ATL: HERMINE - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3121 Postby HurriGuy » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:57 pm

Blinhart wrote:
supercane wrote:
Alyono wrote:UKMET stronger

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.08.2016 25.5N 82.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2016 25.8N 83.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2016 26.0N 85.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2016 26.0N 85.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2016 26.3N 86.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.08.2016 26.6N 86.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.09.2016 27.0N 86.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


WTNT82 EGRR 260418

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 26.08.2016

<snip to exclude Gaston, Lester, and other storms>

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 25.3N 81.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.08.2016 72 25.5N 82.5W 1007 24
1200UTC 29.08.2016 84 25.8N 83.6W 1006 29
0000UTC 30.08.2016 96 26.0N 85.1W 1003 29
1200UTC 30.08.2016 108 26.0N 85.8W 1000 37
0000UTC 31.08.2016 120 26.3N 86.2W 993 41
1200UTC 31.08.2016 132 26.6N 86.5W 984 59
0000UTC 01.09.2016 144 27.0N 86.3W 975 62


Wouldn't normally a storm with a pressure of 975 be a little bit stronger than 62 Kts?


Issac 2012
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3122 Postby Blinhart » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:58 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:I don't want to imagine 99L still being in the Gulf by NEXT Sunday lol. Probably won't see that next run but the increase in vorticity is notable. Very interested to see the 00z Euro...I assume it received data from the dropsondes as well?


Yeah very scary if this system stays in the GoM for over a week, who knows what it could grow into and where it would end up and what the tides would be like all around the Gulf.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3123 Postby HurriGuy » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:59 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
supercane wrote:
WTNT82 EGRR 260418

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 26.08.2016

<snip to exclude Gaston, Lester, and other storms>

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 25.3N 81.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.08.2016 72 25.5N 82.5W 1007 24
1200UTC 29.08.2016 84 25.8N 83.6W 1006 29
0000UTC 30.08.2016 96 26.0N 85.1W 1003 29
1200UTC 30.08.2016 108 26.0N 85.8W 1000 37
0000UTC 31.08.2016 120 26.3N 86.2W 993 41
1200UTC 31.08.2016 132 26.6N 86.5W 984 59
0000UTC 01.09.2016 144 27.0N 86.3W 975 62


Wouldn't normally a storm with a pressure of 975 be a little bit stronger than 62 Kts?


Not all the time. Isaac was 965mb with only 80mph sustained winds because of it's large size.


South Louisiana people think alike :lol: :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3124 Postby Fego » Fri Aug 26, 2016 12:01 am

Also a SC hit by Hermine, imo, allow future Ian to threath the EC and Bermudas.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3125 Postby SeGaBob » Fri Aug 26, 2016 12:13 am

I wasn't going to stay up for the Euro but now I'm tempted.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3126 Postby STRiZZY » Fri Aug 26, 2016 12:14 am

Def staying up for the Euro. :P
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3127 Postby HurriGuy » Fri Aug 26, 2016 12:18 am

Looks like HWRF is about to fire off another bomb on the Gulf at hour 72
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3128 Postby jason1912 » Fri Aug 26, 2016 12:30 am

HWRF more East too.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3129 Postby STRiZZY » Fri Aug 26, 2016 12:38 am

HWRF HR105

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3130 Postby HurriGuy » Fri Aug 26, 2016 12:41 am

The HWRF illustrates my concern. Gets the energy to the Florida Strait with almost zero precip. Favorable conditions start to occur tucked under the upper high and boom....rapid intensification.

I find it hard to believe it will get that strong, but something of decent strength could begin to form.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3131 Postby STRiZZY » Fri Aug 26, 2016 12:44 am

Euro Initialized
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3132 Postby HurriGuy » Fri Aug 26, 2016 12:50 am

Image

HWRF at Friday 06z...nothing at all

Image

Later that night at Saturday 00z....nada

Image

even that morning at Saturday at 12z

Image

but Saturday evening in favorable conditions, whoa...THUNDERSTORMS

Image

and then from here on out it's a nuclear bomb. Point is...

LOOKS CAN BE DECEIVING.

LETS KEEP MONITORING
Last edited by HurriGuy on Fri Aug 26, 2016 12:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3133 Postby STRiZZY » Fri Aug 26, 2016 12:53 am

HWRF 126HR


Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3134 Postby ronyan » Fri Aug 26, 2016 12:56 am

:uarrow: Let's hope the Euro disagrees with that solution. It looks like a cat 4 headed NW.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3135 Postby STRiZZY » Fri Aug 26, 2016 12:57 am

EURO 24HR

Image

Weaker.
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stormwise

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3136 Postby stormwise » Fri Aug 26, 2016 12:58 am

I see alot tweets from some very respected Pro Mets they usually say the HWRF is not the most reliable model.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3137 Postby STRiZZY » Fri Aug 26, 2016 12:59 am

stormwise wrote:I see alot tweets from some very respected Pro Mets they usually say the HWRF is not the most reliable model.


It's not. Posted that pic FWIW 8-)
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SeGaBob

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3138 Postby SeGaBob » Fri Aug 26, 2016 1:01 am

Looks similar to 12z through 48 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3139 Postby HurriGuy » Fri Aug 26, 2016 1:01 am

I wouldn't use HWRF for intensity. It is just another tool to help decipher the atmospheric patterns
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3140 Postby STRiZZY » Fri Aug 26, 2016 1:03 am

Euro weaker through 48hrs as well. Lets see what it does around that FL straights/SE GOM.
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