ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[mobilebay]

ULL is developing to the east of Bahamas, not far from 99L. Doubt the shear starts to relax any time soon. I doubt the naked spin is going to do much. Dry air and shear still. Might do something in the Gulf....MGC

I usually Agree with you MGC. However, this time you can clearly see by recent satellite images that the upper level SW wind sheer has already decreased some. Clouds are no longer getting ripped off to the NE like earlier. IMHO

[Evil Jeremy]

nhc lowered this thing down to 30% for development. From 80% to 30%. It's dead, Jim. No low level low. GFS out schooled the euro intensity wise.

You're cooking the books to make your case (mixing short term and long term development chances)...that sort of stuff won't fly in here. the long term odds were lowered from 80% to 60%...not 30%.

Sir, I was referring to short term chances.

The 48 hour chance was never close to 80

[jhpigott]

ULL is developing to the east of Bahamas, not far from 99L. Doubt the shear starts to relax any time soon. I doubt the naked spin is going to do much. Dry air and shear still. Might do something in the Gulf....MGC

If convection can persist, it will fight off the weak upper level cyclonic flow. If convection is not able to persist, the upper level cyclonic flow will strengthen and continue the shear in the area. Right now, convection is winning. Must persist, though.

Speaking of convection persisting - this is the 1st time in days 99L has been able to fire any semblance of persistent organized convection during the daytime

[GeneratorPower]

Man, I wish the rapid scan was still up and running from yesterday.

[Portastorm]

I am going to post this and then go back to lurking as I have nothing of substance to add to the discussion. I just wanted to thank all the Mods and Pro-Mets specifically for sharing their insights and keeping this discussion topic and the corresponding Models thread pretty much on track. As someone who is honestly nervous and anxious during times like this when I feel there is even a chance of a threat it is truly helpful to have some insight and discussion to turn to. Knowledge is comforting and can take the edge off considerably. I have weathered many storms and felt the pain of loss of life of family and friends due to storm surge and also lost my home, livelihood and all belongings to the monsters Hurricanes can become and the deep misery they can bring. I take all threats seriously and would rather be prepared and not have a situation develop than to be caught unprepared and possibly putting myself and loved ones at any kind of risk. So, thanks again to all who add valuable analysis, keep the conversations somewhat focused, and even throw in the occasional LOL moment. I will be following these threads until this thing is history, one way or another.

Glad to have you here and feel free whenever to chime in with your own analysis, comments, or questions. As you have already witnessed, we have a lot of passionate weather enthusiasts here and tropical weather is always a big area of focus.

[Siker]

Man, I wish the rapid scan was still up and running from yesterday.

Your wish is my command.

https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/ind ... height=550

[GeneratorPower]

Man, I wish the rapid scan was still up and running from yesterday.

Your wish is my command.

https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/ind ... height=550

Awesome, thank you.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Huge trend back east in the models at 12z and the GFS is now showing this. May not get in the Gulf of Mexico.

[StormHunter72]

ULL is developing to the east of Bahamas, not far from 99L. Doubt the shear starts to relax any time soon. I doubt the naked spin is going to do much. Dry air and shear still. Might do something in the Gulf....MGC

If convection can persist, it will fight off the weak upper level cyclonic flow. If convection is not able to persist, the upper level cyclonic flow will strengthen and continue the shear in the area. Right now, convection is winning. Must persist, though.

Speaking of convection persisting - this is the 1st time in days 99L has been able to fire any semblance of persistent organized convection during the daytime

Interesting if this continues game on.

[stormlover2013]

depends on how weak the system is, until that ridge breaks its getting in the gulf, ridge hasn't broke yet and hasn't all summer......only time will tell

[JaxGator]

Huge trend back east in the models at 12z and the GFS is now showing this. May not get in the Gulf of Mexico.

Maybe and maybe not. A huge majority of them still have 99L going to the Gulf.

[centuryv58]

depends on how weak the system is, until that ridge breaks its getting in the gulf, ridge hasn't broke yet and hasn't all summer......only time will tell

But there is one guy who swears we have a permanent trough off the east coast. Can't remember his name though

[stormlover2013]

only time will tell, until we have a true center model runs don't matter they just cause stress and sleepless hours lol

[RL3AO]

I love memes like everyone else, but please leave them to Twitter and Facebook. We don't want these threads getting taken over by memes.

[caneman]

That's a weak upper low. Don't see it having much,affect and in fact may be aiding right now. In my opinion only.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like from latest images the llc is beginning to organize under the deep convection. signs of westerly inflow and even a curved band starting to take shape.. by the time recon get there it should be well established.

[HurriGuy]

I am seeing some curved banding features to the north on the rapid scan

[N2FSU]

Huge trend back east in the models at 12z and the GFS is now showing this. May not get in the Gulf of Mexico.

12z GFS has it well into the Gulf.
+102hr

[MississippiWx]

looks like from latest images the llc is beginning to organize under the deep convection. signs of westerly inflow and even a curved band starting to take shape.. by the time recon get there it should be well established.

This.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Huge trend back east in the models at 12z and the GFS is now showing this. May not get in the Gulf of Mexico.

12z GFS has it well into the Gulf.
+102hr

I was simply saying if it keeps trending east it will not make it in the Gulf of Mexico unless it is a brief time period which would be a very good thing. In the end nature will do what it wants.