ATL: HERMINE - Models

[StormHunter72]

HWRF always over does it....

[BigB0882]

I see a H pressure on the Euro right around TN. Instead of going around it to the west, it go right on up and around the eastern edge. Is that normal? What is pulling it NE? Is it the ULL so many models see? Wouldn't that mean horrible shear as it is going directly against the flow of the H pressure?

[Stormcenter]

Is it just me or are these model runs becoming more and more comical? I mean I honestly don't think they have a clue and we shouldn't put any weight on them at all, even the GFS and EURO. Just my opinion.

[stormlover2013]

not till we have a center, they will keep struggling and being laughable

[stormlover2013]

Go look at the JMA run that is laughable also..

[ROCK]

not till we have a center, they will keep struggling and being laughable

they are all over the place...

[ROCK]

12Z NAVGEM has this coming into the GOM and splitting off a piece of energy into WGOM then the other piece going into FL as a TS...

12ZGFDL similar Nogaps

12Z CMC destroys Galveston

12Z UKMET similar to CMC

12Z NAM bounces it off FL into EGOM at 84hr...

[ROCK]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

at least the 18Z BAM runs are consistent...

[Dean4Storms]

Well the GFS and ECM are still fairly close in agreement with doing very little with 99L and mostly dumping rain on the FL Peninsula. That is a good sign!

[SeGaBob]

18z looks a bit further west

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/99L_tracks_18z.png

[stormlover2013]

lets be honest, models are worthless right now...haven't seen it like this in a long time, strong storm will go more west, weak weak storm will make the turn.........GFS and EURO has weak storm

[Steve]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/hurricane%20model%20plots

at least the 18Z BAM runs are consistent...

They are usually terrible up until the end when they fall in line with everything but Clipper (and I know it's an old time thing, maybe even better than blind skill but it needs to be put out to pasture). Emeril would be proud of the Bams.

Also regarding the models, usually they offer some hints, and maybe after the fact we can see where hints were. But I'll be damned if I have a clue what 99L is going to do. Further, outside of listing every possibility, I don't even have a reasonable guess. Each time over the last few days that a legit model seemed to be keying in on a reasonable solution, it was diverse 6 or 12 hours later. Crazy.

[Portastorm]

Good ol' Steve. Can always count on you for some refreshing honesty.

You stand alone, however, on a forum full of people who are convinced that:

1) The models are clueless; or
2) The models have 99L nailed down; and/or
3) They noticed that one thing about an obscure model run which nobody else noticed and now they're going to tell everyone here how this whole storm plays out (never mind the fact that professional meteorologists who live and breath tropical meteorology have all been saying this system is far from being definitive).

[Frank P]

Steve. I think you had the post of the day when you said this was the "best INVEST ever" ... I agree... the NHC should consider retiring the number 99 too.. I still think it is strong tropical wave which today has been it's best performance over the past 2 or 3... and as long as it continues to fire off convection, shows some kind of broad circulation, can manage to fight the shear monster, which has been weakening, we continue to have a player on the field... no, I don't think this thing is done by any means...

[ROCK]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/hurricane%20model%20plots

at least the 18Z BAM runs are consistent...

They are usually terrible up until the end when they fall in line with everything but Clipper (and I know it's an old time thing, maybe even better than blind skill but it needs to be put out to pasture). Emeril would be proud of the Bams.

Also regarding the models, usually they offer some hints, and maybe after the fact we can see where hints were. But I'll be damned if I have a clue what 99L is going to do. Further, outside of listing every possibility, I don't even have a reasonable guess. Each time over the last few days that a legit model seemed to be keying in on a reasonable solution, it was diverse 6 or 12 hours later. Crazy.

now Steve dont be hating on my BAMMs.... yes I know they offer no credence what so ever....its like someone calling the EXTRAP a model... just seeing who would catch it...

[Bocadude85]

18Z NAM a little stronger and further east.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=us&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2016082618&fh=63&xpos=0&ypos=259

[SouthFLTropics]

18Z NAM a little stronger and further east.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=us&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2016082618&fh=63&xpos=0&ypos=259

Looks like a slow moving tropical storm up the east side of the state. I can see how that might be reasonable. Many tropical storms have caused a lot of havoc around here before. Some of the flooding from Fay was epic. In addition, it only continues to fuel the environmental nightmare in the St. Lucie River with much larger discharges from Lake Okeechobee. The algae blooms will be out of control.

[STRiZZY]

The GFS 18z has a stronger vorticity signature 42hrs out over the Texas system than it does with 99L.

[benh316]

The GFS 18z has a stronger vorticity signature 42hrs out over the Texas system than it does with 99L.

Don't put too much reliance on vorticity right now. Don't get me wrong - it's a huge indicator for development, but the entire gulf and Caribbean is saturated and hot.. Ripe for convection and general air motion.

[Alyono]

HWRF has dropped the idea of a strong hurricane. It now has a weak TS moving well west of the previous forecast