ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blinhart]

Hispaniola can destroy tropical systems even if the storm's circulation avoids the island. Had a feeling that would happen.

Are you guys even watching the Models, all of them are coming around to genesis in a couple to few days with it getting stronger in the GoM, no way you can say that this thing is dead or destroyed.

[N2FSU]

Hispaniola can destroy tropical systems even if the storm's circulation avoids the island. Had a feeling that would happen.

Are you guys even watching the Models, all of them are coming around to genesis in a couple to few days with it getting stronger in the GoM, no way you can say that this thing is dead or destroyed.

Yeh, check out the 0z GFS. Strengthens as it brushes up against the MS coast, then turns due east, then southeast and strengthens as it hits Tampa from the NW!

[JabNOLA]

I see what the models are saying but I simply don't see anything heading to the gulf.

[Hurricaneman]

Hispaniola can destroy tropical systems even if the storm's circulation avoids the island. Had a feeling that would happen.

Are you guys even watching the Models, all of them are coming around to genesis in a couple to few days with it getting stronger in the GoM, no way you can say that this thing is dead or destroyed.

Yeh, check out the 0z GFS. Strengthens as it brushes up against the MS coast, then turns due east, then southeast and strengthens as it hits Tampa from the NW!

It may have not come back as far east but something like the 0zGFS has happened before, Elena 1985

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[jlauderdal]

Every state from rexasto maine wil be hit by the models by tomorrow afternoon..im going into nowcast mode until this settles down

[Hurricaneman]

Every state from rexasto maine wil be hit by the models by tomorrow afternoon..im going into nowcast mode until this settles down

I'm starting to think this could have a similar evolution to Elena 1985 riding Cuba keeping it from strengthening but once it hits the GOM all bets are off

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[AtlanticWind]

Does look like a turning at about 71west and 21 n

[TimeZone]

I would be incredibly shocked if whatever the hell is left of 99L managed to become anything of significance down the line. Not really sure what the models are seeing. There isn't much left, and what is left doesn't appear to be doing anything. Busts happen, especially the past few years.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[HurriGuy]

I would be incredibly shocked if whatever the hell is left of 99L managed to become anything of significance down the line. Not really sure what the models are seeing. There isn't much left, and what is left doesn't appear to be doing anything. Busts happen, especially the past few years.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

It is still a tropical wave moving toward the southeast Gulf. I don't know how many more times that needs to be stressed. Until the convection has all dissipated, this cannot be ignored

[HurriGuy]

To elaborate, the 00z HWRF actually shows almost ZERO rain until it gets to the Florida Strait, but because the energy is still there and it is much more favorable conditions, it starts to strengthen at a fairly good pace.

[psyclone]

Our system isn't doing much tonight... a few random blobs of convection...the best of which is on the south side of Cuba...looks like a good thunderstorm headed for little Cayman

[TimeZone]

I would be incredibly shocked if whatever the hell is left of 99L managed to become anything of significance down the line. Not really sure what the models are seeing. There isn't much left, and what is left doesn't appear to be doing anything. Busts happen, especially the past few years.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

It is still a tropical wave moving toward the southeast Gulf. I don't know how many more times that needs to be stressed. Until the convection has all dissipated, this cannot be ignored

It's sad what the Atlantic Basin has become.

[SeGaBob]

Percentages have stopped falling for now... still 30/60 at 2am.

[galaxy401]

Hispaniola can destroy tropical systems even if the storm's circulation avoids the island. Had a feeling that would happen.

Are you guys even watching the Models, all of them are coming around to genesis in a couple to few days with it getting stronger in the GoM, no way you can say that this thing is dead or destroyed.

Yes I am. I did not say this system was dead at all. I was just posting an observation of the effects by Hispaniola on the system weakening it.

[BobHarlem]

It's so quiet fatigue must have set in, GFS suddenly decided to have4 a landfall in MS, Tampa AND South Carolina? With the way 99L has gone, I can see it driving folks crazy for another week or two.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

An Air Force plane did a surveillance mission at around 30,000 feet Thursday afternoon and evening around and well north of 99L, sampling the environment. My site didn't carry it because the header was different than my site expects.

Sonde data was from 11:09am EDT through 8:38pm EDT:

[MGC]

According to the GFS, we'll be dealing with 99L or whatever for nearly another week for us GOM folks. Most of the convection is now in the Caribbean. Who know what is going to happen. NHC should consider deactivating this invest.....MGC

[shortwave]

Some of the earlier model runs of not having the invest developing till today were tentatively correct. Convection slowly building and for the first time to the north and east of the vorticity. sw shear looks to have relaxed just enough and there only looks like a small dry pocket of air ahead. Gotta feel bad for the pro mets who have had to make predictions on this one. Don't think there's enough aspirin.

[cycloneye]

A weak area of low pressure extending from eastern Cuba northward
to the central Bahamas is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Upper-level winds are expected to remain
unfavorable for significant development during the next couple of
days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
development early next week when the system moves into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
scheduled to investigate this system this morning has been
canceled.

Regardless of development, heavy rains, with the potential to cause
flash floods and mud slides, are likely over Hispaniola today and
over eastern and central Cuba through the weekend. Gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall are likely over portions of the Bahamas, and
will likely spread into parts of South Florida and the Florida Keys
over the weekend. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern
Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[cycloneye]

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
scheduled to investigate this system this morning has been
canceled.