ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

Last vis sat loop before sunset, ML vorticity is really trying to catch up to the low level vorticity.

[http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/ndgarcia132/160826224815_an_zpsrqqypxb9.gif[/img]

This might sound like a dumb question, but.....

We are due west of Lake Okeechobee, but not all the way to the coast. We have had some crazy weather all afternoon, and it keeps getting crazier. Almost like squalls...no rain, then rain - hard rain, and thunder and lightning. Then it dries up....you get it.

Can this be - I don't know if its' called "feeder bands" since this isn't really a storm yet - but is it possible, this crazy weather is possibly related to the storm that doesn't wanna be? I mean, I deliberately included the above clip, cause it seems to show the "bands" of weather I am referring to....going across the center of FL, at the very top of the pic.

What do you all think?

Theres some strong easterly flow (winds from the east at low levels) in an unstable environment that are helping develop the storms across Florida for the next few days. It's not directly related to the tropical wave, but the wave is helping create the environment to support storms. Or maybe the environment is helping the wave. Chicken or the egg.

[SapphireSea]

Last vis sat loop before sunset, ML vorticity is really trying to catch up to the low level vorticity.

This might sound like a dumb question, but.....

We are due west of Lake Okeechobee, but not all the way to the coast. We have had some crazy weather all afternoon, and it keeps getting crazier. Almost like squalls...no rain, then rain - hard rain, and thunder and lightning. Then it dries up....you get it.

Can this be - I don't know if its' called "feeder bands" since this isn't really a storm yet - but is it possible, this crazy weather is possibly related to the storm that doesn't wanna be? I mean, I deliberately included the above clip, cause it seems to show the "bands" of weather I am referring to....going across the center of FL, at the very top of the pic.

What do you all think?

Sounds like normal Florida diurnal weather. Mind you the convergence is a bit stronger than normal. No bands or squalls from this system here.

[Michele B]

Last vis sat loop before sunset, ML vorticity is really trying to catch up to the low level vorticity.

[http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/ndgarcia132/160826224815_an_zpsrqqypxb9.gif[/img]

This might sound like a dumb question, but.....

We are due west of Lake Okeechobee, but not all the way to the coast. We have had some crazy weather all afternoon, and it keeps getting crazier. Almost like squalls...no rain, then rain - hard rain, and thunder and lightning. Then it dries up....you get it.

Can this be - I don't know if its' called "feeder bands" since this isn't really a storm yet - but is it possible, this crazy weather is possibly related to the storm that doesn't wanna be? I mean, I deliberately included the above clip, cause it seems to show the "bands" of weather I am referring to....going across the center of FL, at the very top of the pic.

What do you all think?

Theres some strong easterly flow (winds from the east at low levels) in an unstable environment that are helping develop the storms across Florida for the next few days. It's not directly related to the tropical wave, but the wave is helping create the environment to support storms. Or maybe the environment is helping the wave. Chicken or the egg.

Thanks for explaining it, RL.

I remember, when i was a kid, it seemed like if a really bad storm was coming, it usually followed a LOT of rain. I mean a TON! Probably NOT related, but in my mind, I always thought - "TERRIBLE time for a hurricane. We've just had buckets of rain for like 2 days...."

Anyway, I actually WAS thinking to myself today, "Our ditches are all dried up from all the rain we've been getting...so if there were going to be a rainmaker, at least the water would have plenty of places to go...."

And now it starts!

I expect this wet weather isn't going away for several days now.....all related to this system.

[Michele B]

Last vis sat loop before sunset, ML vorticity is really trying to catch up to the low level vorticity.

This might sound like a dumb question, but.....

We are due west of Lake Okeechobee, but not all the way to the coast. We have had some crazy weather all afternoon, and it keeps getting crazier. Almost like squalls...no rain, then rain - hard rain, and thunder and lightning. Then it dries up....you get it.

Can this be - I don't know if its' called "feeder bands" since this isn't really a storm yet - but is it possible, this crazy weather is possibly related to the storm that doesn't wanna be? I mean, I deliberately included the above clip, cause it seems to show the "bands" of weather I am referring to....going across the center of FL, at the very top of the pic.

What do you all think?

Sounds like normal Florida diurnal weather. Mind you the convergence is a bit stronger than normal. No bands or squalls from this system here.

No, true, not squalls in the normal sense. But the way this weather has been today is weird. I mean, it keeps starting and stopping raining.....THAT's not normal "summer build-up" of storms....

[CrazyC83]

300+ pages (combined on all pages) for an Invest has to be a record.

[GCANE]

TCFA

[SeGaBob]

The forecaster was why the chances got lowered...

[SEASON_CANCELED]

99L looks better than it ever has. Gotta disagree witht nix here but they may know something I dont

[SEASON_CANCELED]

300+ pages (combined on all pages) for an Invest has to be a record.

This reminds me of Chris 2006..

[Bailey1777]

Models juiced everybody up for action several days ago, and now we just hang on...that's the tropics for ya.

[Hammy]

300+ pages (combined on all pages) for an Invest has to be a record.

This reminds me of Chris 2006..

More like a repeat of Erika last year--the most reliable model essentially blew it and had us all fooled.

[Bocadude85]

TCFA

Why would they lower development chances and then issue a TCFA?

[AJC3]

TCFA

Why would they lower development chances and then issue a TCFA?

TCFA's are issued by the JTWC, not NHC. Aside from that, the TCFA issued looks like it was done so 34 hours ago (around 1400Z on the 25th).

[TheStormExpert]

What is a TCFA?

[LSU2001]

If they issued a TCFA after lowering chances then the NHC is as nutty as the models have been LOL

EDIT: I stand corrected not the NHC boy am I out of practice lol
TIm

[AJC3]

What is a TCFA?

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_ ... tion_Alert

[LSU2001]

What is a TCFA?

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

BTW any link to a TCFA for 99L I can't find any such animal.
Tim

[La Sirena]

What is a TCFA?

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_ ... tion_Alert

I'm still learning...why would the Navy put out this notice? Especially, if NHC Has dropped 99L's odds...

[AJC3]

What is a TCFA?

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

BTW any link to a TCFA for 99L I can't find any such animal.
Tim

The last graphic that I saw was a TCFA issued at 1400Z on Thursday the 25th, which would make it 34 hours ago.

[AJC3]

What is a TCFA?

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_ ... tion_Alert

I'm still learning...why would the Navy put out this notice? Especially, if NHC Has dropped 99L's odds...

I think the TCFA that was issued was sent out almost a day and a half ago.