ATL: HERMINE - Models

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Bailey1777
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3061 Postby Bailey1777 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:02 pm

Question...are they initializing off the swirl or where the models expect formation?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3062 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:26 pm

0Z Nam into Fla Keys

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2016082600&fh=63&xpos=0&ypos=434
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3063 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:29 pm

Reminder folks, your off topic posts are not safe in here. :D

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=118193

Please take most of the discussion to the discussion thread unless it's pertaining to a model run. Help keep these model threads less cluttered. Thanks.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3064 Postby Bailey1777 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:30 pm

I notice on a lot of models they keep showing a separate system hitting Texas, what is that all about?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3065 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:36 pm

0Z GFS running

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3066 Postby MississippiWx » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:38 pm

So far the 0z GFS is a little stronger with the vort, a little more consolidated, and a little farther north. Who knows if it translates into anything later in the run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3067 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:41 pm

Really close to Cuba
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3068 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:43 pm

GFS Trend
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3069 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:51 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3070 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:51 pm

gfs 00z 60H

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3071 Postby STRiZZY » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:53 pm

0Z GFS 60H

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_11.png
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3072 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:57 pm

Howdy,

Please remember to copy images to an image hosting site before embedding them in a post. Thanks! :)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3073 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:59 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3074 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:07 pm

gfs 00z 102H

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3075 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:09 pm

GFS is showing a much stronger 850 mb vort max in the east central Gulf at 108 hours than it has in several runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3076 Postby HurriGuy » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:13 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:GFS is showing a much stronger 850 mb vort max in the east central Gulf at 108 hours than it has in several runs.



Go read my posts on the last couple of pages in the discussion forum. I am onto something
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3077 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:13 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:GFS is showing a much stronger 850 mb vort max in the east central Gulf at 108 hours than it has in several runs.


The vort max is stronger through much of the run so far. Seems like we are right on the cusp of GFS showing development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3078 Postby stormwise » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:13 pm

Image
Image
Image
HWRF forms the storm in Florida straits, EC person myself but not a cherry model picker. :)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3079 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:15 pm

HurriGuy wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:GFS is showing a much stronger 850 mb vort max in the east central Gulf at 108 hours than it has in several runs.



Go read my posts on the last couple of pages in the discussion forum. I am onto something


Yeah I think you may be on to something. The 0z Canadian is also back to developing it this weekend as it approached SE Florida.

The dropsondes may be informing the 0z models of a slightly better environment in a few days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3080 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:16 pm

This thread will be popping soon
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