ATL: HERMINE - Models

[PTrackerLA]

One thing for sure, ridging looks STRONG this run. Good news is still no development from 12z GFS.

[Bocadude85]

At 84 hours on the GFS the strongest vort is in the NW Bahamas....

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2016082512&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=265

Even stronger Vort in NW Bahamas at 90 hours

[Steve]

At 84 hours on the GFS the strongest vort is in the NW Bahamas....

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2016082512&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=265

It depicts the low a couple of times at 850mb on Cuba before 84 hours. It's splitting energy or sending another piece west. Need more run to load at 850mb.

[stormlover2013]

and that's why I am looking at the upper dynamics and not what the GFS system wise...the player in all of this is what is the ridge going to do.

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS is struggling to find anything to close off but still nothing there. Even the vort in the NW Bahamas at 90 hours is relatively weak. I'm not even going to post anymore images of this run unless something materializes.

[Bocadude85]

At 84 hours on the GFS the strongest vort is in the NW Bahamas....

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2016082512&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=265

It depicts the low a couple of times at 850mb on Cuba before 84 hours. It's splitting energy or sending another piece west. Need more run to load at 850mb.

Its has to be splitting the energy.. has even stronger vort of Fla coast at 96 hours

[rickybobby]

As of 12 pm on wesh only 3 models are going through Florida. The rest are closer to Cuba and it recurves and hits AL/LA.

[BucMan2]

actually the other important player I learned from a fellow S2K member will be the approaching shortwave in the Midwest which might cause it to weaken and shift allowing 99L to drift north.

[Steve]

and that's why I am looking at the upper dynamics and not what the GFS system wise...the player in all of this is what is the ridge going to do.

The ridge at 500 looks stronger and centered near the Smokys in 4 days rather than moving off the VA Coast as it had suggested in a recent run. Interesting to me, but I'm not putting any stock in it until later runs.

[gatorcane]

CMC MUCH weaker into South Florida

[PTrackerLA]

Well looks like the GFS and Euro remain on different planets with regards to 99L intensity wise. This looks like one of the weakest GFS runs so far yet the ridge is stronger and it seems to take whatever remains of 99L further west into the gulf but I'm not even sure what to track on the vorticity at this point .

[Alyono]

getting hard to ignore the MU now

This may end up as yet another massive EC fail, of which it has had several major ones. When the EC fails, it REALLY FAILS

[stormlover2013]

ridge is stronger!!!! no doubt about that

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/768840099278819329

[Bocadude85]

CMC MUCH weaker into South Florida

[img]

The CMC moves the "center" over Cuba in 18 hours..

[MississippiWx]

getting hard to ignore the MU now

This may end up as yet another massive EC fail, of which it has had several major ones. When the EC fails, it REALLY FAILS

I'm beginning to feel the same. CMC has gone the route of the GFS now too.

[Alyono]

getting hard to ignore the MU now

This may end up as yet another massive EC fail, of which it has had several major ones. When the EC fails, it REALLY FAILS

MU has a large upper low in the NE Gulf. Nothing developing in the Gulf as long as that upper low is there. Even the CMC now has an upper low for the NE Gulf.

I wonder if the POS EC convective scheme caused feedback issues that led to it developing its PHANTOM upper ridge?

[WeatherEmperor]

getting hard to ignore the MU now

This may end up as yet another massive EC fail, of which it has had several major ones. When the EC fails, it REALLY FAILS

Which ever ends up failing (probably the EURO it looks) this will be one of the biggest and most shocking busts of all time in the tropics. Never saw this coming...


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[OntarioEggplant]

I find it interesting that people are jumping off a bridge because two of the worst global models in the tropics agree with each other.

[RL3AO]

I find it interesting that people are jumping off a bridge because two of the worst global models in the tropics agree with each other.

It's still too soon to know for sure but after upgrades this year that title might go to the Euro.