ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[deltadog03]

Ok, I think I see some low level swirl on the bottom right circle...What do y'all think? I know your going to have to loop it another the sat sight, but tell me what y'all think. I don't think the first vortex is gonna do squat.

Looks to me to be part of the MLC left behind, nothing but southerly winds underneath it.

Sounds good...it looked like it had some Low level cloud elements so I wanted to make sure...Thanks!

[SoupBone]

My gut instinct (which admittedly has checkered record) is sensing an overall lower potential of development. things are just not working here. that does not mean I'm checking out/writing this off...I just don't think the high likelihood of development exists anymore. what I'm really watching for is whether or not the NHC begins to lower those 5 day chances in little 10% increments. that will be telling. in the meantime I'm still watching because I'm a weather fanatic and it's the heart of hurricane season.

It's easy to write this off because of it being convection-less. However, this is also forecast by the models that do develop 99L. I'm able to see the Euro and all of its details because I'm a paid member of Weatherbell. It keeps 99L with very few thunderstorms for 2 more days before developing it. The HWRF is the same way. Most models still develop it, but they just vary on strength, obviously. Very frustrating system to track.

It's strange though. On visible, that swirl is moving away from the convection to its south. If something doesn't change, what happens next?

[centuryv58]

My gut instinct (which admittedly has checkered record) is sensing an overall lower potential of development. things are just not working here. that does not mean I'm checking out/writing this off...I just don't think the high likelihood of development exists anymore. what I'm really watching for is whether or not the NHC begins to lower those 5 day chances in little 10% increments. that will be telling. in the meantime I'm still watching because I'm a weather fanatic and it's the heart of hurricane season.

It's easy to write this off because of it being convection-less. However, this is also forecast by the models that do develop 99L. I'm able to see the Euro and all of its details because I'm a paid member of Weatherbell. It keeps 99L with very few thunderstorms for 2 more days before developing it. The HWRF is the same way. Most models still develop it, but they just vary on strength, obviously. Very frustrating system to track.

It's strange though. On visible, that swirl is moving away from the convection to its south. If something doesn't change, what happens next?

Maybe the Euro next run? But we'll all know by Sat eve

[Frank2]

it's a weak system with multiple eddies - hopefully that's that, but never say never (where's the Star Trek guy)...

[SoupBone]

It's easy to write this off because of it being convection-less. However, this is also forecast by the models that do develop 99L. I'm able to see the Euro and all of its details because I'm a paid member of Weatherbell. It keeps 99L with very few thunderstorms for 2 more days before developing it. The HWRF is the same way. Most models still develop it, but they just vary on strength, obviously. Very frustrating system to track.

It's strange though. On visible, that swirl is moving away from the convection to its south. If something doesn't change, what happens next?

Maybe the Euro next run? But we'll all know by Sat eve

I always find it interesting when this board gets eerily quiet.

That swirl doesn't seem to like the skin its been given and is seeking out a new one.

[deltadog03]

Let's all remember no model has this developing at all really until later tomorrow night into the Bahamas.

[HurriGuy]

It's funny how the ECMWF actually did not have any precip during this time on the 00z run an yet I am still thinking that 99L is about done.

[northjaxpro]

Let's all remember no model has this developing at all really until later tomorrow night into the Bahamas.

Great point. This is pretty much right and the chief reason why I am not throwing the towel in about this. Saturday will be the critical day as far as I am concerned.

[adam0983]

This is captain James T Kirk here can you get me on the phone with Dr. McCoy aka Bones. Yes this is Dr. McCoy here what do you need Captain Kirk. I need you to beam down to invest 99L and finish this annoying system off once and for all so we can stop making ourselves crazy watching this annoying rain maker. I am going to invest 99L right now Captain Kirk. Just an opinion not a forecast.

[OntarioEggplant]

Well the Euro at least initialized it pretty excellently

[SoupBone]

Let's all remember no model has this developing at all really until later tomorrow night into the Bahamas.

I completely agree, but what are your current thoughts about the swirl telling its convection to take a hike for now? I'm no met, but if it doesn't start popping some convection, it can't continue to dance around naked forever.

[robbielyn]

Let's hope it doesn't. Cause if the Euro verifies I am really really worried about the N Gulf Coast especially LA if it gets close enough they don't need 1 drop of rain let alone inches of it.

[cycloneye]

Down to 40%-70%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
moving westward at 15 to 20 mph through the southeastern Bahamas.
Satellite wind data and reports from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft this morning indicate that the system still
lacks a closed circulation, and that the strongest winds associated
with the system likely have decreased to below tropical storm
strength. In addition, shower and thunderstorm activity has become
significantly less organized during the past 24 hours. Although
upper-level winds are not conducive for significant development
during the next day or so, they could become a little more favorable
over the weekend or early next week when the wave is expected to
approach southern Florida or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Regardless of development, heavy rains, with the potential to
cause flash floods and mudslides, are likely over Hispaniola
today. This system could produce gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall over portions of the Bahamas during the next day or two.
Interests in South Florida and the Florida Keys should monitor the
progress of this disturbance since it is possible that some impacts,
at a minimum heavy rains and gusty winds, will occur beginning this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown

[BucMan2]

can anyone name storms (besides Andrew) that became hurricane after having a naked swirl as long as 99L has?

[SeGaBob]

I know this wasn't supposed to develop until the Bahamas, but seeing the NHC lower the chances casts some doubt.

[northjaxpro]

Psyclone, your instincts were correct. NHC did go down 10% indeed in their 2 day and 5 day outlook. for the 2 p.m. TWO. Now at 40/70 respectfully.

[Agua]

can anyone name storms (besides Andrew) that became hurricane after having a naked swirl as long as 99L has?

Katrina

[indianforever]

If it stays weak or undeveloped would that indicate a more westerly path?

[ROCK]

2007 Chris got decapitated by unforeseen mid level shear and never recovered....the naked swirl did make it to Texas though....

[psyclone]

There's the 10% drop I've been waiting on. 70% is still high but it's the trendline that's worth watching. If the system continues to look as bad as it is...you can drain the probability pool pretty fast with 10% reductions every 6 hours. OTOH, if things change we're already pretty far up the ladder. I think overall this is a pragmatic move. Looking back the system looked best when it was near Guadeloupe. still watching with interest while acknowledging the obvious.