ATL: HERMINE - Models

[OntarioEggplant]

I find it interesting that people are jumping off a bridge because two of the worst global models in the tropics agree with each other.

It's still too soon to know for sure but after upgrades this year that title might go to the Euro.

The Euro has still been much more accurate than the GFS overall this year.

[WeatherEmperor]

I find it interesting that people are jumping off a bridge because two of the worst global models in the tropics agree with each other.

I think people are jumping off the bridge because what is considered to be the best global model in the world (and has been for a long time) is on the verge of one of the most epic fails in its history...in the tropics.



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[Alyono]

I find it interesting that people are jumping off a bridge because two of the worst global models in the tropics agree with each other.

It's still too soon to know for sure but after upgrades this year that title might go to the Euro.

The Euro has still been much more accurate than the GFS overall this year.

Not really

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF Initialized

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/768844543924039684

[Siker]

UKMET and Canadian both way west, like LA/TX west:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 24.8N 81.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.08.2016 84 24.6N 81.8W 1006 25
1200UTC 29.08.2016 96 25.0N 83.4W 1004 28
0000UTC 30.08.2016 108 25.3N 84.1W 1001 34
1200UTC 30.08.2016 120 25.8N 84.9W 998 41
0000UTC 31.08.2016 132 26.3N 85.4W 993 44
1200UTC 31.08.2016 144 26.9N 86.5W 985 57

[Dean4Storms]

Call me skeptical of the GFS and GEM failing to even produce a closed low out of a robust TW in the Bahamas or Gulf in late August. I have seen worse looking upper level conditions forecast and still get a 60 mph TS.

[NotoSans]

Model can be consistent but still be wrong in the end due to possible major flaws in its dynamics. One of the models is going to fail. Let's see whether the GFS or the Euro will win the battle.

[Siker]

Landfall on the Canadian:

[Alyono]

I find it interesting that people are jumping off a bridge because two of the worst global models in the tropics agree with each other.

I think people are jumping off the bridge because what is considered to be the best global model in the world (and has been for a long time) is on the verge of one of the most epic fails in its history...in the tropics.



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Not quite the biggest EC fail

It intensified Erika to a cat 4 near South Carolina last year. This would be back to back MASSIVE EC fails in late August

[stormlover2013]

Boy that ridge doesn't back down

[PTrackerLA]

Although a TOTALLY different situation, this has to remind everyone of the Joaquin debacle last year. I was convinced the Euro was out to lunch when EVERY other model had it hitting the east coast for nearly two days. Now it's the showdown for GFS.

[PTrackerLA]

Interesting, 12z UKMET still implies a solid hurricane in the Gulf and further westward as well .

If the 12z Euro still shows a cane in the gulf this would be the SEVENTH run in row. Pretty astonishing.

[Siker]

I find it interesting that people are jumping off a bridge because two of the worst global models in the tropics agree with each other.

I think people are jumping off the bridge because what is considered to be the best global model in the world (and has been for a long time) is on the verge of one of the most epic fails in its history...in the tropics.



Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

Not quite the biggest EC fail

It intensified Erika to a cat 4 near South Carolina last year. This would be back to back MASSIVE EC fails in late August

To be fair, the GFS also did that for multiple runs, longer than the Euro in fact (like Joaquin).

[gatorcane]

Not just an EC fail but a UKMET fail also. Not done yet but the GFS may just have gotten this right. Pretty MASSIVE EC fail may be in the making...

[Alyono]

Call me skeptical of the GFS and GEM failing to even produce a closed low out of a robust TW in the Bahamas or Gulf in late August. I have seen worse looking upper level conditions forecast and still get a 60 mph TS.

Thsoe situations had favorable low level winds. We are not seeing that with this system

[HurriGuy]

somebody post pic of UKMET please

[stormlover2013]

any images on the ukmet?

[PTrackerLA]

You can see the new UKMet track here in blue:

[OntarioEggplant]

I find it interesting that people are jumping off a bridge because two of the worst global models in the tropics agree with each other.

I think people are jumping off the bridge because what is considered to be the best global model in the world (and has been for a long time) is on the verge of one of the most epic fails in its history...in the tropics.



Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

There is no evidence to support this conclusion yet. For the most part, the Euro has been the most accurate model with the evolution of 99L and its environment so far.