ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SouthFLTropics]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/768909120837517312

Perhaps 99L will get a mention on ESPN NFL Countdown's "C'mon Man" segment this week!!! LOL

[HurriGuy]

If the energy makes it into the Florida Strait and pops into the Gulf, there will be a little dry air, but prime conditions. Won't be much of any sheer with that big upper high forecasted to be parked over the Gulf.

GFS and NAM have been trending with mid to upper level low over lower Texas and maybe some quick tropical mischief. This trend has let to the upper high pushing further east. And the further east it goes, I feel the better conditions will be.

[HurriGuy]

Very complex upper air pattern. ULL over south Texas, one south of Carolinas and another east of Bahamas. Together they will trap a upper high over Gulf and it will be stuck there.

[robbielyn]

latest images. convection coming off Hispaniola is building northward and the low level cloud deck has expanded well offshore.. could see a convective burst finally.

That is exactly what it looks like it's doing. pulling the convection towards the center as it gets further away from haiti. I also dont think it's going into cuba either. I think it will stay in the bahamas and/or go thru the straits and get stronger just hv no idea how strong. but less sheer and hot water could revive her. It will be interesting to see if she can be revived. she needs resuscitation and that warm water and decreasing sheer might do it at least somewhat.

[Frank P]

Say what you want about 99L but to me this is the best kind of storm to track; nothing simple, models flipping and flopping, frustrating everyone, some kill it off, others keep thinking if it can hold on a little longer it has a chance, dry air, the dreaded shear monster, oh wait another LLC developing, stacking issue, model wars... This is like watching reality TV except in the written vernacular... Ha... what a great little discombobulated system to track, and if it goes POOF... so be it... but I am still going to watch it until it does! Thank you 99L for entertaining me for the past several days!

[SouthFLTropics]

Where are we thinking it may be starting to spin up along the wave axis? Is it around 21N and 69W? I see some more rotation over DR but I highly doubt that you guys are looking for something spinning up over land...Unless we really are that desperate at this point.

[HurriGuy]

I will say this, if the energy can quickly get to the southeast Gulf tucked in under the upper High, I think we are going to be surprised at the outcome.

If it lags behind in the Bahamas or gets stuck on Cuba, it might be caught in a bad spot.

[SouthFLTropics]

Say what you want about 99L but to me this is the best kind of storm to track; nothing simple, models flipping and flopping, frustrating everyone, some kill it off, others keep thinking if it can hold on a little longer it has a chance, dry air, the dreaded shear monster, oh wait another LLC developing, stacking issue, model wars... This is like watching reality TV except in the written vernacular... Ha... what a great little discombobulated system to track, and if it goes POOF... so be it... but I am still going to watch it until it does! Thank you 99L for entertaining me for the past several days!

That's a very good point Frank...Plus, a lot can be learned from tracking a system such as this. It's only 8/25...We got a long 6-8 weeks left of prime time and I'm sure we will get a chance to track something significant during that time.

[blp]

System remains decoupled. Low level vort is over the Turks and mid level over Hispaniola. Where have I heard that story before Seems like we deal with this all time now. In any case, I find it hard to believe it can come together unless somehow Hispanola can do some magic and destroy the mid level circ.

Mid Level Circ.

[Frank P]

Say what you want about 99L but to me this is the best kind of storm to track; nothing simple, models flipping and flopping, frustrating everyone, some kill it off, others keep thinking if it can hold on a little longer it has a chance, dry air, the dreaded shear monster, oh wait another LLC developing, stacking issue, model wars... This is like watching reality TV except in the written vernacular... Ha... what a great little discombobulated system to track, and if it goes POOF... so be it... but I am still going to watch it until it does! Thank you 99L for entertaining me for the past several days!

That's a very good point Frank...Plus, a lot can be learned from tracking a system such as this. It's only 8/25...We got a long 6-8 weeks left of prime time and I'm sure we will get a chance to track something significant during that time.

Oh hell yeah SouthFLTropics, the season is just getting started.. if nothing else I have a plethora of gas for my generator on hand!

[HURRICANELONNY]

I hope people don't get complacent cause not much will come out of this. Most likely. Your right the season just getting started down here in S.Fl.

[Nimbus]

There is a way you can tell if a low level vort still has a pressure gradient.
I'm hearing that my land interaction with Cuba forecast is verifying, Jamaica?
When the wave axis gets north of the Windward passage maybe we will see a reformation?

[blp]

I hope people don't get complacent cause not much will come out of this. Most likely. Your right the season just getting started down here in S.Fl.

I think the term exhaustion fits my mood. I hope they all don't turn out to be this difficult to track. I might need to take a storm tracking vacation

[SeGaBob]

latest images. convection coming off Hispaniola is building northward and the low level cloud deck has expanded well offshore.. could see a convective burst finally.

I'm not sure I see the same thing.

[wxman57]

Say what you want about 99L but to me this is the best kind of storm to track; nothing simple, models flipping and flopping, frustrating everyone, some kill it off, others keep thinking if it can hold on a little longer it has a chance, dry air, the dreaded shear monster, oh wait another LLC developing, stacking issue, model wars... This is like watching reality TV except in the written vernacular... Ha... what a great little discombobulated system to track, and if it goes POOF... so be it... but I am still going to watch it until it does! Thank you 99L for entertaining me for the past several days!

I'd have to disagree with you there, Frank. Having to send out 7-day forecasts to hundreds of clients on something so uncertain isn't the best kind of storm to track. I'd much prefer it be a stable Cat 3-4 with a well-defined eye, along with great model agreement. This is a pain in the butt to track as an operational forecaster.

I've just about conceded that this disturbance is history, no development. That low-level vortex is meaningless without surface convergence, don't even focus on it. As I've always said, the center is going to follow (or form near) the convection. There's not much of that (over water) to focus on, either. Lacking anything to focus convergence at the surface, it's done.

[stormhunter7]

One thing at concerns me is now we are seeing the moisture fire storms along SE Florida. As 99l approaches, i think will see a deep convection burst near center overnight tonight. Even with shear, which shows signs to me is weaking ahead and over 99l.

[stormhunter7]

dang, i missed the sat update, but you can see convection firing on the SE of COC of 99l as its crosses over Inagua Islands in Bahamas

[ObsessedMiami]

Weather Channel running with "plowing into Cuba" scenario

[HurriGuy]

It is pretty clear that vortex is going straight into Cuba, but as noted earlier. This is still a tropical wave moving WNW towards Bahamas. Yeah it has to start allover, but I will still keep a close eye.

[Aric Dunn]

finally some convection firing right around the vort for the first time since it was near guadalupe .