics]

18z HWRF looks to only have a minimal TS going into South Florida at hour 99...Prior to this it jumps all over the place.

[Siker]

HWRF track looks off to me, eroding the ridge with a random upper level low.

[WeatherEmperor]

Not much time for preps...

Strengthening TS that's different from the 12Z which showed zilch

Thats exactly whats wrong with this model. Its on and off over and over on development. Very little consistency

[ronjon]

18 z HWRF RUNS up the spine of Florida as a tropical storm.

[jlauderdal]

Not much time for preps...

Strengthening TS that's different from the 12Z which showed zilch

Thats exactly whats wrong with this model. Its on and off over and over on development. Very little consistency

Its been that way since its introduction..it has many wins because it shows so many solutions for a given storm its bound to be right at least once

[Bocadude85]

The HWRF must show very favorable conditions towards the end of its 18Z run as it has 99L strengthening over Florida. I have posted the 111 hour composite reflectivity below showing the pressure at 997.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=99L&pkg=ref&runtime=2016082418&fh=111&xpos=0&ypos=453

[clambite]

This system seems to have an affinity for land. At 216 hours is just off shore southern N. Carolina looking poised to ride NNE along the coastline. How warm are those SST's up there along the mid-Atlantic coast right now??

I was fishing 40 miles south Morehead City yesterday and could not get out of 85 degree water !

[TheStormExpert]

00z Model Guidance.





18z GEFS Ensembles.

[jason1912]

NAVGEM shifts east.

[SFLcane]

That is some clustering around SFL..

[JtSmarts]

NAVGEM shifts east.

18z

[jason1912]

NAVGEM always gets stuck on hr 144.. weird.

[pgoss11]

The NAVGEM has to be the outlier.

[centuryv58]

The NAVGEM has to be the outlier.

Can't recall if it uses any GFS data--if so might explain the strange run.

[SFLcane]

Another look at 00z models..

[gatorcane]

00Z NAM showing a VERY favorable upper-level wind pattern over the Bahamas at 84 hours. I think the NAM is too far to the east with 99l too, if it were right under that anti-cyclone as it could be, could be more intense than what it is showing.

[Aric Dunn]

the data from the plane tonight will help greatly tomorrow...

[Steve]

NAM doesn't look like its got a west hook at the end. Obviously it's less than ideal for anything coming out of the tropics, so it could be 100% wrong. It's pretty Far East. It shoots a 500mb low from just west of the SW coast of FL at 9 hours which shows up through the run crossing the gulf and hitting the SE TX coast at the end of the run at that point with a low at 850. Could be the result of some of that energy rotating around that high that gave y'all some of those storms in SFL today. Some spin up on radar simulation as it nears TX Coast. Showing a TD maybe?

[chaser1]

On your mark...... get set......

(I have a feeling that this is where the GFS begins to bring Hermine alive - at about 60-72 hr.s right around Eleuthra in the Bahamas)