ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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tarheelprogrammer
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2321 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Thu Aug 25, 2016 4:16 pm

gatorcane wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:Might be an LLC forming to the east in the blow up of clouds above Hisp.


Interesting that the NASA floater has not moved west in tandem with the Bahamas swirl, it is still focused on the DR area. Some kind of swirl is there but probably just mid-level and eyes playing tricks on me! :)

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=black


I am talking about right above DR in the blow up of clouds 22N and 69W.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2322 Postby TropicalSailor » Thu Aug 25, 2016 4:17 pm

idaknowman wrote:I have seen several references to a certain 'hour time'. For example - at 132 hours.

What exactly does that mean, and when does hour 1 start? :?: :?:


When the model is run I believe
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2323 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 4:18 pm

my weatherman say we know soon if 99l is goner if go into cuba as moving west
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2324 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 25, 2016 4:18 pm

later after the convection over Hispaniola collapses it may send out some outflow boundary's to help get some convection going..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2325 Postby JaxGator » Thu Aug 25, 2016 4:19 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
TropicalSailor wrote:
JaxGator wrote:
Thank you for info Aric. A new center possible along the wave axis?


Original center just plowing the road for the new center to explode? Geez


first things first.. you need convection to any of this.,...


That is true indeed, we do. Guess we'll see this evening and overnight.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2326 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 4:22 pm

With a track of a west of FL with a loose system the east coast fetch is going to make for several inches of rain on East side of the state. Assuming it does what GFS and Euro advertise.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2327 Postby robbielyn » Thu Aug 25, 2016 4:22 pm

idaknowman wrote:I have seen several references to a certain 'hour time'. For example - at 132 hours.

What exactly does that mean, and when does hour 1 start? :?: :?:

1 hour is from when the model initializes so 132 hours from now the storm could be at sucu and such coordinants and such and such intensity.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2328 Postby xcool22 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 4:23 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2329 Postby HurriGuy » Thu Aug 25, 2016 4:23 pm

I feel it is important to note that the Upper High just north of the axis is almost in a favorable position. It's not quite there yet, but it will be something to watch for the next 12-24 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2330 Postby MaineWeatherNut » Thu Aug 25, 2016 4:24 pm

xcool22 wrote:



yep all done :ggreen:


NOT done considering that isn't the true center of 99L based on recon...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2331 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 4:24 pm

question what pulling storm east side to ne of center could that be upper low east of Bahamas?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2332 Postby HurriGuy » Thu Aug 25, 2016 4:25 pm

And as I pointed out earlier, that ULL up by the east coast won't have any affect. Going almost WSW around the ridge.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2333 Postby HurriGuy » Thu Aug 25, 2016 4:29 pm

Somebody correct me if I am wrong, but the wave axis is positively tilted right now? I checked NAM initialization to make sure and I believe I am right?

Makes sense looking at water vapor loop
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2334 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Aug 25, 2016 4:33 pm

floridasun78 wrote:my weatherman say we know soon if 99l is goner if go into cuba as moving west
who is your weatherman?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2335 Postby rickybobby » Thu Aug 25, 2016 4:34 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:my weatherman say we know soon if 99l is goner if go into cuba as moving west
who is your weatherman?


Wesh 2 said the same thing. It has a good chance of going straight into Cuba.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2336 Postby robbielyn » Thu Aug 25, 2016 4:36 pm

HurriGuy wrote:Somebody correct me if I am wrong, but the wave axis is positively tilted right now? I checked NAM initialization to make sure and I believe I am right?

Makes sense looking at water vapor loop

if that were correct, what does that mean for 99L?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2337 Postby alienstorm » Thu Aug 25, 2016 4:38 pm

The old MLC is inside DR and the potential I believe lies over the northern coast of DR. I truly believe the naked swirl is a no-show and we should pay attention to the northern coast of DR for potential formation if and once the MLC comes out.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2338 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 25, 2016 4:40 pm

latest images. convection coming off Hispaniola is building northward and the low level cloud deck has expanded well offshore.. could see a convective burst finally.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2339 Postby La Sirena » Thu Aug 25, 2016 4:40 pm

Was watching the IR Rainbow sat over the DR and it looked like the storm just kicked up and expanded out. Crazy cool.

Beginner weather geek moment over.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2340 Postby curtadams » Thu Aug 25, 2016 4:44 pm

The activity on the north coast of Hispaniola is about the right place for the moisture coming from the LLC to be blown onto the mountains by mid-level shear. I don't think it's of much consequence.
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