ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blinhart]

The dominant system is north of PR. I think most of that convection near Hispaniola is mostly upslope caused.

OK, but it is just deceiving the way it looks.

[HurriGuy]

convection for the first time develpoing over the LLC.. that little bubble on the NW side of the main convective ball..

you beat me to it

[South Texas Storms]

The dominant system is north of PR. I think most of that convection near Hispaniola is mostly upslope caused.

Yep, I agree. And the convection over the DR is weakening right now as the convection north of PR is blossoming.

[SeGaBob]

When is the next recon? I haven't seen it mentioned anywhere.
Edit: never mind I found out.

[chaser1]

Are we sure that the vort over Hispaniola isn't actually the dominant feature? Following the 0Z HWRF it has a TS heading www then at hour 18 it focuses in on a low over Haiti then starts tracking that low at hour 27..

Focus on the satellite. Don't focus on the models. They are complete garbage right now. Remember that models
change randomly for different variables that come into play that WE don't see. Satellite imagery shows us what's going on right now. If convection wanes after DMAX then it's going to struggle to intensify.

To be honest, it was my focusing on the satellite and looking at the final daylight pics which personally led me to consider the feature over Hispanola to quite possibly be the dominant feature.

[chaser1]

If this bursting of convection continues over what was the LLC moving NNW earlier today, than here we go again with "what should probably shake out" as a finally consolidating COC (final last words haha)

[AutoPenalti]

That convection blow up is about to hit the mountains.

[chaser1]

Not only do I find the resolution on the NASA 1KM as being higher, but the pic also seems to update faster too. Here's the link for one of the different resolutions one could find there (either for still or loop) http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES0 ... RPAaNl.jpg

Here's the regular link to the main NASA Satellite site

[chaser1]

oops, left that out. http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[Aric Dunn]

Not only do I find the resolution on the NASA 1KM as being higher, but the pic also seems to update faster too. Here's the link for one of the different resolutions one could find there (either for still or loop) http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES0 ... RPAaNl.jpg

Here's the regular link to the main NASA Satellite site

for visible yeah. that and it can go into rapid scan. but RGB still is overall better.

[chaser1]

Not only do I find the resolution on the NASA 1KM as being higher, but the pic also seems to update faster too. Here's the link for one of the different resolutions one could find there (either for still or loop) http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES0 ... RPAaNl.jpg

Here's the regular link to the main NASA Satellite site

for visible yeah. that and it can go into rapid scan. but RGB still is overall better.

Well true. I tend to go back and forth for night time between the RGB and the Shortwave IR (sometimes the Shortwave can get over exposed too however)

[SeGaBob]

I bet the TWO will be the same old thing at 2am.

[psyclone]

I'm really going to be interested to see if they lower the chances.

[Aric Dunn]

I'm really going to be interested to see if they lower the chances.

probably the same..

[chaser1]

Taking a last look at the satellite this eve. and I just cant help but have my eyes drawn toward that mid level vorticity south of P.R. that just looks like it wants to lumber on to the west. If the mid level energy there were to not eventually slide north and over the appearant LLC north of the Mona Passage, than its really hard to say which feature the EURO will continue to latch onto. I'll say this though - if the mid level low has worked down to 850mb or lower, than its not unreasonable that this might continue to steer the LLC on a pretty fixed WNW trek along and just north of the islands. Conversly, if the EURO were to advertise the LLC a bit more poleward and strengthening while moving toward the Central Bahamas (as it was in numerous prior runs), well than that may very well play out. This would essentially be though, where the primary discrepency between the EURO and GFS with how each has been trying to handle the storm. Basically comes down to how much relevance that mid level low south of P.R. will continue to be (and which model most accuratly ignored or took that feature into consideration).

[SeGaBob]

Yeah it's the same.

[AtlanticWind]

TWO the same, waiting for the next recon I bet

[LoveWeather12]

I live in Fl. I'm wondering, when we will know for sure where it's going and what intensity it will be? I'm getting annoyed and getting to the point of stop preparing for it

[AutoPenalti]

I live in Fl. I'm wondering, when we will know for sure where it's going and what intensity it will be? I'm getting annoyed and getting to the point of stop preparing for it

That is a terrible way to think about it. You SHOULD always prepare even if it doesn't look like anything right now.

[fci]

I live in Fl. I'm wondering, when we will know for sure where it's going and what intensity it will be? I'm getting annoyed and getting to the point of stop preparing for it

By Friday or early Saturday.
Can't get annoyed since no one, except for Mother Nature; can be blamed and that's pretty fruitless.
If you don't put yourself in a position to "prepare" then the only one you are punishing is yourself.
Mother Nature really doesn't care.