ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wzrgirl1]

Looks like recon found 35 mph winds. Can someone tell me if I saw that correctly and if so will that mean an upgrade to td status at 11:oo?

[SeGaBob]

Looks like recon found 35 mph winds. Can someone tell me if I saw that correctly and if so will that mean an upgrade to td status at 11:oo?

Likely not, still disorganized.

[TheStormExpert]

I'd personally say the hurricane threat to S. FL has basically diminished, wouldn't expect more than a weak/moderate TS at best that is if this mess of a system ever gets it's act together.

[AJC3]

Looks like recon found 35 mph winds. Can someone tell me if I saw that correctly and if so will that mean an upgrade to td status at 11:oo?

Per the recently updated TWO, it doesn't have a closed low level wind circulation, therefore it will not be upgraded.

Also, there is no minimum wind speed requirement for a tropical depression.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like recon found 35 mph winds. Can someone tell me if I saw that correctly and if so will that mean an upgrade to td status at 11:oo?

If anything winds have gone down 10kts from yesterday.

[northjaxpro]

Looks like recon found 35 mph winds. Can someone tell me if I saw that correctly and if so will that mean an upgrade to td status at 11:oo?

If Recon was able to close off the LLC, then it is possible they will upgrade it. But, until that happens, no upgrade.

[Nederlander]

Looks like recon found 35 mph winds. Can someone tell me if I saw that correctly and if so will that mean an upgrade to td status at 11:oo?

They have to be able to close off that low level circulation center first.. Wind speed irrelevant until TS status..

[WeatherEmperor]

I'd personally say the hurricane threat to S. FL has basically diminished, wouldn't expect more than a weak/moderate TS at best that is if this mess of a system ever gets it's act together.

I am starting to agree with this. Especially now with the forward motion being faster than the models depicted as Aric Dunn mentioned before. Still possible for a Hurricane...but I also think the chances of this happening have diminished. TS most likely.

[NDG]

URNT15 KNHC 251322
AF308 03EEA INVEST HDOB 13 20160825
131230 2104N 07045W 9703 00337 0083 +240 +141 141029 030 028 000 03
131300 2104N 07047W 9703 00337 0083 +236 +143 139027 029 027 000 00
131330 2104N 07049W 9703 00337 0083 +236 +144 135025 026 027 000 00
131400 2104N 07051W 9701 00338 0084 +234 +147 135023 025 030 000 00
131430 2104N 07052W 9700 00339 0083 +235 +150 131022 023 030 000 00
131500 2105N 07054W 9703 00338 0083 +240 +150 130023 024 024 000 03
131530 2105N 07056W 9701 00338 0082 +240 +150 127022 023 022 000 03
131600 2105N 07058W 9703 00338 0084 +238 +152 122019 021 022 000 00
131630 2105N 07100W 9695 00343 0084 +236 +152 116018 019 020 000 03
131700 2105N 07101W 9705 00334 0084 +238 +152 115016 017 016 000 00
131730 2106N 07103W 9703 00337 0084 +236 +152 108013 015 016 000 03
131800 2106N 07105W 9702 00339 0084 +239 +152 096012 013 014 000 03
131830 2106N 07107W 9697 00343 0085 +237 +151 088011 012 012 000 00
131900 2105N 07108W 9701 00339 0086 +235 +152 083011 011 015 000 03
131930 2104N 07110W 9708 00333 0086 +237 +151 080012 013 017 000 03
132000 2103N 07111W 9700 00343 0087 +238 +151 080013 014 015 000 00
132030 2102N 07113W 9695 00346 0086 +239 +150 082012 013 015 000 00
132100 2101N 07114W 9704 00338 0087 +240 +149 072010 011 015 000 00
132130 2101N 07116W 9699 00344 0087 +240 +147 063011 011 015 000 03
132200 2100N 07117W 9701 00342 0087 +240 +148 058011 011 015 000 03
$$

[NDG]

Recon finds pressure of 1008mb over the naked swirl.

[jlauderdal]

we could be seeing the start of something sustained...we have our swirl and the SE side is building up, if it can continue and wrap then its on its way albeit earlier than expected...shear an issue but it shows there is potential there in the face of less than ideal conditions..Hispaniola becomes less of an issue by the hour

http://prntscr.com/ca97f2

[jlauderdal]

I'd personally say the hurricane threat to S. FL has basically diminished, wouldn't expect more than a weak/moderate TS at best that is if this mess of a system ever gets it's act together.

I am starting to agree with this. Especially now with the forward motion being faster than the models depicted as Aric Dunn mentioned before. Still possible for a Hurricane...but I also think the chances of this happening have diminished. TS most likely.

im not sure why you think its any less a possibility now than say yesterday..what has changed?

[NDG]

[SouthFLTropics]

The circulation is clearly visible...near 21.0N and approaching 71.0W. For development I think it needs to gain some latitude because the inflow from the south is being hampered by the islands. Based on the current speed and heading, as well as the high sinking down overhead, I'm of the belief that this struggles until at least the Florida Straights where it will pass into the GOM. Right now I think the Hurricane threat to South Florida has gone down but it's still quite possible that the Keys could get hit with a moderate TS.

SFT

[JaxGator]

Out of curiosity, how does/can a anti-cyclone get displaced from the storm system it was over?

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/768799965787324416

[WeatherEmperor]

I'd personally say the hurricane threat to S. FL has basically diminished, wouldn't expect more than a weak/moderate TS at best that is if this mess of a system ever gets it's act together.

I am starting to agree with this. Especially now with the forward motion being faster than the models depicted as Aric Dunn mentioned before. Still possible for a Hurricane...but I also think the chances of this happening have diminished. TS most likely.

im not sure why you think its any less a possibility now than say yesterday..what has changed?

The forward speed perhaps. It looks like 99L is moving faster than modeled. Aric Dunn pointed this out a few posts below. Wouldn't this mean less time over the waters before affecting FL? Maybe I am wrong I am not sure.

[Frank2]

Yes, that's always better news because it would be past before it had a chance...

[Nederlander]

I'd personally say the hurricane threat to S. FL has basically diminished, wouldn't expect more than a weak/moderate TS at best that is if this mess of a system ever gets it's act together.

I am starting to agree with this. Especially now with the forward motion being faster than the models depicted as Aric Dunn mentioned before. Still possible for a Hurricane...but I also think the chances of this happening have diminished. TS most likely.

Lest we forget Humberto (2007)... 30mph low to a 90mph hurricane in less than 24 hours.. When conditions are ripe (and all signs point to that being the case in the Bahamas), these things can develop quickly. Not saying this will or wont happen, but I am never quick to write off a system heading for hot tub water and low shear.

[alienstorm]

I am thinking a TD at best for Florida, this is not going to develop anytime soon.