ATL: HERMINE - Models

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HurriGuy
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3081 Postby HurriGuy » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:17 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
HurriGuy wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:GFS is showing a much stronger 850 mb vort max in the east central Gulf at 108 hours than it has in several runs.



Go read my posts on the last couple of pages in the discussion forum. I am onto something


Yeah I think you may be on to something. The 0z Canadian is also back to developing it this weekend as it approached SE Florida.

The dropsondes may be informing the 0z models of a slightly better environment in a few days.


Agreed. Just look at the upper air pattern GFS has in just 18 hours. Only inhibiting factor is the wave's proximity to Cuba.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3082 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:18 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:This thread will be popping soon


Yep, I'm quite interested to see what the remaining 0z model guidance does with this disturbance. I don't think it's dead yet.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3083 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:19 pm

0Z Canadian back on board with development...landfall SFla in 60 hours..maybe as a TS?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016082600&fh=60&xpos=0&ypos=220
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3084 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:22 pm

gfs 0z 156h

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3085 Postby HurriGuy » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:25 pm

I would pay no mind to the intensity because as stated, if just 100 miles more southwest more tucked in the upper high, something like that can rapidly intensify
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3086 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:26 pm

issue that Canadian models show low that want into cuba
Last edited by floridasun78 on Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3087 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:26 pm

174H

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3088 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:27 pm

Image

Something stalling off the coast like that can rapidly intensify.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3089 Postby Alyono » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:28 pm

UKMET stronger

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.08.2016 25.5N 82.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2016 25.8N 83.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2016 26.0N 85.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2016 26.0N 85.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2016 26.3N 86.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.08.2016 26.6N 86.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.09.2016 27.0N 86.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3090 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:29 pm

Alyono wrote:UKMET stronger

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.08.2016 25.5N 82.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2016 25.8N 83.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2016 26.0N 85.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2016 26.0N 85.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2016 26.3N 86.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.08.2016 26.6N 86.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.09.2016 27.0N 86.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


Thanks for posting this. So far, all 0z models are stronger with this system.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3091 Postby HurriGuy » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:30 pm

I am going to keep hammering this home until everyone sees it.

The upper high forecasted to be over the Gulf is going to be the biggest factor.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3092 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:31 pm

What in millibars signifies "strong" on the UKMET?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3093 Postby Alyono » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:32 pm

985mb is listed as moderate on the UKMET, so it is lower than that
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3094 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:33 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
Alyono wrote:UKMET stronger

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.08.2016 25.5N 82.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2016 25.8N 83.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2016 26.0N 85.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2016 26.0N 85.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2016 26.3N 86.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.08.2016 26.6N 86.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.09.2016 27.0N 86.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


Thanks for posting this. So far, all 0z models are stronger with this system.
were link to ukmet because i see that tropicaltidbits dont have it or go other name
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3095 Postby Alyono » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:33 pm

floridasun78 wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
Alyono wrote:UKMET stronger

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.08.2016 25.5N 82.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2016 25.8N 83.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2016 26.0N 85.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2016 26.0N 85.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2016 26.3N 86.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.08.2016 26.6N 86.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.09.2016 27.0N 86.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


Thanks for posting this. So far, all 0z models are stronger with this system.
were link to ukmet because i see that tropicaltidbits dont have it or go other name


I get the info in my e-mail
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3096 Postby HurriGuy » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:33 pm

Just looking at the coordinates you gave for the UKMET at STRONG, that is in a prime location in the Gulf
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3097 Postby blazess556 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:33 pm

Link to UKMET: http://meteocentre.com/models/models.ph ... &dd=latest
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3098 Postby HurriGuy » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:34 pm



Still only shows 12z at the moment. Give it probably 10 minutes
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3099 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:37 pm

Where does ukmet put it at
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3100 Postby stormwise » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:38 pm

last available run i know off was the 12z.
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