ATL: HERMINE - Models

['CaneFreak]

Use these steering maps. Check your pressure levels at the top. The stronger the system, the higher in the atmosphere the storm extends so it will go with the upper level flow vs. the lower level flow when it is a weaker system and more shallow.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm6&zoom=&time=

Just trying to get a grasp, can someone explain why if its stronger it will go further west but weaker will go north? I thought it was the opposite?

[tolakram]

GFS 12Z animation. No significant development.

[BucMan2]

Mark- Since the models did not anticipate this flaring up today is it possible that they don't have the data to show a stronger storm so
until recon gets to the system you would take these modelswith a grain of salt?

[chris_fit]

The latest HRWF appears to be 'following' the eddy, strengthening it - and sending it to Cuba through ~40 hours

[tolakram]

Mark- Since the models did not anticipate this flaring up today is it possible that they don't have the data to show a stronger storm so
until recon gets to the system you would take these modelswith a grain of salt?

I have no idea, I'm not a met nor do I have anything other than amateur experience looking at models. This is one reason I always scratch my head when I see so many folks predicting what will happen.

[SFLcane]

HWRF seems to show an intensifying TS heading generally towards the wnw-nw to keys and florida.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

GFS 12Z animation. No significant development.

[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/1oLfcp4.gif[/img]

Looks like in the last frame it Re-develops in the atlantic.

[centuryv58]

GFS 12Z animation. No significant development.

[img ]http://i.imgur.com/1oLfcp4.gif[/img]

Looks like in the last frame it Re-develops in the atlantic.

Last night on the GFS it was stronger and bounced off Mobile Bay area before heading back across FL. Its more east overall on this run.

[SFLcane]

hmmm...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 99L_11.png

[KWT]

HWRF is looking interesting BUT it is a good deal further east than the other run, my gut is on this run it rides closer to the Florida coast than the 06z run.

[SFLcane]

Yea KWT still bit early to right this one out in SFL

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 99L_23.png

[KWT]

Pulling away from Florida by 78hrs and getting stronger.

Pretty much the system bobbles around for the first 48hrs of the run and then pulls itself together as it heads into the gulf.

[BigB0882]

How does the ridge look in these latest model runs? Are we seeing an east shift because it is breaking down or moving east? That always worries me if it is more than 3-4 days out.

[tolakram]

PLEASE READ

We have a rule, put in place 2 years ago, the direct hotlinking to images is not allowed. If you don't have time to copy to an image site first then just post the link to the image, do not use the IMG tags. Thanks.

[Siker]

Latest HWRF:

[ronjon]

Holy Smokes! is that 939 mb on the HWRF?

[Wx_Warrior]

euro 12z 72H

[Blow_Hard]

Holy Smokes! is that 939 mb on the HWRF?

That would be a great name for HWRF...from now on I'm going to refer to it as "Holy Smokes" because it is the one Model that definitely seems to always be smoking something.

[Wx_Warrior]

Euro 96H

[Wx_Warrior]

euro 120H