ATL: HERMINE - Models

[tolakram]

Yep, over Florida this run.

[Wx_Warrior]

Several runs now. If gfs some how pans out, Rock will never, EVER, hear the end of the models war.

[tolakram]

[stormhunter7]

138 hrs now gfs overy gulf near or on top of tampa.. open wave or weak ts

[Bocadude85]

Stuck on south Florida.

[img]

Atleast the vort is stronger at landfall then it was at the 18Z..

[tolakram]

Very interesting how Gaston almost retraces it's steps, very similar to what is happening with Lionrock.

[chaser1]

138 hr.'s and nothing but a weak 1013mb low sitting on the Tampa coastline; possibly ruining a few lovers' picnics and perhaps that one odd beach wedding that always seems to get rained on anyway

[tolakram]

[Bocadude85]

How can the NAM have a intensifying TS on its 0Z run and the GFS have nothing?

[chaser1]

And there you have it boys and girls, a 1014mb landfall at 162 hours on Wed. Early release day for the kiddies - do have them have raincoats at the ready

[South Texas Storms]

I think the reason the models are shifting eastward with their tracks is that they are now developing some type of tropical disturbance off the TX coast. The 0z Canadian is showing this now as well.

[Alyono]

UKMET is stronger and has shifted well west. Now it is heading toward Pensacola

Somehow, it still has the second Gulf system in the Gulf as it has a hurricane hitting Florida. This may mean future west shifts take it toward Louisiana

[chaser1]

Well okay, it certainly was NOT a pure land interaction related "fail". Once again it'll be interesting to see if the EURO shifts westward, though I'd kind of expect that it would. More interestingly though is whether we'll suddenly see it back way off and more in line with the GFS. But if the EURO does not, and instead continue to show a significant hurricane event for the N. Gulf, then its probably not 99L that's on life support... but the GFS model itself.

[Aric Dunn]

just going to throw all the models out tonight wait for 12z tomorrow with the upper air data inputed.

[chaser1]

I think the reason the models are shifting eastward with their tracks is that they are now developing some type of tropical disturbance off the TX coast. The 0z Canadian is showing this now as well.

Which models are shifting east?

[South Texas Storms]

I think the reason the models are shifting eastward with their tracks is that they are now developing some type of tropical disturbance off the TX coast. The 0z Canadian is showing this now as well.

Which models are shifting east?

The 0z Canadian and 12z Euro did.

[bamajammer4eva]

00z Canadian just loves Florida goes from Miami to Tampa to Tallahassee to Jacksonville and then offshore Daytona Beach.

[Alyono]

I think the reason the models are shifting eastward with their tracks is that they are now developing some type of tropical disturbance off the TX coast. The 0z Canadian is showing this now as well.

Which models are shifting east?

The 0z Canadian and 12z Euro did.

Canadian is simply slower. It is on the same heading, however

[Bocadude85]

The 0Z Canadian has landfall in SFla at 84 hours as a strengthening system..stronger then the 12Z for sure.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=atl&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016082500&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=266

[South Texas Storms]

Which models are shifting east?

The 0z Canadian and 12z Euro did.

Canadian is simply slower. It is on the same heading, however

The Canadian never gets this into the Gulf this run. It rides up the west coast of Florida and then back down the east coast of the state.