ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[WeatherEmperor]

Yeah the mid-level and low level center will become re-coupled very soon. Watch for the low level center north of the Bahamas to get tucked under the mid-level center farther south.

It has also slowed down considerably which will give me an easier time to keep the convection

Yea, it has slowed a good bit which should help with organizing.

Ok I just want to make sure I have this right. Will the low level center to the north move down to the mid level center down south...or will the mid level center move north to stack over the low center to the north?

[TropicalSailor]

This thing has outlasted everyone. I'm on board with it creeping into the GOM and building. There's no way this story ends north of Cuba after all this. The question is what do we get when it builds and where.

[Florida1118]

Well...

Tampa Bay Weather Service seems pretty (maybe overly) confident about this.

Impacts wouldn't come until after the weekend; so there's nothing for them not to be confident about. It's still weather as usual in the mean time.

[Aric Dunn]

much more pronounced northerly and westerly inflow with sustaining convection.

sorry for the crudeness of the drawing didn't have much time.

centered roughly at 21.76° N 74.26° W

[chris_fit]

Well...

Tampa Bay Weather Service seems pretty (maybe overly) confident about this.

Impacts wouldn't come until after the weekend; so there's nothing for them not to be confident about. It's still weather as usual in the mean time.

True - although SW FL would see some impacts on Sunday most likely

['CaneFreak]

Actually I think I might have had that backwards. You are correct. As the towers go up and latent heat is released the low level PV Anomaly will warm the mid-levels above and this will pull the mid-level PV anomaly into it.

Yeah the mid-level and low level center will become re-coupled very soon. Watch for the low level center north of the Bahamas to get tucked under the mid-level center farther south.

Ok I just want to make sure I have this right. Will the low level center to the north move down to the mid level center down south...or will the mid level center move north to stack over the low center to the north?

[WeatherEmperor]

much more pronounced northerly and westerly inflow with sustaining convection.

sorry for the crudeness of the drawing didn't have much time.

centered roughly at 21.76° N 74.26° W

Aric are you sure that's where the center appears to be? I see more rotation near 23N/73.8W

[cycloneye]

That Aric position is almost near the 12z Best Track that I posted earlier.

[MississippiWx]

much more pronounced northerly and westerly inflow with sustaining convection.

sorry for the crudeness of the drawing didn't have much time.

centered roughly at 21.76° N 74.26° W
[img ]https://s13.postimg.io/i3vpgeup3/GOES13002016239_WXq_Ugv.jpg[/img]

Aric are you sure that's where the center appears to be? I see more rotation near 23N/73.8W

Broad area of spin. I can see spin in the place he circled and the one you mentioned. The positive for 99L is that it has convection associated with the spin now. Shear is only going to lessen from here on out. We will see if something can consolidate.

[Aric Dunn]

much more pronounced northerly and westerly inflow with sustaining convection.

sorry for the crudeness of the drawing didn't have much time.

centered roughly at 21.76° N 74.26° W
[img ]https://s13.postimg.io/i3vpgeup3/GOES13002016239_WXq_Ugv.jpg[/img]

Aric are you sure that's where the center appears to be? I see more rotation near 23N/73.8W

its elongated slightly north to south but looking at the low level CU clouds and extrapolating the arc. yeah its with in the circle. does not mean it wont migrate and or shift around as it is just getting organized and thats normal. but that general area over the next few hours should reveal itself more.

[Aric Dunn]

latest image showing that ball of convection growing and deepening. lets see if it can maintain.. from the looks of though its on its way.

[tgenius]

Aric at this point for SFL it will probably be just a rainmaker right, or a small TS, if at all?

[Blown Away]

latest image showing that ball of convection growing and deepening. lets see if it can maintain.. from the looks of though its on its way.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12
What's that feature to the N of your suspect area?

[HurriGuy]

There is still some vorticity at the mid-levels back by Hispaniola, but it looks like it is on it's last breath

[HurriGuy]

This is a very broad circulation probably multiple areas that can trick the eye.

[Aric Dunn]

latest image showing that ball of convection growing and deepening. lets see if it can maintain.. from the looks of though its on its way.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12
What's that feature to the N of your suspect area?

little eddy im sure we are going to get multiple vorts for while given the shear. just always focus on where the convection/ convergence is for a dominate circ.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric at this point for SFL it will probably be just a rainmaker right, or a small TS, if at all?

TS at best right now.but always just watch its the tropics. if it consolidates and the shear drops like is forecast then you never know. it has time but will it get the right environment is the question still.

[tropicwatch]

850mb, 700mb and 500mb vorticity are nearly stacked but the 200mb vorticity is a little north as of 0700 central time.

[windnrain]

Is it just me or does it seem like convection is coming back?

[deltadog03]

Hell, I would argue this is the best its looked in a few days. Lets see if the convection can hold and grow...Shear is going to go down in a hurry today. *forecasted*