ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
benh316

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2941 Postby benh316 » Fri Aug 26, 2016 5:29 pm

Being a "tropical wave" to these forums myself, I can safely say never count us out on surprising ya ;)

With that said, I feel as if too many folks place reliance on modeling and not enough on traditional meteorology. Let's face it - the tropics and especially the Caribbean has suddenly become both saturated and a breeding ground for tropical waves and sudden convection. Anything CAN and WILL happen.

So throw out those models and get ready for a wild ride
0 likes   

User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3396
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2942 Postby tropicwatch » Fri Aug 26, 2016 5:32 pm

Took a nap and it is in the basically same area. Has it gone stationary basically as it gets it act together?
0 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2943 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 26, 2016 5:32 pm

I thought the P-3 was supposed to take off at 18z.. in the notes of TPOD
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2776
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2944 Postby Frank P » Fri Aug 26, 2016 5:36 pm

Well from what I can tell from the vis and IR rapid scans, it still appear to be moving at a steadily WNW motion... not sure of speed...
0 likes   

ronyan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 791
Age: 39
Joined: Tue Sep 09, 2008 5:46 pm
Location: Lake Jackson, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2945 Postby ronyan » Fri Aug 26, 2016 5:38 pm

500 mb vorticity is stronger with the disturbance off the coast of TX.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4239
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2946 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Aug 26, 2016 5:39 pm

floridasun78 wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:I guess they have a big travel budget this year:

mikeseidel1 min
Beautiful day on South Beach as we keep an eye on #99L. We're live from the @RustyPelicanFL in Key Biscayne https://t.co/ewYmn7DC6k

he here pay vacation by the weather ch


He better spray on some Off to keep the Zika away!!!
1 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24

User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2990
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2947 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Aug 26, 2016 5:40 pm

0 likes   

poof121
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 316
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2007 11:33 am
Location: Laurel, MD

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2948 Postby poof121 » Fri Aug 26, 2016 5:43 pm

Image

Nice hot towers popping up...
1 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2949 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 26, 2016 5:44 pm

latest microwave right as the recent convection first begin.

looking pretty good the low levels still need some time but appears its on it way.

Image
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2950 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 26, 2016 5:46 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:18Z HWRF has a tropical storm in 18 hours..strengthens a little more at 21 hours.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=99L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016082618&fh=21&xpos=0&ypos=290


technically it initialized it as a depression :P
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

HurriGuy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 734
Joined: Thu Aug 15, 2013 8:43 pm
Location: Prairieville, LA

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2951 Postby HurriGuy » Fri Aug 26, 2016 5:49 pm

In terms of the survival of this system, this is almost perfect timing. That tower of convection is still expanding on rapid-scan IR and the storms over Cuba and the complex just southeast of it are all waning leaving most of the energy to the low level circulation.

Next 6 hours could be interesting. Even if the current tower fades, I wouldn't be surprised to see another.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4047
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2952 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Aug 26, 2016 5:49 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:18Z HWRF has a tropical storm in 18 hours..strengthens a little more at 21 hours.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=99L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016082618&fh=21&xpos=0&ypos=290


technically it initialized it as a depression :P


Lol, good game HWRF! We are only 6 hours away from DMAX and in good timing, it's getting its act together.
1 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

SunnyThoughts
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2263
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
Location: Pensacola, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2953 Postby SunnyThoughts » Fri Aug 26, 2016 5:54 pm

Haven't seen a sat pic since 8 am this morning before work. I gotta say it looks much better for sure... Do we actually have some kind of recon going in tonight or are we going to have to wait until tomorrow?
0 likes   

SeGaBob

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2954 Postby SeGaBob » Fri Aug 26, 2016 5:54 pm

I'm guessing NHC won't raise the chances at 8pm even though it looks better than earlier.
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2955 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 26, 2016 5:55 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:Haven't seen a sat pic since 8 am this morning before work. I gotta say it looks much better for sure... Do we actually have some kind of recon going in tonight or are we going to have to wait until tomorrow?


Idk been trying to figure it out. TPOD says one should have taken off at 20Z, and 18 z .. who knows.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15455
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2956 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 26, 2016 5:55 pm

Last vis sat loop before sunset, ML vorticity is really trying to catch up to the low level vorticity.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5331
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2957 Postby Nimbus » Fri Aug 26, 2016 5:58 pm

I didn't think those islands were high enough to cause lift?, but I guess it doesn't take much near Dmax.
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2958 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Aug 26, 2016 6:00 pm

NDG wrote:Last vis sat loop before sunset, ML vorticity is really trying to catch up to the low level vorticity.



Yeah, it is trying its best to stack up vertically NDG. Shear obviously still there, but it looks like the shear is trying to slacken as time progresses little by little.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
tarheelprogrammer
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1793
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:25 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC area (Garner, NC)

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2959 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Fri Aug 26, 2016 6:04 pm

HWRF now much weaker. You know the basin is really bad off for TC development when storms have better environments in the north central part of the basin than in classic locations for development. Models are almost now all in agreement on this being either really weak or nothing at all. Also, strange how shear seems to magically follow storms in recent years would like to know the odds of that happening.
Last edited by tarheelprogrammer on Fri Aug 26, 2016 6:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes   
My posts are not official forecasts. They are just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2858
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2960 Postby supercane » Fri Aug 26, 2016 6:04 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
SunnyThoughts wrote:Haven't seen a sat pic since 8 am this morning before work. I gotta say it looks much better for sure... Do we actually have some kind of recon going in tonight or are we going to have to wait until tomorrow?

Idk been trying to figure it out. TPOD says one should have taken off at 20Z, and 18 z .. who knows.


 https://twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA/status/769300431675625473


1 likes   


Return to “2016”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests