ATL: HERMINE - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7183
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:
Contact jlauderdal

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2901 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Aug 25, 2016 8:33 am

TheStormExpert wrote:12z Model Guidance.

Image

Image

06z GEFS Ensembles.

Image


so what happened with the idea of the gfs weaking that ridge...the ridge is stronger than ever in the latest runs...the euro has been consistent with the idea, the hwrf is now locking on...24 hours from now i bet we have consistency..remember, error rates at 5 days are in the hundreds of miles...for sofla we will be at 2-3 days out tomorrow and then it becomes an intensity forecast and that will be very difficult due to the potential
3 likes   
Top
User avatar
MississippiWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1699
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2902 Postby MississippiWx » Thu Aug 25, 2016 9:01 am

TheStormExpert wrote:12z Model Guidance.

Image

Image

06z GEFS Ensembles.

Image


Pretty large westward shift in the models here. Wouldn't doubt it if they came back east again. Windshield wiper effect until we can a better grip on the overall steering overhead.
1 likes   
This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
stormwise

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2903 Postby stormwise » Thu Aug 25, 2016 9:05 am

EC00z
https://i.imgsafe.org/efa1a0d719.png

https://i.imgsafe.org/efac0318b6.png
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5194
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2904 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Aug 25, 2016 9:31 am

So based on the model directional outcome, this could be a weak storm moving through Florida, or a potential major hurricane in the Gulf if it misses Florida. Definitely interesting days ahead
2 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20010
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2905 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 25, 2016 9:35 am

 https://twitter.com/ChrisLandsea/status/768817084608483328




 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/768819017695932416


2 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7183
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:
Contact jlauderdal

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2906 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Aug 25, 2016 9:41 am



its all about the ridge per their plan
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5277
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2907 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Aug 25, 2016 9:42 am

Great news, should get some good data for the model runs this evening! Does anyone know if the mission that started at 2am have sent any data to the models?
2 likes   
Top
RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2908 Postby RL3AO » Thu Aug 25, 2016 9:47 am

PTrackerLA wrote:Great news, should get some good data for the model runs this evening! Does anyone know if the mission that started at 2am have sent any data to the models?

I done believe the low level invest missions had data entered into the models.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145360
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2909 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 25, 2016 9:50 am

 https://twitter.com/MikeWDross/status/768820537246318592


2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2910 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:04 am

Fwiw, the 12z NAM has what appears to be a Tropical Storm making landfall in South Florida in 84hrs or

Image


Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2911 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:06 am

12Z NAM landfall S.Fla in 78 hours

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016082512&fh=78&xpos=0&ypos=300
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10147
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2912 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:07 am

99L moving at modest clip near NW and about to cross 72W... HWRF has 99L in Keys @90hrs... Serious slow down going to need to occur soon...
1 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2913 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:10 am

Blown Away wrote:99L moving at modest clip near NW and about to cross 72W... HWRF has 99L in Keys @90hrs... Serious slow down going to need to occur soon...


Are you seeing a NW heading or more of a westerly heading. It looked to me to be more west without a northerly component. The ridge to the north is very stout.
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20010
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2914 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:11 am

Can you all move these kinds of discussions to the discussion thread please? Thanks.
2 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
N2FSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1062
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: Tallahassee, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2915 Postby N2FSU » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:30 am

12z GFS +12hr

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145360
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2916 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:35 am

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/768832881422577665


0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2917 Postby chris_fit » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:46 am

12Z GFS a complete weak mess at 54 hours in the lower bahamas
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2918 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:47 am

GFS continues to be unimpressed with 99L at 54 hours...

Image
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
User avatar
tarheelprogrammer
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1793
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:25 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC area (Garner, NC)

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2919 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:54 am

GFS seems to be a little faster this run. Already past the straight at 78 hours. :eek:
0 likes   
My posts are not official forecasts. They are just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2920 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:56 am

GFS at 78 hours...Vorticity elongated east to west...

Image
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2016”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests