ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[BobHarlem]

Some convection starting to fire on the Southeast of the "center" which is nearly at the Turks and Caicos...

[NDG]

URNT15 KNHC 251332
AF308 03EEA INVEST HDOB 14 20160825
132230 2059N 07119W 9701 00343 0088 +240 +148 050011 012 015 000 00
132300 2058N 07120W 9701 00343 0088 +240 +149 049013 014 015 000 00
132330 2057N 07122W 9699 00345 0089 +238 +149 049013 014 014 000 00
132400 2056N 07123W 9705 00340 0089 +239 +149 045013 014 013 000 03
132430 2056N 07125W 9705 00340 0090 +238 +150 044014 014 014 000 00
132500 2055N 07126W 9699 00345 0090 +239 +148 043015 016 014 000 00
132530 2054N 07128W 9699 00344 0090 +237 +148 038016 016 017 000 00
132600 2053N 07130W 9701 00343 0090 +237 +150 040015 016 018 000 03
132630 2052N 07131W 9697 00346 0090 +240 +151 046014 015 012 000 03
132700 2050N 07131W 9705 00339 0089 +240 +150 047012 013 012 000 03
132730 2049N 07131W 9701 00343 0089 +240 +149 051013 013 012 000 00
132800 2047N 07131W 9702 00343 0089 +240 +149 053012 013 012 000 03
132830 2045N 07131W 9701 00343 0088 +240 +148 053013 013 012 000 00
132900 2044N 07132W 9701 00342 0088 +239 +149 052013 013 011 000 00
132930 2042N 07132W 9703 00342 0088 +240 +147 051012 013 010 000 00
133000 2041N 07132W 9700 00343 0087 +240 +146 052013 013 011 000 03
133030 2039N 07132W 9703 00339 0087 +240 +146 059011 012 011 000 00
133100 2037N 07132W 9700 00342 0086 +239 +146 053008 009 010 000 03
133130 2036N 07132W 9701 00340 0086 +240 +145 049008 009 011 000 03
133200 2034N 07132W 9703 00339 0086 +240 +144 051009 009 011 000 00
$$
;

[NDG]

According to the AF recon, the circulation is nothing but a swirl, nice wind shift but no westerly winds found so far.

[Aric Dunn]

thats odd. looking back at the recon path.. they were flying in the old decaying convection never even got close the the naked swirl... of course there would only be SE and south winds that far east of the circ. lol

[NDG]

[NDG]

I'm off to work, somebody else can take over if available

[tropicwatch]

According to the AF recon, the circulation is nothing but a swirl, nice wind shift but no westerly winds found so far.

Good point, you won't find them if you don't go there.

[Aric Dunn]

of course not saying they would have found anything with the naked swirl either but....

[WeatherEmperor]

I know the pro mets have told us not to focus on the exact center in the models for initialization...but I just cannot help but notice something. Right now, this naked swirl is right at the Turks and Caicos. If you look at the 00Z Euro from this morning, it has the center approaching the Turks and Caicos in 24 hours or Friday morning to be exact. So this means that 99L is a full 24 hours ahead of schedule if you believe the modeling. What implications could this have for Florida track and intensity wise?

[jlauderdal]

I am starting to agree with this. Especially now with the forward motion being faster than the models depicted as Aric Dunn mentioned before. Still possible for a Hurricane...but I also think the chances of this happening have diminished. TS most likely.

im not sure why you think its any less a possibility now than say yesterday..what has changed?

The forward speed perhaps. It looks like 99L is moving faster than modeled. Aric Dunn pointed this out a few posts below. Wouldn't this mean less time over the waters before affecting FL? Maybe I am wrong I am not sure.

aric is correct as usual but its present speed now doesn't really matter although you could argue that a faster movement today just means it gets to a more favorable environment faster with less chance of dissipation(this seems very unlikely)..its the forward in 24-48 hours and beyond that really matters when it gets to a better setup..that said the modeling seems to be trending south through the upper keys but that could just be noise...bottom line is Bahamas, sofla, keys, gulf can easily support intensification in terms of ssts and setup

[NDG]

thats odd. looking back at the recon path.. they were flying in the old decaying convection never even got close the the naked swirl... of course there would only be SE and south winds that far east of the circ. lol

They did get to the naked swirl which is near 71.3W, that's where they found the lowest pressure.

[Aric Dunn]

I know the pro mets have told us not to focus on the exact center in the models for initialization...but I just cannot help but notice something. Right now, this naked swirl is right at the Turks and Caicos. If you look at the 00Z Euro from this morning, it has the center approaching the Turks and Caicos in 24 hours or Friday morning to be exact. So this means that 99L is a full 24 hours ahead of schedule if you believe the modeling. What implications could this have for Florida track and intensity wise?

it means keep shifting the track west. this will likely now get into the gulf through the straights or extreme south florida before and recurve

[Aric Dunn]

thats odd. looking back at the recon path.. they were flying in the old decaying convection never even got close the the naked swirl... of course there would only be SE and south winds that far east of the circ. lol

They did get to the naked swirl which is near 71.3W

not the noaa plane. the af recon in it now looks like they went through it.

[NDG]

I spoke too soon they just found some light westerly winds to the SW of the swirl.

33930 2011N 07133W 9807 00251 0093 +231 +162 195004 005 015 000 00
134000 2009N 07133W 9806 00250 0092 +236 +163 243006 006 012 000 00
134030 2008N 07133W 9805 00254 0092 +235 +165 268006 007 011 000 00
134100 2006N 07133W 9752 00298 0090 +238 +159 224003 005 010 000 00

[SouthDadeFish]

I know the pro mets have told us not to focus on the exact center in the models for initialization...but I just cannot help but notice something. Right now, this naked swirl is right at the Turks and Caicos. If you look at the 00Z Euro from this morning, it has the center approaching the Turks and Caicos in 24 hours or Friday morning to be exact. So this means that 99L is a full 24 hours ahead of schedule if you believe the modeling. What implications could this have for Florida track and intensity wise?

First of all, this a probably a question for the model thread. Also, I think you are not interpreting the model correctly. The 24 hour forecast point is from the 00Z initialization, which would be for 00Z tonight. I don't think the Euro is that far off with it's forecast. Might be 6 hours too slow at the most, if that.

[BobHarlem]

It's a little bit faster than the Euro, which had it in the western part of the Turks and Caicos around 6PM EDT tonight. Right now naked swirl 99L is just southeast of the Turks/Caicos So maybe 3-4 hours ahead of the Euro at best?

[tropicwatch]

The AF plane did find some westerly wind just north of the DR close to the border of Haiti. About 10mins ago.

[WeatherEmperor]

I know the pro mets have told us not to focus on the exact center in the models for initialization...but I just cannot help but notice something. Right now, this naked swirl is right at the Turks and Caicos. If you look at the 00Z Euro from this morning, it has the center approaching the Turks and Caicos in 24 hours or Friday morning to be exact. So this means that 99L is a full 24 hours ahead of schedule if you believe the modeling. What implications could this have for Florida track and intensity wise?

it means keep shifting the track west. this will likely now get into the gulf through the straights or extreme south florida before and recurve

What intensity could we expect in South Florida? TD or TS?

[NDG]

URNT15 KNHC 251342
AF308 03EEA INVEST HDOB 15 20160825
133230 2033N 07132W 9701 00342 0086 +240 +145 033007 008 010 000 03
133300 2031N 07132W 9703 00340 0087 +240 +146 022006 007 011 000 03
133330 2029N 07132W 9701 00342 0087 +240 +148 025006 006 011 000 00
133400 2028N 07133W 9700 00342 0087 +238 +151 034006 007 011 000 00
133430 2026N 07133W 9701 00343 0087 +238 +152 023006 006 010 000 00
133500 2025N 07133W 9699 00342 0087 +240 +151 025006 006 009 000 03
133530 2023N 07133W 9703 00340 0087 +238 +151 031005 006 010 000 03
133600 2021N 07133W 9701 00342 0087 +235 +152 048005 005 009 000 00
133630 2020N 07133W 9701 00342 0087 +236 +152 048004 005 010 000 00
133700 2018N 07133W 9704 00340 0088 +236 +153 061003 004 011 000 00
133730 2017N 07133W 9703 00342 0090 +234 +154 211001 003 016 000 00
133800 2015N 07133W 9704 00342 0091 +231 +152 172005 007 016 000 00
133830 2014N 07133W 9703 00345 0093 +227 +151 170007 009 017 000 00
133900 2012N 07133W 9748 00307 0098 +221 +155 158006 008 017 000 00
133930 2011N 07133W 9807 00251 0093 +231 +162 195004 005 015 000 00
134000 2009N 07133W 9806 00250 0092 +236 +163 243006 006 012 000 00
134030 2008N 07133W 9805 00254 0092 +235 +165 268006 007 011 000 00
134100 2006N 07133W 9752 00298 0090 +238 +159 224003 005 010 000 00
134130 2004N 07133W 9707 00342 0093 +240 +153 167002 003 010 000 00
134200 2003N 07133W 9696 00353 0095 +240 +150 123001 002 011 000 03
$$

[Aric Dunn]

I spoke too soon they just found some light westerly winds to the SW of the swirl.

33930 2011N 07133W 9807 00251 0093 +231 +162 195004 005 015 000 00
134000 2009N 07133W 9806 00250 0092 +236 +163 243006 006 012 000 00
134030 2008N 07133W 9805 00254 0092 +235 +165 268006 007 011 000 00
134100 2006N 07133W 9752 00298 0090 +238 +159 224003 005 010 000 00

thats not with the center of the swirl its associated like yesterday with the boundary to the south ...