ATL: HERMINE - Models

[Torgo]

HWRF has dropped the idea of a strong hurricane. It now has a weak TS moving well west of the previous forecast

It actually starts rapidly intensifying as it recurves back to Florida and is at 979 MB at the end of the run.

[HurricaneBelle]

HWRF has dropped the idea of a strong hurricane. It now has a weak TS moving well west of the previous forecast

It actually starts rapidly intensifying as it recurves back to Florida and is at 979 MB at the end of the run.

After taking a Carnival Cruise ride of the SE Gulf for three days.

[stormwise]

c00 member WRF-GEFS ens forecast system courtesy Dr. Stephen Masters.

[Steve]

Solid consensus to Chambers and Jefferson Counties in the sfwmd hurricane plots for 99L. Obviously that's going to change in 6 and again in 12 hours, else the BAMs win. But it's a pipeline.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

[hohnywx]

Solid consensus to Chambers and Jefferson Counties in the sfwmd hurricane plots for 99L. Obviously that's going to change in 6 and again in 12 hours, else the BAMs win. But it's a pipeline.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

Wow, that's the best consensus we've had out of the spaghetti models in days.

[Hurricaneman]

Before joining the other models with development, the Euro seemed to have the best verification with little to no development so I think we should give it credit

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[sponger]

Xtrap finally wins on this one.

[Blinhart]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminf ... latest.png

Now has it going to Sabine Pass.

[Hurricaneman]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/99L_tracks_latest.png

Now has it going to Sabine Pass.

Are you sure that is 99L and not the low east of Florida

actually both features might be 99L in a split

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[MississippiWx]

CMC still developing this into a very respectable tropical cyclone in the Central Gulf. UKMET has been consistent with this as well. Haven't seen a 0z UK run yet, but CMC still gung-ho.

[Alyono]

UK still going bonkers at 0Z

[N2FSU]

CMC still developing this into a very respectable tropical cyclone in the Central Gulf. UKMET has been consistent with this as well. Haven't seen a 0z UK run yet, but CMC still gung-ho.

Yes, and a huge shift east. 12z had landfall in Texas.

[MississippiWx]

UK still going bonkers at 0Z

Details?

[N2FSU]

UK still going bonkers at 0Z

Is it still turning NE around New Orleans like the 12z showed?

[N2FSU]

0z CMC landfall shifts from Texas to about Pensacola:

[sphelps8681]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/99L_tracks_latest.png

Now has it going to Sabine Pass.

This is somewhat off topic but since it is kind of slow, I thought I would share a little something with ya'll. If the moderators need to delete this post that is fine.

We live just North of Sabine Pass. I told my husband we are not staying for another Hurricane. Already been through enough (Rita, Ike, Humberto and I probably can name a few more). Heck my 18 year old has already been through as many Hurricanes as I have. We stayed for all of them. The hurricane part is not near as bad so far(but it is very scary) as the aftermath. If you can leave, LEAVE. I remember during Rita I left because I heard in a town not far from where we were was selling ice. So off me and my then 7 year went leaving the rest of our family behind. Of course there was no ice when we got there but the grocery store in the town happened to be open. I went there to get supplies. No one allowed in but you could them your grocery list of things and they would get them. With no electricity the store the store loaded shopping carts full of the meat that would go bad and it was like a free for all with all the people in the parking lot grabbing all they could out of the carts. It felt very third world. When I drove back after getting my supplies the police had the roads blocked and said I could not come back in. When I explained my family was there and I had my seven year old he still would not let me come back in. I was turned around to go back from where I came with hardly any gas with my child in tow when I realized I had to make this guy understand. Went back through the line and after an hour was told again I could not come through no matter how much I explained my situation. I told him ok but looked at my son and said we are going through and I kept driving till I got back home. I thought to myself I would rather be in jail than driving around with no phone and not knowing where to go. Please don't put your family in a situation where possibly going to jail is better than driving around not knowing what to do.

[South Texas Storms]

UKMET:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 25.1N 82.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2016 60 25.5N 83.8W 1006 27
0000UTC 30.08.2016 72 25.7N 85.7W 1005 26
1200UTC 30.08.2016 84 26.1N 86.4W 1005 24
0000UTC 31.08.2016 96 25.7N 87.1W 1003 25
1200UTC 31.08.2016 108 26.7N 87.5W 1000 40
0000UTC 01.09.2016 120 26.8N 87.9W 995 43
1200UTC 01.09.2016 132 27.0N 88.1W 985 56
0000UTC 02.09.2016 144 27.7N 87.7W 976 66

[AJC3]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/99L_tracks_latest.png

Now has it going to Sabine Pass.

Are you sure that is 99L and not the low east of Florida

actually both features might be 99L in a split

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

It's pretty interesting, albeit messy, around Florida right now. There are very subtle, mostly insignificant features east of FL (91L notwithstanding). Two really weak vort eddies are near 31N 78W and 32.5N 71W, both of which formed in situ in the horizontal cyclonic shear zone which developed there. Additionally, the N-NE extent of the T-wave axis that begat 99L, while dampened out, extends to near 28N 75W. Of course, 91L is spinning around out there too, roughly near 31N 66W.

The 00Z GFS does some weird morph/merger of 91L and a piece of H85 vorticity from the 99L wave and spins up a surface low on the Atlantic side by the middle of next week.

[SeGaBob]

For the first time in a week I'm not interested in what the Euro has to say...

[mobilebay]

Anybody seen the 00z EURO?