ATL: HERMINE - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS 00z through 36 hours.

[Bocadude85]

On your mark...... get set......

(I have a feeling that this is where the GFS begins to bring Hermine alive - at about 60-72 hr.s right around Eleuthra in the Bahamas)

I have a feeling GFS won't be developing this once again.

[chaser1]

Waiting for the 60hr. GFS forecast to come in and..... "crickets" ?? (awful quiet in here lol)

[SouthFLTropics]

On your mark...... get set......

(I have a feeling that this is where the GFS begins to bring Hermine alive - at about 60-72 hr.s right around Eleuthra in the Bahamas)

I have a feeling GFS won't be developing this once again.

I think it will develop...but it's going to be slow and late.

[La Breeze]

NAM doesn't look like its got a west hook at the end. Obviously it's less than ideal for anything coming out of the tropics, so it could be 100% wrong. It's pretty Far East. It shoots a 500mb low from just west of the SW coast of FL at 9 hours which shows up through the run crossing the gulf and hitting the SE TX coast at the end of the run at that point with a low at 850. Could be the result of some of that energy rotating around that high that gave y'all some of those storms in SFL today. Some spin up on radar simulation as it nears TX Coast. Showing a TD maybe?

When you say SE TX coast - do you mean Port Arthur/Beaumont area or further down the coast, near Corpus?

[SouthFLTropics]

[chaser1]

On your mark...... get set......

(I have a feeling that this is where the GFS begins to bring Hermine alive - at about 60-72 hr.s right around Eleuthra in the Bahamas)

I have a feeling GFS won't be developing this once again.

You could well be right; so far at 60 hrs. it looks like a simply open wave with the vorticity around Andros Island and no signs of life so far

[Blinhart]

Is it trying to spin something in the GoM south of the Sabine River?

[MississippiWx]

Since Gaston could end up influencing 99L's track, this does relate to this topic. The GFS has trended a lot more east with Gaston in recent runs. This could help the ridge hold on longer.

[Alyono]

same issue as 18Z

MU is the ONLY model so far that insists on the upper low driving into the Gulf, creating a region of upper convergence. I highly doubt anything will come from this run due to the upper convergent flow

[MississippiWx]

GFS has a much stronger ridge over the Mid-Atlantic this run thanks to Gaston being much further east.

[chaser1]

same issue as 18Z

MU is the ONLY model so far that insists on the upper low driving into the Gulf, creating a region of upper convergence. I highly doubt anything will come from this run due to the upper convergent flow

Yet oddly the shear analysis for this time looks absolutly fine? I think the GFS's problem (and thus far it might have been correct) is that the primary energy might well be over Hispanola right now, and it might be this feature that the GFS is dragging along the north coast of the islands. Assuming that I"m right, we should hence see development in the GFS model quite soon but definately by 120hr. once clearly north of the W. tip of Cuba. Then again, i'm probably wrong but at least it sounded like a reasonable theory anyway

[Steve]

NAM doesn't look like its got a west hook at the end. Obviously it's less than ideal for anything coming out of the tropics, so it could be 100% wrong. It's pretty Far East. It shoots a 500mb low from just west of the SW coast of FL at 9 hours which shows up through the run crossing the gulf and hitting the SE TX coast at the end of the run at that point with a low at 850. Could be the result of some of that energy rotating around that high that gave y'all some of those storms in SFL today. Some spin up on radar simulation as it nears TX Coast. Showing a TD maybe?

When you say SE TX coast - do you mean Port Arthur/Beaumont area or further down the coast, near Corpus?

It has that around Galveston.

[stormhunter7]

Think GFS is going west through the keys?

[tolakram]

[MississippiWx]

If you go back and look at the run by run comparisons of the GFS, you can see the GFS speeding up the vort max pretty substantially compared to the slow crawl it had earlier. Still doesn't appear the GFS is buying in on development, however.

[tolakram]

Stuck on south Florida.

[chaser1]

Let me tell you, even though the 850 vorticity has yet to really appear increasing up to 102 hours it does appear to me to have slightly expanded. That, and while stepping back and looking the entire regional flow from the Gulf, W. Atlantic and most of the Caribbean... its a damn good thing that theres not a big 'ol upper anticylcone sitting over the top. This could have (might be) a really large system if it had the opportunity and the appearant slow motion thus far exhibited

[stormhunter7]

Gfs at 114 hr it went nw. Over Ponta gorda/ sw florida coast. Open wave or slight TS.

[chaser1]

If you go back and look at the run by run comparisons of the GFS, you can see the GFS speeding up the vort max pretty substantially compared to the slow crawl it had earlier. Still doesn't appear the GFS is buying in on development, however.

No, certainly not yet. Here we are at 120 hr. and it's practicallly stalled - yet not deepening??