ATL: HERMINE - Models

[davidiowx]

Oh good grief the 18z model plots LOL. What a bizarre evolution of events with the models this week.

To say the least! And almost all of the intensity models have this as a TS in the 48 to 72 hour time frame lol

Can you post a graphic for the 18Z intensity guidance?

[jasons2k]

I'm not sure why this model gets so much credit.

It doesn't

At least by those in the know - lol.

[HurriGuy]

It has been fun to watch the NAM. Almost the same thing every run. Only consistent one out there. Lol.

Also note the feature in the northwest Gulf. I had seen some hints of this on some other models before. Wouldn't need the rain in the area.

And another note, the ECMWF ensembles/control have been trending to more lowering pressures across the Gulf. Not sure if it even means anything in the long term, but is interesting

[gatorcane]

The NAM is no longer tracking the vorticity in the Bahamas. It tracks something further east currently along the coast of Hispaniola. Animated GIF below:

[TexWx]

Heck I'm more concerned with that area of low pressure spinning up near Galveston in 40 hours.

[Steve]

I'm not sure why this model gets so much credit.

It doesn't

At least by those in the know - lol.

That isn't accurate. It's used pretty regularly by the NHC in their discussions and forecasts. I have no vested interest but still...

[Aric Dunn]

The NAM is no longer tracking the vorticity in the Bahamas. It tracks something further east currently along the coast of Hispaniola. Animated GIF below:

actually its not that far east. its still from the wave axis which is just east of the swirl..

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=161

[SeGaBob]

18z GFS will have new data right?

[jasons2k]

There was a comment yesterday that the dynamic models don't need a defined LLC to be accurate; that it doesn't matter. I think we're seeing evidence that it does.

I've seen comments and updates from several Pro Mets (Jeff L. included) that have stated that until we have a defined center, the models will jump around. It's been that way as long as I can remember too. Also, 50 miles either way @ initialization can have a big difference extrapolating 5-7 days out.

And yes looks like a wet weekend for Coastal Texas.

[AdamFirst]

Will models initialize from the wave axis now or will they still initialize from the swirl approaching Cuba?

[jason1912]

18z GFS initialized.

[Alyono]

looking at the EC precip fields, it has caved to the MU big time

It is showing a June-like tropical storm. Structure is not that dissimilar to Colin

[StormHunter72]

There was a comment yesterday that the dynamic models don't need a defined LLC to be accurate; that it doesn't matter. I think we're seeing evidence that it does.

I've seen comments and updates from several Pro Mets (Jeff L. included) that have stated that until we have a defined center, the models will jump around. It's been that way as long as I can remember too. Also, 50 miles either way @ initialization can have a big difference extrapolating 5-7 days out.

And yes looks like a wet weekend for Coastal Texas.

yep that was me.

[Alyono]

New MU takes the disturbance well into the Gulf, more in line with the Canadian and UKMET. However, it has strongly convergent upper flow and the low level vorticity gradually decays

[OntarioEggplant]

I'm starting to agree with everyone that the vort by Cuba is going to die in favor of the MLC by Hispaniola. It just looks much more organized and has convective activity

I meant to add that models will have more trouble until they recognize this other center as the main one going forward.

[jasons2k]

I wouldn't expect a dominant center any time soon...I'm sticking with FL Straits....if it survives.

[South Texas Storms]

18z HWRF looks reasonable over the next 96 hours. It shows a convectionless center for the next few days until it gets near the Florida Keys where it starts to fire up showers and storms near the center again. The track of it is farther south with it passing just north of the Yucatan Strait on Monday while strengthening.

I'm not ready to give up on this disturbance yet. It still has the support of a few models (including the UKMET and HWRF), and you shouldn't completely rule out a wave moving across the Gulf in late August.

[mcheer23]

HWRF blowing it up and moving it west. Currently at 87w 24n.....If i had to guess...Texas.

[mcheer23]

Run ends as a Cat 2 near 25n 89w

[stormhunter7]

I believe the HWRF is taking in the relaxed shear in the GOM and keeps blowing 99l up. It just cant get the low level flow around the High. I feel its a combo of CMC/UKMET/EURO...