ATL: HERMINE - Models

[MississippiWx]

I think the reason the models are shifting eastward with their tracks is that they are now developing some type of tropical disturbance off the TX coast. The 0z Canadian is showing this now as well.

Which models are shifting east?

The 0z Canadian and 12z Euro did.

Differences in placement of Gaston probably have more to do with it than anything in the Western Gulf. Also, 0z Canadian has a bogus tropical storm hitting North Carolina, right in the middle of a ridge.

[chaser1]

I think the reason the models are shifting eastward with their tracks is that they are now developing some type of tropical disturbance off the TX coast. The 0z Canadian is showing this now as well.

Which models are shifting east?

The 0z Canadian and 12z Euro did.

Yep, the EURO was more pronounced. I didnt think the CMC was as much so but you're right. Interestingly did you notice how the present run is bringing Gaston closer to Bermuda than the prior run though? Looks like as a result, the N.C. Outer Banks get the "consolation storm prize" with Gaston's circulation causing Fiona (back alive again lol) to back right on in to the coastline.

[Alyono]

just ignore the Canadian. The remnants of Fiona are downright comical. May be messing up the steering pattern

[bg1]

Differences in placement of Gaston probably have more to do with it than anything in the Western Gulf. Also, 0z Canadian has a bogus tropical storm hitting North Carolina, right in the middle of a ridge.

Is it ex-Fiona again?

Never mind, I see it is.

[chaser1]

just ignore the Canadian. The remnants of Fiona are downright comical. May be messing up the steering pattern

Almost sounds like the premise for a great joke... " so did you hear about the one where the GFS model walks into a bar with the Canadian CMC..."

[stormhunter7]

My feeling is the 00z EURO will shift west towards La. I would think deeper, but it probably go weaker. I dont see it going east of florida, unless its calculations take a better/stornger vortext up towards gaston?
Guess will see in a little while what euro does!

[chaser1]

My feeling is the 00z EURO will shift west towards La. I would think deeper, but it probably go weaker. I dont see it going east of florida, unless its calculations take a better/stornger vortext up towards gaston?
Guess will see in a little while what euro does!

I'm thinking the same as you. My guess is that the Euro might be weaker early on and track even more WNW perhaps just grazing the Keys, but without the right hand hook back toward Tampa. That solution given the strength of the ridge just seems unreasonable. I'd initially guess W. Fla. Panhandle but if the heights rise again as forecasted at some point, than it wouldnt surprise me to see the Euro take the storm from 100 miles south of Pensacola and possibly push it west toward Louisiana or even the Louisiana/Texas border.

[SeGaBob]

I'm waiting on the "magical trap door" to show up in the models soon...

[Blinhart]

I guess the 12Z should have all the information from the Drone flight that just found Gaston is a Hurricane, which should help with some of the information be ingested into the models.

[Bocadude85]

Something is off with the 0Z HWRF...loop the simulated IR...it dives this south over Haiti at hour 18..

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=99L&pkg=goes4&runtime=2016082500&fh=36&xpos=0&ypos=293

[Aric Dunn]

this is a p3 ? twiter from earlier ?


NOAAHurricaneHunters ‏@NOAA_HurrHunter 9h9 hours ago

#NOAA43 and the crew are preparing for a 0200L takeoff into #invest99. This will start a series of flights to improve the forecast models.


https://twitter.com/NOAA_HurrHunter/sta ... 5922725889

[Aric Dunn]

Something is off with the 0Z HWRF...loop the simulated IR...it dives this south over Haiti at hour 18..

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=99L&pkg=goes4&runtime=2016082500&fh=36&xpos=0&ypos=293

same as the previous runs.. looks like the circulation gets caught on the mountains of DR

[Bocadude85]

Something is off with the 0Z HWRF...loop the simulated IR...it dives this south over Haiti at hour 18..

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=99L&pkg=goes4&runtime=2016082500&fh=36&xpos=0&ypos=293

same as the previous runs.. looks like the circulation gets caught on the mountains of DR

I'm wondering once they start initialization west of the DR if the HWRF will start showing strengthening again?

[Alyono]

HWRF with a big west shift

We may have a westward trend in the models this evening

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF with a big west shift

We may have a westward trend in the models this evening

shift west yes.. but there is clearly an interaction with DR. the southern portion of the circ gets trapped then looks like a piece breaks off then re organizes.

[Bocadude85]

Can someone please post the 0Z UKMET

[Steve]

Can someone please post the 0Z UKMET

I don't have a good one but sfwmd shows the 00z track heading up towards Ft Walton Beach or so. Blue track with squares...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

[South Texas Storms]

Can someone please post the 0Z UKMET

Here you go:

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144

[ronyan]

0z ECMWF initialization:

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro 48hr, slightly weaker.