ATL: HERMINE - Models

[hohnywx]

Euro no longer supports development before it reaches the GoM. Looks like it is trending towards the GFS.

A trend is multiple runs in a row... This is a single run.

I would agree with you if not for the fact that 99L is nothing but a winding down naked swirl at the moment.

That still doesn't make it a trend. It's one run.

[stormlover2013]

and this morning yall were saying GFS was trending to the euro lol......... All models have struggled with wave really bad

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/768874353383596032

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like landfall 998mb @ 132 hrs basically same spot as last 2 Euro runs.

[tolakram]

Animation of the 12Z euro run

[SSB]

A trend is multiple runs in a row... This is a single run.

I would agree with you if not for the fact that 99L is nothing but a winding down naked swirl at the moment.

That still doesn't make it a trend. It's one run.

Euro has been trending toward the GFS since 0Z on Aug 23rd, especially with the intensity (lack thereof) forecast as the system approaches south Florida.

[Comanche]

Model data question: The research mission/flight data missions that people talk about for better input into model runs, does that data go into just GFS/American models, or do we share the data for input into the European model? In other words, did the 12z Euro have the same new data input in this run?

[hohnywx]

Model data question: The research mission/flight data missions that people talk about for better input into model runs, does that data go into just GFS/American models, or do we share the data for input into the European model? In other words, did the 12z Euro have the same new data input in this run?

Yes, the data is shared, but it was not going to be available until the 18z runs. Meaning that the Euro will not have it until 00z tonight.

[Comanche]

Model data question: The research mission/flight data missions that people talk about for better input into model runs, does that data go into just GFS/American models, or do we share the data for input into the European model? In other words, did the 12z Euro have the same new data input in this run?

Yes, the data is shared, but it was not going to be available until the 18z runs. Meaning that the Euro will not have it until 00z tonight.

Thank you, have been curious about shared data or not.

[capepoint]

This thread has to be a record. 151 pages in the model thread for a storm and it has not even formed yet lol.

[caneman]

Anyone know how strong that is once around Tampa Bay coastal,waters?

[hohnywx]

Anyone know how strong that is once around Tampa Bay coastal,waters?

Going explicitly by the Euro, in the area of a strong TS.

[TheStormExpert]

ALL HAIL KING GFS!!! Will not doubt you ever again!

[Blown Away]

After 150 pages of model discussion, this is one for the Storm2k record books of uncertainty...

[jasons2k]

Not really surprising given the trend, will stay weaker and on the SW side of guidance until it gels, prob not until the FL Straits IMO.

Biggest thing with these systems fighting shear is patience...

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/768893045769068545

[PTrackerLA]

Oh good grief the 18z model plots LOL. What a bizarre evolution of events with the models this week.

[davidiowx]

Oh good grief the 18z model plots LOL. What a bizarre evolution of events with the models this week.

To say the least! And almost all of the intensity models have this as a TS in the 48 to 72 hour time frame lol

[WeatherEmperor]

Oh good grief the 18z model plots LOL. What a bizarre evolution of events with the models this week.

To say the least! And almost all of the intensity models have this as a TS in the 48 to 72 hour time frame lol

Can you post a graphic for the 18Z intensity guidance?

[PTrackerLA]

Just for the record here was the 12z UKMET. I believe it's the only model still showing a hurricane in the GOM. I'm not sure why this model gets so much credit it's been awful with 99L and many other storms I've watched over the past couple of years.