Tropical Wave about to emerge West Africa (Is Invest 92L)

[cycloneye]

This wave is the one the models develop after it emerges Africa on August 30-31.Let's see how it evolves down the road.





http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2016/P25L.html

[cycloneye]

06z GFS has a bonifide Hurricane close to Bermuda but is long range so track can change a lot after 240 hours.The ECMWF and UKMET models also develop.

[Siker]

It's incredible how far west some GFS and Euro ensembles take this despite the latitude it will come off at. Some go all the way into the Gulf.

[WeatherEmperor]

Fwiw, the 12z Gfs has a wave coming off Africa at 120 and moves it almost due west dor days and days and ends up a few hundred miles off the SE coast lol at 384hr. Dont shoot the messenger lol






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[cycloneye]

12z Euro has the same track as GFS but a weaker version.

[LarryWx]

As Luis just posted, the 12Z Euro has this as a TD or weak TS moving almost due west near 15 mph along 19N and reaching near 55W on day 10. Here's the 10 day map of North America:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... mer_11.png

This map shows rather stable west Atlantic ridging to its north and NW. This ridging looks stable as opposed to transient to me because of the near stationary very strong (600+ dm) 500 mb ridge centered near 40N, 150W (about halfway between Alaska and Hawaii). This is leading to rather stable troughing in the Rockies and ridging along the CONUS east coast eastward into the Atlantic. IF this were to end up being an accurate prog for day 10, then imo this TC would likely threaten the CONUS east coast ~5-7 days later or ~15-17 days from now or ~9/10-12 fwiw.

So, if I were a betting man, I'd say look out for around 9/10-2 for what is now Pouch 25L to possibly get close to the CONUS east coast.

[PTrackerLA]

The latest Euro ensembles continue to insist on this being a threat to the US East coast by the second week in September. Something to keep an eye on it's been many years since we've had a long tracker like that.

[LarryWx]

The latest Euro ensembles continue to insist on this being a threat to the US East coast by the second week in September. Something to keep an eye on it's been many years since we've had a long tracker like that.

The last long tracking H that made it to 75W was way back in 2010: Earl

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

The last time we went 6+ years without a longtracking H was way back in the1970's.

[cycloneye]

Is very high in latitude emerging West Africa on August 31rst in the 18z GFS.Let's see how far west it goes on this run.

[CrazyC83]

Makes me wonder if the NHC will put it in the TWO at 8 pm?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Hmmm models depict quite the monster. I'm skeptical however because of two possible key factors -

1.) The high latitude which the system emerges from Africa.

2.) I thought shear was projected to be a big negative for develop, along with a potential major SAL outbreak, during the next two weeks? Please correct me if I'm wrong.

If so could this system realistically buck those trends and survive to threaten mainland North America? We shall see I guess.

[cycloneye]

Continues mainly west while it gains strength.

[cycloneye]

Now moves WNW NNE of PR and continues to get stronger.

[cycloneye]

Run ends around 200 miles ESE of Cape Cod.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I assume by then it is weakening. How strong/deep a peak intensity does it reach on this model run?

[cycloneye]

I assume by then it is weakening. How strong/deep a peak intensity does it reach on this model run?

Weakening at the end of run.Lowest pressure was 979 mbs.

[KWT]

ECM runs this westward till 240hrs and comes off Africa a little south.

CMC hits E.Caribbean with this so there must be some strong high pressure aloft to keep it going that far west.

[cycloneye]

A little surprised NHC didn't mentioned this area that emerges West Africa on day 5.

[LarryWx]

A little surprised NHC didn't mentioned this area that emerges West Africa on day 5.

Agreed as model consensus has this leaving Africa around 8/30.

[abajan]

Makes me wonder if the NHC will put it in the TWO at 8 pm?

Nope. But clear out of the blue, something else popped up! (That's late August for ya )